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Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Thursday, October 09, 2008

SO WHAT ARE WE WAITING FOR, GUYS?   The end of the world? Okay, then. Time's up. From Investors Business Daily:
Along with ending the short-selling ban, Treasury's latest plan "is an invitation to speculative attacks in which firms at risk are driven into ruinously dilutive recapitalizations," wrote Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics.

Luskin says Treasury is taking too long to deploy capital, with no buys made in three weeks since Paulson unveiled the plan.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:46 PM | link  

THEY CALL HIM FLIPPER, FLIPPER...   Richard Ridgeway has some good comments on the real problem at the root of the subprime mess: unscrupulous housing speculators who took out mortgages they had no intention of repaying. Good reading.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:26 AM | link  

CNBC ASIA REPLAY   I co-hosted Squawk Box on CNBC Asia this morning. As you can see, I don't think much of yesterday's global coordinated rate cuts.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:15 AM | link  

WHAT'S LEFT FOR THEM TO LOOT?   Your 401(k) account, of course. Congress has its eye on you. From Investment News, here's what the pols and the social workers have in mind:
A wide range of sweeping changes to the 401(k) system were proposed Tuesday at a hearing on how the market crisis has devastated retirement savings plans.

Chief among them was eliminating $80 billion in tax savings for higher-income people enrolled in 401(k) retirement savings plans.

This was suggested by the chairman of the House Committee on Education and Labor.

“With respect to the 401(k), it appears to be a plan that is not really well-devised for the changes in the market,” Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., said.

“We’ve invested $80 billion into subsidizing this activity,” he said, referring to tax breaks allowed for 401(k) contributions and savings.

With savings rates going down, “what do we have to start to think about in Congress of whether or not we want to continue and invest that $80 billion for a policy that is not generating what we … say it should?” Mr. Miller said.

Congress should let workers trade their 401(k) assets for guaranteed retirement accounts made up of government bonds, suggested Teresa Ghilarducci, an economics professor at The New School for Social Research in New York.

Thanks to Steve Ambos for the link.

Update... Shawn Smith comments,

Um, isn't that what Social Security is?
Update [10/11/2008]... Reader David Engel comments,
Most worker’s investments in stocks are through 401Ks. If 401K plans do not allow stock investments, then that reduces the number of investors significantly. Investors are more likely to be sympathetic to business concerns than noninvestors. So maybe the entire motivation behind this maneuver is to reduce the number of voters sympathetic to business concerns. In other words, this is a political move.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:01 AM | link  


Wednesday, October 08, 2008

AH, NOW IT BECOMES CLEAR   According to the New York Times,
Having tried without success to unlock frozen credit markets, the Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many United States banks to try to restore confidence in the financial system, according to government officials.
I'm not aware of the Treasury "having tried" at all. Last week it got authority to implement the $700 billion "TARP" program, but so far it has done nothing whatsoever to exercise that authority. Congress and the American people were sold on the massive rescue package as a program for the government's acquisition of illiquid assets. But it seems that was the bait. Here is the switch: the idea is really for the government to take ownership positions in banks. The Times reports,
At a news conference on Wednesday, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., pointedly named the Treasury’s new authority to inject capital into institutions as the first in a list of new powers included in the bailout law.
It's true. Here's Paulson's statement:
Specifically, the EESA [Emergency Economic Stabilization Act] empowers Treasury to use up to $700 billion to inject capital into financial institutions, to purchase or insure mortgage assets, and to purchase any other troubled assets that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve deem necessary to promote financial market stability.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:36 PM | link  


Tuesday, October 07, 2008

MUST VIEWING   Here's SNL's dead-on parody of the $700 billion bailout. Thanks to reader Todd Tharp for the link.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:15 PM | link  

THE SHORT-SELLING BAN IS SET TO EXPIRE   Is the SEC so stunningly stupid that it will let this happen? Here's USA Today.
...Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacro, an investment strategy consultant, predicted the ban's expiration would unleash a wave of short selling of shares in the battered financial sector. "The shorts will pick some stock to attack," Luskin said.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:27 PM | link  

A QUESTION FOR THE CANDIDATES   From reader Michael J. Gresham:
Here is the question I would love to see asked at tonight's Town Hall meeting between Barack Obama and John McCain that will not be asked...

If the problem that caused the US banking crisis is being under regulated why are seeing bailouts need in places much more regulated than the US such as Iceland, Germany, and the European Union in general?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:36 PM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video of my appearance last Wednesday... you know, a hundred million years ago (in market years, that is).


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:17 AM | link  

"IMMEDIATELY"? YES, "IMMEDIATELY"!!   Sorry for not posting more the last week. I've been traveling, and in case you haven't heard, we have a global financial crisis on our hands. Here's what I told USA Today about yesterday's dramatic stock drop:
Lawmakers’ initial rejection of the $700 billion plan to rid banks of toxic real estate assets hurt investor confidence, cost the government valuable time in implementing fixes and created intense uncertainty that sparked selling, says Don Luskin, investment strategist at TrendMacro.

“Why is it that Treasury is not there immediately to implement the authority that it said it needed immediately” in the rescue plan? Luskin asks. “That disappointment, That failure to act once the authority was granted is the reason why the market is selling off today.”

President Bush said Monday that “it’s going to take awhile” for the Treasury’s plan to work.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:43 AM | link  


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