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Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Saturday, August 30, 2008

PRETTY AMUSING   Reader Mark Spahn points us to an epic poem:
I will tell the story of Obamacles through my scribe Iowahawk.

But this shit is copyrighted, so reproduce at your peril.

OK, so follow this link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:34 PM | link  

EVERY ONCE IN A BLUE MOON...   ...David Brooks earns his keep. From his most recent column:
We got to know Barack and Michelle Obama, two tall, thin, rich, beautiful people who don’t perspire, but who nonetheless feel compassion for their squatter and smellier fellow citizens. We know that Barack could have gone to a prestigious law firm, like his big donors in the luxury boxes, but he chose to put his ego aside to become a professional politician, president of the United States and redeemer of the human race. We heard about his time as a community organizer, the three most fulfilling months of his life.

We were thrilled by his speech in front of the Greek columns, which were conscientiously recycled from the concert, “Yanni, Live at the Acropolis.” We were honored by his pledge, that if elected president, he will serve at least four months before running for higher office. We were moved by his campaign slogan, “Vote Obama: He’s better than you’ll ever be.”


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:57 PM | link  

OPRAH, ARE YOU LISTENING?   Here's my DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" with a really bad idea for our "book club."
I have an arrangement to trade books with a good friend who describes himself as an unabashed liberal. I, myself, am an occasionally bashed conservative.

I gave him this excellent history lesson: Empires of the Sea: The Siege of Malta, the Battle of Lepanto, and the Contest for the Center of the World, by Roger Crowley.

He gave me some pablum on Obama's economic platform: Obamanomics: How Bottom-Up Economic Prosperity Will Replace Trickle-Down Economics, by John R. Talbott.

Chapter one is title "Economic Justice". In the first long paragraph of this chapter, squeezed between long quotes from a very typically trite Obama speech, we learn from author John Talbott that "fairness and justice are extremely important concepts."

This is what passes for analysis? Are they also "awesome?" Totally.

So I googled this Talbott guy and his credential are more impressive than his writing. Former investment banker at Goldman Sachs (but isn’t everyone?), earned a BS in Civil Engineering at Cornell, worked as an engineer for Bechtel Corporation, and then received an MBA in Finance from The Anderson School at UCLA. Oh, and he predicted the housing collapse in two previous books.

Could it be he's dumbing down the Obama act to sell books? No, sadly, I think the guy believes this stuff. His fans are just a-buzzing with excitement.

Evidently, Justice and Fairness’s first order of business requires injustice and unfairness to those who produce in order to yield the bounty which shall be redistributed to those who consume. Groovy, that’s economic policy equivalent of stealing a car without gasoline. Go Cap N Trade Yourself!

Note the importance Mr. Talbott gives to banning corporate lobbyists. Certainly. Take them away on Day One! At 3 a.m.! Can't afford to allow participation in the political world by the owners, managers and employees of the private sector. The First Amendment is only for the peoples!

Only after I slogged through Mr. Talbott’s junkyard did I find this review which makes for far better reading than the book itself. Shorter, too. And it contains such gems as:

Talbott fabricates statistics. The current unemployment rate is 5%. But, Talbott refers to speculations from the Connecticut's Green Party in representing unemployment at 12% to 15%. Later, he even goes higher suggesting it is closer to 18%. He also stated that the poverty rate has doubled since the late eighties. Actually, it steadily decreased from 13.4% in 1987 to 12.3% in 2006 (most recent data from US Census). Talbott arbitrarily dismisses GDP figures as simply the sum of fixing mistakes (pollution clean up), over-consumption, and activities that were recently added such as homemaking services. This allows him to dismiss the strong U.S. record of growing real GDP per capita for decades.
If Obama wins, I expect to see Mr. Talbott nominated for some post, possibly as Deputy Secretary for Rent Control at the newly established Ministry of Fairness.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:08 PM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   It's been a wearying week on "Kudlow & Co." First it was Gary Shilling going all weepy. Then is was Quentin Hardy biting my ankles. Then yesterday it was Michael Pento -- who, before uncorking his green faucet of econobabble masquerading as analysis, just couldn't resist gratuitously dissing me. Who is this rude young fellow? According to his bio, his "more than 16 years of industry experience" includes having "worked on the floor of the N.Y.S.E." Interesting. I worked on the NYSE myself, as a trader, when the Big Board introduced options trading for the first time. In fact, I traded the very first option contract ever traded on the NYSE floor. Funny, I didn't see Pento there. Different times, no doubt, as my own "industry" experince stretches back longer. But then again, one doesn't remember every clerk.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:04 PM | link  


Friday, August 29, 2008

SARAH PALIN MUST REALLY BE A HIT WITH DIE-HARD CONSERVATIVES   This proves it. My Goldwaterite friend Dave Duval writes in to say,
And let me tell you something -- for the first time in my adult lifetime during this campaign, I am really proud of my presumptive nominee.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:32 PM | link  

THE FED THINKS OF EVERYTHING   Monetary policy designed esecially for Paul Krugman and Robert Reich.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:16 PM | link  

AND THESE GUYS ALL PRETEND TO BE POPULISTS   Great story in today's Journal about frenzied trading in high-end perks at the Denver DNC, with admission tickets to the convention floor used as a kind of currency. Let's forget the BS about Obama raising all his money $10 at a time on the Internet. This is how it's always been done, and this is how it's still being done.
Even as Hillary Clinton publicly urged her backers this week to line up behind Barack Obama, some of her onetime fund-raisers have been working behind the scenes to hit up donors for the new cause. One of their tools: hard-to-get credentials for big events.

Two Miami men, developer Chris Korge and lawyer Alex Heckler, were among Sen. Clinton's most prolific money raisers and now sit on Sen. Obama's finance committee. They have collaborated to raise nearly $1 million for the Illinois senator since early June.

In Denver, they have been obtaining tickets and luxury hotel rooms for those willing to give big donations to the Democratic National Committee, which can accept up to $33,000 per individual.

On a recent day, the two men walked to a back ballroom of a Denver hotel. The room resembled a casino counting room. Party officials inserted credentials into envelopes and awarded them to donors and bundlers -- people who gather donations from friends and colleagues -- based on the size of the contributions.

Mr. Heckler tore open a fat envelope. Inside were thirteen separate passes for events in and around the convention site. The clerk smiled. "Mr. Heckler, you appear to be well-equipped," she said.

...Amarilis Osorio and her husband, Claudio, a Miami Beach, Fla., entrepreneur, decided at the last minute to attend the convention. The couple held a fund-raiser at their house earlier this month with Sen. Obama's wife, Michelle, and raised $400,000. "We had to fly commercial -- a private jet was too expensive," said Ms. Osorio. "And our hotel room is dreadful."

Mr. Korge handed over two hall passes and two others known as Lexus passes, which gave the bearer access to a high-end restaurant within the convention arena. For hoi polloi, arena food consists largely of hot dogs and pizza.

"I'll see what I can do about the hotel room," Mr. Korge said. He later found the couple a room at the luxury Brown Palace Hotel.

"We're trying to help out people we think are going to belly up for Obama in the next couple of weeks," Mr. Korge said. "We need to treat them good."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:47 AM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Ankle-bitten by Quentin Hardy. You could see him shifting and bouncing and looking around nervously during the whole segment, waiting for his moment to take his little nip at me -- which he finally gets up the courage to do at the very end, when he thinks I won't have a chance to respond. Obviously he's been planning this little move for the last month, ever since our last TV encounter, just waiting to be on with me again. So should I get a rabies shot? Nah.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:25 AM | link  


Thursday, August 28, 2008

THIS IS AN HISTORIC BLOG POST!   I'm making this post on the 45th anniversary -- to the day! -- of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech. That's all. I didn't really have anything to say.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:23 PM | link  

FOLLOW-UP FROM FROM TONIGHT'S "KUDLOW"   In the unlikely event that anyone gives a damn about what Quentin Hardy was talking about on "Kudlow & Co." tonight about how I "denigrated" him "dishonestly" in a blog posting after our last appearance together, here it is. Check it out and judge for yourself. This was the show in which Hardy thought it was witty to accuse me of glue-sniffing. Now that's denigration. And it's dishonest, too. I don't sniff glue, I mainline it.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:23 PM | link  


Wednesday, August 27, 2008

IF OBAMA IS A SYMBOL OF EVERYTHING THAT'S RIGHT, THEN HOW CAN EVERYTHING BE SO WRONG?   The media gushing about Barack Obama has become nearly unbearable. Here is Michael Gerson in the Washington Post this morning.
Obama...is part of a great moral story involving aspiration, faith and the struggle for racial equality. It is the story of lives and wages stolen by fraud and violence, of families broken at the auction block, of millions who died with their hopes unfulfilled, of millions who never abandoned hope. The story of self-evident truths greater than the flawed men who put them to paper, and of courageous men and women who claimed those promises in fact and in law.

This is the reason I will set my sons before the television set to watch Obama's speech. Because it is not "some men" but "all men." Because a historical journey that began in the Middle Passage can end in the Oval Office. Because a "dream deferred" can be fulfilled.

My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" comments,
I won't mock his swooning for Barack; his emotions are up to him. His grasp of facts, though, is a problem.

Gerson appears to be confused, and writes confusingly, about how Americans move up the ladder. He assumes upward mobility has stopped.

Inequality is inseparable from liberty in a society that rewards striving -- but inequality becomes morally unjustifiable in the absence of economic mobility. America cannot accept the existence of a permanent underclass without altering its defining ideals.
Here's the not-secret formula to success in America: study and learn, work hard, make your own luck, don't get addicted, accept help from friends and draw your strength and purpose from faith and family. Works every time and at every level, especially for the poor.

Worked for Obama, despite being abandoned by his father.

Gerson babbles about Slavery, Katrina, Unity and Justice? Gosh, Gerson, sit down and STFU.

"Permanent underclass"? No country has ever done more to build a ladder to help individuals climb up than America.

Obama can serve as a role model if he tells the truth about his own success, not some typical leftist BS about "inequality" as if it's Archie Bunker's fault that some Americans are poor. The party of the teachers unions ought to think about how to make school harder if they want to increase upward mobility. Instead, they want to gut NCLB because it's too hard on teachers.

Here's what Obama ought to say: Try crackin' a book instead of bookin' some crack.

And maybe Obama could thank his mother. She deserves more credit than he does.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:57 PM | link  

WE TOLD YOU THERE WOULD BE A BRANDING PROBLEM   Did we call it, or what? Now this, from the Dallas Morning News blog:
Charlie Wilson -- he of "Charlie Wilson's War" fame -- rallied a midday gathering of Texans Monday with a call to end the war in Iraq. The former Texas congressman said the U.S. should have kept its focus on Afghanistan and never gone into Iraq.

... "We should be led by Osama bin Laden," he said, then quickly corrected himself. "I mean Obama and Biden."

Thanks to E. M. Schulze for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:13 AM | link  


Tuesday, August 26, 2008

OBAMA BIN BIDEN: THE CULTURE OF CORRUPTION   The Obama campaign faults John McCain for having seven houses. But the one house Obama's got he obtained crookedly, through his connections with corrupt Chicago businessman Tony Rezko. Now it turns out that Joe Biden is mixed up with Rezko, too. Didn't they vet this guy? From the Chicago Sun Times:
Biden has described himself as a 30-year friend of a key figure in the Rezko trial who's pleaded guilty to a federal extortion charge in Chicago and is awaiting sentencing.

When the Delaware senator began contemplating his own 2008 presidential run, he initially was helped by Chicago lawyer Joseph Cari Jr., who also served as Biden's Midwest field director in his failed 1988 bid for president.

In 2005, Cari admitted to taking part in an $850,000 kickback scheme that prosecutors say was part of a larger political fund-raising operation for Gov. Blagojevich overseen by Rezko, who was convicted in June of wide-ranging corruption involving state deals.

On the day Cari's name first surfaced in the federal probe of the state Teachers Retirement System, the former finance chairman for the Democratic National Committee and for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was to have hosted a Biden fund-raiser in Chicago. Cari was a no-show at that July 25, 2005, event.

Offering Cari a vote of confidence at the time, Biden said, "All I know is Joe Cari is a friend, and he's an honorable guy, but I don't know anything beyond that."

...Two other donors whose names surfaced in the Rezko case -- Chicago lawyers Myron "Mike" Cherry and Anthony Licata -- donated to Biden's U.S. Senate campaign, as well. Cherry has given Biden $5,900, while Licata gave $1,000. Neither Cherry nor Licata has been accused of any criminal wrongdoing.

Earlier this year, in a bid to distance Obama from Rezko, the Illinois senator's campaign fund gave away to charity an amount equal to what had been contributed to the Democratic presidential hopeful by Cari, Cherry and Licata.

Thanks to Jameson Campaigne for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:43 PM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Apparently A. Gary Shilling can dish it out, but he can't take it.

But the truth will set you free, Gary. Here is an excerpt from "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," a 2002 paper by economist Owen Lamont, published in the prestigious Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. Click here to download it from Lamont's website at the Yale School of Management. This is my source for what I said about Shilling. Beginning on page 270 we find:

One practice is the “broken clock” strategy, which consists of always forecasting the same event. An example in the sample is A. Gary Shilling, a well-known recession-caller. Throughout the 1980s, Shilling continually predicted recession. In 15 out of 18Wall Street Journal surveys in which he participated 1981–1992 (data which are not used elsewhere in this paper), his year-ahead long-bond yield projection was the lowest among all forecasters. Fig. 1 shows GNP growth forecasts published in Business Week (various issues). As can be seen in the figure, 8 out of 10 times his forecast is below consensus, and he is often the extreme pessimistic outlier (when he is optimistic in his forecast for 1972, he is also the extreme optimistic outlier). Keane and Runkle cite Zarnowitz’s (1969) finding that in a survey including non-professional forecasters, “a number of the occasional forecasters submitted extreme and rather unreasonable predictions” as an example of “inaccuracies due to lack of proper economic incentives” of the forecaster. Yet it is hard to describe Shilling’s forecasts as anything, but “extreme and rather unreasonable”.

Shilling also provides direct anecdotal evidence on the forecasters’ manipulation of perceived ability by feeding his clients selected observations into the R function. The following abstract is taken from the 1987 Wall Street Journal index:

A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consultant and investment strategist, recently mailed clients material that included a copy of a Wall Street Journal article with a paragraph showing that Mr. Shilling had made the best forecast of 30 years treasury bonds in a survey published about a year ago; but he covered up a paragraph noting that Mr. Shilling was tied for last place with his bond forecast of 6 months ago (1/26-23; 3).
Note that Shilling is not an outcast among forecasters: he is frequently quoted in the financial press, and has run his own firm for more than 10 years, a firm which in 1992 employed 18 people and had US$ 2 million in annual sales.
Update [8/27/2008] Here's a survey that ranks market "gurus."I rank 13th from the top. Shilling ranks 5th from the bottom.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:15 PM | link  

HMMMM   An anoymous reader wants to know:
John Edwards has been barred from making a speech at the Democratic Convention because he had an adulterous affair and lied about it.

In his place, Bill Clinton will be speaking.

What am I missing?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:52 PM | link  

YOU DON'T HAVE TO WATCH THE DAMN DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION   Just rent a Blu-Ray disc, fire up the 52" hi-def flat-panel, and enjoy these classic scenes from political movies:

"All the King's Men," 1949

Best line: "Look, Willie, you yell at them too much. Just tell them you're going to soak the rich guys." - Advice to the governor-to-be on how to give a political speech
"The Best Man," 1964
Best line: "Someday we're going to have a Negro president. After that we're going to do something for that other minority and elect a woman." - Former Democratic president to the convention
"Blaze," 1989
Best line: Earl: "Would you still love me as much if I wasn't the fine governor of the great state of Louisiana?" Blaze: "Would you still love me if I had little tits and worked in a fish house?"
"Bob Roberts," 1992
Best line: "What's behind Bob Roberts? I don't see anyone at home. I will say once or twice in our debate I detected the odor of sulfur in the air." - Roberts' opponent on his flaws
"Bulworth," 1998
Best line: "All we need is a voluntary, free-spirited, open-ended program of procreative racial deconstruction. Everybody just gotta keep f- everybody till they're all the same color." - Bulworth on the campaign trail
"The Candidate," 1972
Best line: "What do we do now?" - McKay, after winning the election
"The Last Hurrah," 1958
Best line: "The trick is to know what the people want and then know what they will settle for." - Skeffington
"Mr. Smith Goes to Washington," 1939
Best line: "You think I'm licked. You all think I'm licked. Well, I'm not licked. I'm going to stay right here and fight for this lost cause, even if the room gets filled with lies like these and the Taylors and all their armies come marching into this place." - Smith at a low point in the filibuster
"Primary Colors," 1998
Best line: "I'm going to tell you something really outrageous. I'm going to tell you the truth." - Gov. Stanton at a rally.
"Speechless," 1994
Best line: "Some speechwriters have the tendency to become what is known as 'paranoid.' Just because someone seems interested in her doesn't mean they are after her 'secrets.' " - Kevin lecturing Julia
Thanks to Dave Duval for the link.

Update... Richard Ridgeway has the best of all.

"The Ghost Breakers" 1940

Best line: Geoff Montgomery (played by Richard Carlson) explains zombies. "...It's worse than horrible because a zombie has no will of his own. You see them sometimes walking around blindly with dead eyes, following orders, not knowing what they do, not caring." Larry Lawrence (played by Bob Hope) responds: "You mean like Democrats?"

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:43 PM | link  

UNUSUAL MODESTY FROM A FINANCIAL REPORTER   An anonymous reader reports:
I found this in the Washington Post regarding Fannie Mae and thought you'd enjoy it. I'm a financial journalist, so I can understand how a copy editor who regularly edits say political copy or other stories might not understand mortgage matters. But this was a hoot, nonetheless:
Freddie Mac, for instance, no longer finances no-money-down mortgages, nor does it continue to buy or guarantee mortgages given to people who have failed to document their finances. Fannie Mae has withdrawn from the market for all-day loans, which are considered risky because they require less documentation than traditional prime loans.
Of course they meant "Alt-A" loans, not "all-day" loans.

(If you post this, please don't credit me. I'd hate to point this out, then find a similar egregious error in my own reporting!)


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:38 PM | link  

TAXES AREN'T THE ONLY ECONOMIC ISSUE AT STAKE IN THIS ELECTION   Oustanding op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Bernie Marcus, the founder of Home Depot. Here's a guy who knows a little something about what it takes to start and operate a labor-intensive business. And he's terrified of the so-called "Employee Free Choice Act" that would eliminate secret balloting from union elections -- a law that Barack Obama heartily endorses.
...America "would become France" if a certain bill now in Congress -- which would virtually guarantee that every company becomes unionized -- ever became law. ...this bill would in most cases take away an employee's right to a secret ballot in a union election and give unions the option to have federal arbitrators set the wages, benefits, hours and all other terms and conditions of employment.

...You better fight to stop this undemocratic bill. I'm not the only one who thinks the proposed law violates long-established principles of democracy. ...George McGovern, a former Democratic senator and a champion of organized labor, called this bill what it really is -- "a disturbing and undemocratic overreach not in the interest of either management or labor."

To my astonishment, most CEOs in America are unaware of this planned hostile takeover of their human resources. I am retired, so this is not business for me. It's strictly personal. I care deeply about the competitiveness of American companies and our system of free enterprise.

Update... And just why, exactly, does Barack Obama support this egregious union incursion into free markets? Follow the money, in this link supplied by reader Jameson Campaigne.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:24 AM | link  


Monday, August 25, 2008

OBAMA BIN BIDEN   Can the Obama campaign fail to have noticed this little branding problem? Reader Tom Scott writes,
Last night my wife mused that the Democratic ticket sounded like Osama bin Laden. Took me a second, then I understood.

Obama Joe Biden

Obama and Biden

Obama bin Biden

Osama bin Biden

Osama bin Laden


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:58 AM | link  

AND WHY ARE THEIR MORAL SENTIMENTS ANY BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE'S?   The Wall Street Journal reports that Nobel-winning economists met in Germany, and decided that government ought to aid the poor people left behind by globalization. How nice. These people may be highly achieved in economics, but why does their wish for charitable works carry any particular weight? Why should it influence government policy? Why should their charity be carried out with my tax dollars?
LINDAU, Germany -- Globalization and technology have increased income inequality around the world, four Nobel Laureates in economics argued, and governments should intervene to try to help those at the bottom.

Meeting on a picturesque island in southern Germany, the Nobel laureates focused Saturday on the growing gap between rich and poor, which has become a big issue in elections around the world, including the U.S. presidential race. The discussion focused more on broad themes than detailed solutions. But the main thrust was clear: Free markets aren't always fair, and economists should help governments figure out how to make them fairer.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:20 AM | link  

ECON 101 FOR GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE   Huh? You mean people will buy more of something when you subsidize it? So the subsidy will cost more than you estimate? Golly! From the Wall Street Journal:
Americans who lack health insurance will spend about $30 billion out of pocket on medical care this year, but others -- mainly the government -- will end up covering another $56 billion in costs, according to a new study.

The tab to cover all the uninsured would be $208.6 billion -- $122.6 billion more than this year's projected total -- mainly because people with insurance tend to use more health-care services, the study found.

The report from researchers at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., and the Urban Institute think tank in Washington, D.C., is to be published Monday in the journal Health Affairs online.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:18 AM | link  


Sunday, August 24, 2008

SO MUCH FOR OBAMANOMICS   George Will in today's Washington Post:
Obama recently said that he would "require that 10 percent of our energy comes from renewable sources by the end of my first term -- more than double what we have now." Note the verb "require" and the adjective "renewable."

...For conservatives, seeing is believing; for liberals, believing is seeing. Obama seems to believe that if a particular outcome is desirable, one can see how to require it. But how does that work? Details to follow, sometime after noon Jan. 20, 2009.

...There never is a shortage of nonsensical political rhetoric, but really: Has there ever been solemn silliness comparable to today's politicians tarting up their agendas as things designed for, and necessary to, "saving the planet," and promising edicts to "require" entire industries to reorder themselves?

In 1996, Bob Dole, citing the Clinton campaign's scabrous fundraising, exclaimed: "Where's the outrage?" In this year's campaign, soggy with environmental messianism, deranged self-importance and delusional economics, the question is: Where is the derisive laughter?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:59 PM | link  


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