Before the 2008 election, I entertained myself (and perhaps a few others) with a little joke that if elected, John McCain would govern like a driver who weaves back and forth across all five lanes of a heavily traveled road.

The trouble is, the American political road only has three-lanes: left, center and right.

The other two lanes, to the extent they exist at all, are shoulders. You can drive on a road’s shoulders safely at a reduced speed for a short stretch. Anything faster or longer is suicidal.

Obama’s part of the little joke? He’d drive the national car 90 miles-per-hour down the left shoulder until he’d hit reality.

Now that Obama has been President since mid-January, we know the truth and the truth is different from the joke.

Obama is in the back seat of a car being driven 110 mph down the left shoulder by Nancy Pelosi.

Obama has wrestled control of the car away from Pelosi on only one issue, Afghanistan, steering his policy into the center lane. Sadly, for him, the public isn’t there with him on that particular issue.

On every other issue, however, the public would rally behind him if he were steering down the center lane. Since he’s too far left on spending, debt, stimulus, taxes, health care, whatever, etc --- his numbers are declining.

Let’s tune in once again to true election expert Charlie Cook. He has poured through a mountain of polling data compiled by Gallup for a recent three-week period and has some solid observations:

Among independents, the president's approval ratings held at 50 percent for the first two weeks, then dropped to 48 percent for the third week, and fell to 44 percent for the following two weeks before ticking up 2 percentage points for the final week. Among Republicans, the decline was less marked.

Obama has lost more ground among moderates than among ideologues, and more among conservative Democrats than within any of the five other ideological, partisan combinations that Gallup monitors.

In other words he’s lost support from voters who spend most of their time in the middle lane.

Charlie is a careful analyst. He says it’s unclear why Obama’s numbers are declining, pointing to the timing of the survey research as occurring after the unemployment rate rose above 10% but before the troop decision on Afghanistan.

Ah, no, Charlie. The public isn’t all that scientific about its own impressions so you shouldn’t over-think poll results.

The public “thinks” by gut instincts. The President is working on issues the public doesn’t support and is ignoring their high (and realistic) anxieties on jobs. Period. Repeat that everyday until November.

The poor man seems to think that small businesses create jobs based upon the funding levels at a rarely-if-ever-effective government agency called SBA or that small business owners might really respond to his new silly little capital gains reduction proposal by hiring new workers despite the continuing, unprecedented uncertainties and risks in the real world.

I believe the public is thinking, “OMG, he’s against what we need and for what we’re against.”

If Obama doesn’t jump up from the back seat early in 2010 and take over the wheel from Herr Nancy, the voters will remove her from the Speakership. (He won’t and let’s hope*.)

If Nancy is not Speaker, how will this affect President Obama?

His left-shoulder agenda will be DOA and, as a direct result, he will be reelected in 2012. Go ask former two-term President Clinton about his experience with Speaker Gingrich.

Happy Newt Year, Mr. President!

Anonymously, Mick Danger

*Hey, Mick, explain this hope thing about maybe the Republicans deposing Nancy as Speaker.

Look, some angry centrist voters won’t vote at all. Energized conservatives will walk through gunfire to vote.

Here’s a table from a recent Daily Kos poll to their question: “Will You Vote In The '10 Elections?”

It all comes down to the independents.

Elections are won by whichever candidate crosses the post first. The mood among vulnerable House Democratic incumbents right now is a combination of panic and mind-altering medication. I read that mood as a crude barometer showing me that independents who do vote next November are getting themselves ready to vote against Democrats because they are disgusted with the Democratic brand.

The firm Pollster.com paints it well:

It’s noteworthy that the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) is mad that the President isn’t throwing trillions into their communities as the unemployment rates in their districts are double (or more) than the national average and show no signs of improvement. It’s noteworthy that moderately conservative Democratic incumbents (Blue Dogs) feel that they are being surrendered to Nancy’s need for speed in the left shoulder. How does the CBC feel about the Blue Dogs? As if the needs of African-Americans are being traded to serve the Blue Dogs. What?

The only thing which explains this madness is that Nancy is governing as a Committee of Herself and that her party members are starting to crack up.

Does it matter that some Democrat incumbents are quitting? Only a little.

It really only matters that centrist voters are quitting the Democrats.

Does it matter that the Republican brand remains damaged?

Kinda, but no. You can’t fix the brand before you regain power because no one will pay enough attention to your policy pronouncements until they exist as real possibilities. “Fixing the brand” follows from a ride down a boulevard called Good Government. Don’t talk about that now, it makes you seem self-interested at a time when everyone is afraid for their own family’s future.

What should Republicans do to “regain power”?

Only three things:

1. Be the other candidate and otherwise STFU.

2. Do not scare the independents more than Pelosi scares them.

3. Do not offer complicated policy solutions.

Simple & smart policy proposals (for example, ones which common sense says actually creates jobs) are fine to mention every so often, but don’t talk about them too much or you will violate Rules 1 and 2.

Winning Republican campaigns for 2010 House races will not be based upon being the better candidate, but upon being an acceptable other candidate. Period. Repeat that everyday until November.

So, back to the joke:

Election day, be the brake on our national runaway car. The day after election day 2010, start steering us back to the center lane via the School of Checks-and-Balances.

Divided government leads to Good Government Boulevard.

Wait a minute: "Obama is in the back seat of a car being driven 110 mph down the left shoulder by Nancy Pelosi." Hmm.

Looked on MapQuest for alternate driving directions using the "Left Shoulder" and to solve for Estimated Drive Time at 110 mph.

It keeps defaulting to "take a left on Route 666" with Drive Time as "Train Wreck to Oblivion". Will try Google Maps/Directions.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:27 PM | link  

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:34 PM | link  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:57 PM | link  

Monday, December 07, 2009