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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Saturday, July 18, 2009 CAN OBAMA-CARE BE STOPPED? My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" isn't so sure:Pretty decent story in the Washington Post today which presents us with yet another teaching moment. Today’s Episode: Democrats attack Democrats and another South Carolina Republican cracks up.Well, I had to let Mick know that I happen to be a pretty big fan of Jim DeMint: Your knowledge on all this outweighs mine a million to one, but do you really read that implication into the DeMint quote? Seems he’s just stating a political-strategic fact, similar to what many Democrats said in 2005 when they signaled their need to crush Social Security reform as a means of knocking Bush off his pedestal.Mick responds, Points well taken and I’m taking a step back. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:48 PM |
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Friday, July 17, 2009 HOW MUCH CAN YOU EARN? ASK BARNEY. HE KNOWS Here's Barney Frank, a blowhard congressman who thinks he can determine what executives ought to earn. Frank says,The recent news of compensation on Wall Street shows that some financial leaders yearn for the stirring return of yesteryear and demonstrates the need to adopt legislation on executive pay...we will consider legislation to empower federal regulators to proscribe inappropriate or imprudent compensation practices as part of solvency regulation of all financial firms. The committee is acting because of a broad consensus of leading national and international finance experts including Paul Volcker and the Group of 30 and Lord Turner of the United Kingdom who believe that compensation structures were a factor in the financial crisis. Both the United Kingdom and the European Union are contemplating similar rules.My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" says, Some might say is all part of a comprehensive plan to punish success. I think Barney really believes in hyper-regulatory control. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:45 PM |
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YOU'VE REALLY GOT TO LOVE ZELL MILLER Can this guy turn a phrase, or what? Today, we're spending like we're Paris Hilton, regulating like we're Ralph Nader, nationalizing like we're Hugo Chavez, printing money like we're the Weimar Republic and taxing like we're, well, the Democratic Congress. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:39 AM |
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THIS HEALTH CARE REFORM MIGHT BE TAXING US TO DEATH My SmartMoney.com column today. Just how bad for investors is the new proposed legislation for so-called health care reform? Well, how much time do you have? Let's start with the price. This thing is going to cost trillions of dollars. And how do you think it's going to get paid for? Investors are going to get taxed. You are going to get taxed. It's that simple. And people without health insurance -- the very people whom this is supposed to help -- are going to get taxed too. And millions of them will be left without insurance (even though they have to pay higher taxes). First, to the investors. According to the bill passed this week by the House of Representatives, any individual who makes more than $280,000 a year -- or any couple that makes more than $350,000 -- is going to pay a surcharge of at least 1% of income above those levels. The more you make, the more you pay. The biggest earners will face a surcharge of 5.4%. It will kick in for tax year 2011, which is when the 2003 tax cuts "sunset" away and revert to the previous higher levels anyway. Put it together, and you have a serious tax hike for the kind of people who do most of the investing in this country. According to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, the top marginal federal income tax rate will be 45%. It you take state taxes into account, it's off the charts. According to the non-partisan Tax Foundation, if you include state income taxes, people in 39 out of 50 states will be above the 50% tax rate. My home state, the People's Democratic Republic of California, will boast a rate of 56.6%. Did you happen to notice that "for sale" sign out in front of my house? With taxes like that, I'm moving somewhere else, and I pretty don't much care where (I hear taxes on the moon are especially low). Investors pay another way, too. Suppose you own stock in one of the health care companies that gets destroyed when government takes over? Don't think it won't happen. Since Barack Obama was inaugurated in January on a mandate of "change" -- including so-called health care "reform" -- the S&P 500 has returned 17.4%. But with the threat of "reform" hanging over it, the health care sector has only returned 4.8%. The difference -- 12.6% -- is a loss for investors. People who can't afford to invest will pay, too. Under the House's bill, every American would be required to have health care insurance, whether he wants it or not. That's the way it is in socialist dictatorships -- anything not forbidden is mandatory. If you choose not to get insurance, you get hit with an "excise tax," which is a fancy way of saying a fine, or a penalty. It's approximately 2.5% of your income. The government will give you insurance for free if your income is less than four times the poverty line. But suppose you're a middle class working guy or gal -- you're not impoverished, but you need to save every penny. You're young and healthy, so you've decided to do without insurance. Sorry -- you have to pay the excise tax. So you look around and figure out if you can get health care insurance -- which you don't even want -- for less than the amount of the excise tax. If you can't, then you pay the tax. And you're still not insured. Or if you decide you might as well buy the insurance anyway, you've still been "taxed" -- because you're spending money on something you don't want or need, in a way that you didn't choose. There's good research that suggests that there are as many as 8 million Americans who will be in this situation. Insured or uninsured, well-off enough to pay the surcharge or not, everyone is going to be hurt by this. Because when you raise taxes like this, you suck money out of the economy that could go into spending, saving and investing. Second, you put government in charge of something that ought to a matter of private initiative and personal choice. And don't tell me that only government can step in and prevent runaway "health care inflation." There's no such thing. The average overall inflation rate has been 3.8% per year over history. For health care, it's been 5.5%. Higher, but not exactly a "runaway" number that justifies the government seizing control of a sector that represents about 17% of gross domestic product. Why is "health care inflation" higher than overall inflation? For all we know, it could be because health care has so many amazing innovations -- drugs, tests, procedures that couldn't have even been imagined just a decade ago -- that it's impossible to track the "price." Or it could be because health care is already very highly regulated, subsidized and otherwise interfered with by government. If there is inflation there, maybe it's because the private sector hasn't been able to work its capitalist magic. The banking sector is also heavily , regulated, subsidized and otherwise interfered with by government. And look where that got us (ever hear of the credit crisis?). And it's historical inflation rate is higher than the overall inflation rate, too. But look at food. Other than basic safety inspection, food production and distribution is hardly regulated at all. And it's not that it's not essential to life -- it's more essential than health care. The private sector handles it all. And its historical inflation rate is lower than the overall rate, not higher. To me, all this is so simple, so obvious, I just can't believe a nation of intelligent people will destroy itself this way. So I think it's worth a bet that we'll pull back from the brink and reject this particular bit of madness. I think it's possible that stocks have rallied this week precisely because this call for ruinous taxes is sure to be rejected, and when it is, it will put the high-tax genii back in his bottle for a long while. So watch this one carefully. It's a test case. If this nearly criminal tax-and-don't-insure scheme is enacted into law, the nascent bull market is over. But if I'm right, and it gets rejected, then stocks could move a lot higher once they see that it's still possible for the government of this country to do the right thing every once in a while. Update... "Mick Danger" adds some good thoughts: Clever, smart and convincing. One boo-boo: the House “three-committee” bill has not “passed;” it has merely been introduced. It was “reported out” by the Ways & Means Committee but it faces a much tougher environment over inside Henry Waxman’s Energy & Commerce Committee where seven of the 52 Blue Dogs sit. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:33 AM |
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Thursday, July 16, 2009 IS THERE NO LIMIT TO WALMART'S PANDERING? I used to admire this company so much... oh well... sigh. From today's Journal:Wal-Mart Thursday will tell suppliers they must calculate and disclose the full environmental costs of making their products, then allow Wal-Mart to distill the information into a rating system that shoppers will see alongside prices for everything from T-shirts to televisions...But then again, what do you expect them to do, when faced with a flood-tide of anti-business regulatory threats? People familiar with the company's plans said that Wal-Mart is angling to get ahead of potential U.S. environmental labeling regulations -- they've already begun appearing in Britain and Japan -- and to set a standard on its own terms that the retail industry can adopt to communicate the green hue of goods it sells. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:00 AM |
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Wednesday, July 15, 2009 INVESTIGATING THE WALL STREET CASINO It takes a gambler to catch a gambler. Look who Senate majority leader Harry Reid has appointed to the new commission tasked with investigating the financial crisis. These two are obviously real experts in high finance (and local friends of Harry, too).Heather Murren, a retired Managing Director for Global Securities Research and Economics at Merrill Lynch. ...In 2004, she was recognized by Las Vegas magazine of the Las Vegas Review-Journal as one of the Influential Businesswomen of the year... Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:47 AM |
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NOT THE SAFE WAY My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" has some thoughts on an op-ed in the Journal, a couple days ago, "How Safeway Is Cutting Health-Care Costs," by the company's CEO Steven A. Burd. This op-ed is better than most and worth holding onto. It's a few days old, but it's likely to increase in relevance as the summer wears on. Bear with me; you'll see what I mean. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:00 AM |
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Tuesday, July 14, 2009 LOOKING FOR A TIPPING POINT I'm hoping that Charlie Rangel's proposal to soak "the rich" to pay for so-called health care reform will be the red flag that mobilizes opinion against the Obama administration's runaway tax-and-spend agenda. Rangel must know he's playing with dynamite. On his committee's website, otherwise dripping with propaganda about so-called "reform," there's not a word about the tax hikes as of this posting.The idea that this will be a tipping point is anecdotally supported by a posting on the left-leaning Tax Vox blog, by Howard Gleckman. In my years of reading this blog, there's rarely anything but sympathy for raising taxes on anybody and everybody, especially "the rich." But here Gleckman offers a long list of everything that's wrong with Rangel's proposal. But I especially like the gratuitous but wonderful editorial comment that he throws in at the end. Remember, this is a very left-leaning blog: Why is asking just a few million people to pay for health reform a good thing?Maybe there is hope. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:03 AM |
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Monday, July 13, 2009 UH, WELL, YEAH... Meanwhile, while the Treasury tries to figure out how to give TARP money to small business, when it is targeted by statute only to financial firms, the giant credit firm CIT totters on the brink of survival.CIT executives were worried that customers would be rattled by reports over the weekend that it hired a prominent law firm to prepare for a possible bankruptcy filing after so far failing to get additional government assistance.Those skittish customers... Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:33 AM |
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WILL THE TARP INCOMPETENCE NEVER END? They still can't get the last rescue straight. From Bloomberg: Bank of America Corp. is trying to avoid paying billions of dollars in fees to U.S. taxpayers for guarantees against losses at Merrill Lynch & Co., saying the rescue agreement was never signed and the funding never used.And now this, from the Washington Post: The Obama administration is developing an initiative to take money from the $700 billion rescue program for the banking system and make it available to millions of small businesses, which officials say are essential to any economic recovery because they employ so many people… Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:25 AM |
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