The Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid is a trademark of Donald L. Luskin

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Republicans and the Populist Temptation
Wall Street Journal
February 9, 2010
Why Taxing Stock Trades Is a Really Bad Idea
Wall Street Journal
January 6, 2010

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Peter Sellers and Peter Bull in ''Dr. Strangelove'' Columbia Pictures, 1964 -- Click to order!

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The Happy Body
Aniela and Jerzy Gregorek

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Langley Schools Music Project

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Star Trek

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Speed Racer

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"The road is cleared," said Galt.
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He raised his hand
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Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Friday, June 26, 2009

WILL THE GLOBAL WARMING TAX PASS THE HOUSE TODAY?   "Mick" thinks its a defining moment for Nancy Pelosi:
Here, this morning’s buzz: Pelosi is still short of the votes on BTU Tax Deux, er, Waxman-Markey.

If they don’t have the votes by 2 pm, the buzz will shift to “will they pull the bill”?

Guesses about how far short have no credibility. Having done vote counting for 31 years, those who know the hard counts, don’t leak.

Three outcomes:

If it passes, a pollster I trust say it could swing 10-12 seats in 2010.

If it gets pulled, it creates havoc on the left. What can they bring back?

If it fails, it’s both a loser for the Dems, now & in 2010.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:26 AM | link  

PROPERTY RIGHTS ARE PROPERTY RIGHTS WHEN THE PROPERTY IS OWNED BY A UNION!   Congress is looking at taxing so-called "gold plated" health care plans in order to pay for Obamacare. That might impose a tax on some legacy union plans that are extremeley generous by current standards. Surely -- surely! -- those union plans will be grandfathered in without the tax. Fair is fair, at least if you are a union!
Gerald Shea, an AFL-CIO official lobbying for health-care reform, said grandfathering benefits negotiated in a collective bargaining agreement is a “common thing when there is a big change in federal law.”

“Once a collective bargaining agreement is set, employer’s budgets are set, workers expectations are set. It doesn’t make sense to go back in the middle of the contract and change it,” he said. “If they didn’t do this, it would be shocking and if they do, it’s a normal course of events.”

Union groups and workers said Congress shouldn’t target contractually-negotiated benefits.

My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" points out that unions don't seem so concerned with preserving the contractual expectations of other people -- only themsleves. Remember the way Chrysler bondholders had their contractual rights trampled? Mick says, "Read this quote and substitute 'bond' for 'collective bargaining' and 'investor' for 'worker.'"

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:28 AM | link  


Thursday, June 25, 2009

BLINDING GLIMPSE OF THE STATISTICALLY OBVIOUS   From this morning's Wall Street Journal:
Global flows of foreign-direct investment halved during the first three months of 2009 as the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions plummeted, a United Nations agency said Wednesday... "If the first-quarter trend continues, projections for the whole of 2009 are for global FDI inflows to drop by close to half."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:44 AM | link  


Wednesday, June 24, 2009

GO AHEAD, MAKE MY BARBECUE   Our Texas correspondent Richard Ridgeway sends in this example of vernacular architecture seen in Centerville.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:39 AM | link  

LET'S HOPE IT DOESN'T COME TO THIS   When the FOMC meets this afternoon, let's hope they remember that there are better solutions to inflation than beans and chicken-heads, as illustrated in this cookbook from the 1970s.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:57 AM | link  

THE NUB OF THE PROBLEM   Holman Jenkins hits on it exactly this morning in the Wall Street Journal:
There's no question that the Obama administration has opted for an unspoken policy of regulatory forbearance with respect to various too-big-to-fail banks...

This is a bet on growth, the only decent solution out there, because neither nationalization nor capital raising by banks can get the Federal Reserve off the hook of inflating away the banking system's massive additional losses on consumer, business and housing loans if growth doesn't come back.

True enough. But how can it work if the Obama administration is doing everything it can to retard growth?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:53 AM | link  


Tuesday, June 23, 2009

IF ONLY IT WERE THIS EASY   Here's a comic book put out by the Fed in 2000 (cover just below, and selected frames in the three posts below this post). I'm glad they have this playbook to guide them in the difficult monetary policy decisions they have to make nowadays.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:00 AM | link  


Monday, June 22, 2009

IF ONLY IT WERE THIS EASY II   A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon the Fed is running the whole economy.

Getting banks to lend? No problemo.

Getting construction going again? All in a day's work.

Support the currency? Just tell me how high you want it.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:57 PM | link  

IF ONLY IT WERE THIS EASY III   Here's the mistake the Fed has made in the banking crisis: no red prayer shawl.

But at least we can always prevent those nasty banks from arbitraging the Fed.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:54 PM | link  

IF ONLY IT WERE THIS EASY IV   The more debt the Fed monetizes, the more politically independent it will be!

But thankfully there will always be a Congress to grill the Chairman.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:52 PM | link  

TERRIFIC KRUGMAN TAKE-DOWN   By the incomparable Alan Reynolds at Cato:
...claiming Art Laffer is "way off base" about future inflation, Krugman insisted "for the 1.6 trillionth time, we are in a liquidity trap." That makes 1.6 trillion times he's been wrong about that.

His column says, "A rising monetary base isn't inflationary when you're in a liquidity trap. America's monetary base doubled between 1929 and 1939; prices fell 19%. Japan's monetary base rose 85% between 1997 and 2003; deflation continued apace."

A 100% increase in the U.S. monetary over 10 years (1929-1939) amounts to just 7% a year. That is scarcely comparable to the 113% increase over the past 12 months. Besides, the 1930s do not support his "liquidity trap" argument once we examine what happened when.

To say U.S. prices fell 19% from 1929 to 1939, for example, means they fell much more than 19% from 1929 to 1933 before rising from 1934 to 1937 when the monetary base was growing.

With the exception of a brief Fed easing in the spring of 1932, the U.S. monetary base was generally falling or flat from January 1929 to early 1934. From March 1934 to July 1937, by contrast, the rate of growth of the monetary base jumped above 16% on a year-to-year basis. If we had been in a "liquidity trap" that would have had no effect. Yet real gross domestic product grew by 9.5% a year from 1934 to 1937, and consumer prices by 2.6% a year. Since the facts contradict his liquidity trap thesis, Krugman pretends the rebound after 1933 was "helped along by New Deal policies."

On the contrary, Christina Romer's research clearly demonstrates that strong rebound of 1934-37 was "helped along" by a 42% increase in the money supply. She found, "monetary developments were very important and fiscal policy was of little consequence ... Even in 1942, the year that the economy returned to its trend path, the effects of fiscal policy were small."

Thanks to Brian McCarthy for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:29 PM | link  

GREEN POWER, OR UNION POWER?   Our DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" points out this great example of the law of unintended consequences. A society loaded up with laws and regulations makes itself vulnerable of selective use of them, not just by regulators and law enforcement officials, but by special interest groups. Even environmental regs can be abused -- and even when the target of the abuse is itself an environmentally friendly entity. From the New York Times (of all places)...
SACRAMENTO — When a company called Ausra filed plans for a big solar power plant in California, it was deluged with demands from a union group that it study the effect on creatures like the short-nosed kangaroo rat and the ferruginous hawk.

By contrast, when a competitor, BrightSource Energy, filed plans for an even bigger solar plant that would affect the imperiled desert tortoise, the same union group, California Unions for Reliable Energy, raised no complaint. Instead, it urged regulators to approve the project as quickly as possible.

One big difference between the projects? Ausra had rejected demands that it use only union workers to build its solar farm, while BrightSource pledged to hire labor-friendly contractors.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:23 PM | link