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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Saturday, August 30, 2008 PRETTY AMUSING Reader Mark Spahn points us to an epic poem:I will tell the story of Obamacles through my scribe Iowahawk.OK, so follow this link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:34 PM |
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EVERY ONCE IN A BLUE MOON... ...David Brooks earns his keep. From his most recent column: We got to know Barack and Michelle Obama, two tall, thin, rich, beautiful people who don’t perspire, but who nonetheless feel compassion for their squatter and smellier fellow citizens. We know that Barack could have gone to a prestigious law firm, like his big donors in the luxury boxes, but he chose to put his ego aside to become a professional politician, president of the United States and redeemer of the human race. We heard about his time as a community organizer, the three most fulfilling months of his life. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:57 PM |
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OPRAH, ARE YOU LISTENING? Here's my DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" with a really bad idea for our "book club." I have an arrangement to trade books with a good friend who describes himself as an unabashed liberal. I, myself, am an occasionally bashed conservative. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:08 PM |
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KUDLOW REPLAY It's been a wearying week on "Kudlow & Co." First it was Gary Shilling going all weepy. Then is was Quentin Hardy biting my ankles. Then yesterday it was Michael Pento -- who, before uncorking his green faucet of econobabble masquerading as analysis, just couldn't resist gratuitously dissing me. Who is this rude young fellow? According to his bio, his "more than 16 years of industry experience" includes having "worked on the floor of the N.Y.S.E." Interesting. I worked on the NYSE myself, as a trader, when the Big Board introduced options trading for the first time. In fact, I traded the very first option contract ever traded on the NYSE floor. Funny, I didn't see Pento there. Different times, no doubt, as my own "industry" experince stretches back longer. But then again, one doesn't remember every clerk.
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Friday, August 29, 2008 SARAH PALIN MUST REALLY BE A HIT WITH DIE-HARD CONSERVATIVES This proves it. My Goldwaterite friend Dave Duval writes in to say,And let me tell you something -- for the first time in my adult lifetime during this campaign, I am really proud of my presumptive nominee. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:32 PM |
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THE FED THINKS OF EVERYTHING Monetary policy designed esecially for Paul Krugman and Robert Reich. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:16 PM |
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AND THESE GUYS ALL PRETEND TO BE POPULISTS Great story in today's Journal about frenzied trading in high-end perks at the Denver DNC, with admission tickets to the convention floor used as a kind of currency. Let's forget the BS about Obama raising all his money $10 at a time on the Internet. This is how it's always been done, and this is how it's still being done. Even as Hillary Clinton publicly urged her backers this week to line up behind Barack Obama, some of her onetime fund-raisers have been working behind the scenes to hit up donors for the new cause. One of their tools: hard-to-get credentials for big events. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:47 AM |
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KUDLOW REPLAY Ankle-bitten by Quentin Hardy. You could see him shifting and bouncing and looking around nervously during the whole segment, waiting for his moment to take his little nip at me -- which he finally gets up the courage to do at the very end, when he thinks I won't have a chance to respond. Obviously he's been planning this little move for the last month, ever since our last TV encounter, just waiting to be on with me again. So should I get a rabies shot? Nah. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:25 AM |
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Thursday, August 28, 2008 THIS IS AN HISTORIC BLOG POST! I'm making this post on the 45th anniversary -- to the day! -- of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech. That's all. I didn't really have anything to say.Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:23 PM |
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FOLLOW-UP FROM FROM TONIGHT'S "KUDLOW" In the unlikely event that anyone gives a damn about what Quentin Hardy was talking about on "Kudlow & Co." tonight about how I "denigrated" him "dishonestly" in a blog posting after our last appearance together, here it is. Check it out and judge for yourself. This was the show in which Hardy thought it was witty to accuse me of glue-sniffing. Now that's denigration. And it's dishonest, too. I don't sniff glue, I mainline it. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:23 PM |
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008 IF OBAMA IS A SYMBOL OF EVERYTHING THAT'S RIGHT, THEN HOW CAN EVERYTHING BE SO WRONG? The media gushing about Barack Obama has become nearly unbearable. Here is Michael Gerson in the Washington Post this morning.Obama...is part of a great moral story involving aspiration, faith and the struggle for racial equality. It is the story of lives and wages stolen by fraud and violence, of families broken at the auction block, of millions who died with their hopes unfulfilled, of millions who never abandoned hope. The story of self-evident truths greater than the flawed men who put them to paper, and of courageous men and women who claimed those promises in fact and in law.My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" comments, I won't mock his swooning for Barack; his emotions are up to him. His grasp of facts, though, is a problem. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:57 PM |
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WE TOLD YOU THERE WOULD BE A BRANDING PROBLEM Did we call it, or what? Now this, from the Dallas Morning News blog: Charlie Wilson -- he of "Charlie Wilson's War" fame -- rallied a midday gathering of Texans Monday with a call to end the war in Iraq. The former Texas congressman said the U.S. should have kept its focus on Afghanistan and never gone into Iraq.Thanks to E. M. Schulze for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:13 AM |
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Tuesday, August 26, 2008 OBAMA BIN BIDEN: THE CULTURE OF CORRUPTION The Obama campaign faults John McCain for having seven houses. But the one house Obama's got he obtained crookedly, through his connections with corrupt Chicago businessman Tony Rezko. Now it turns out that Joe Biden is mixed up with Rezko, too. Didn't they vet this guy? From the Chicago Sun Times:Biden has described himself as a 30-year friend of a key figure in the Rezko trial who's pleaded guilty to a federal extortion charge in Chicago and is awaiting sentencing.Thanks to Jameson Campaigne for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:43 PM |
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KUDLOW REPLAY Apparently A. Gary Shilling can dish it out, but he can't take it. But the truth will set you free, Gary. Here is an excerpt from "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," a 2002 paper by economist Owen Lamont, published in the prestigious Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. Click here to download it from Lamont's website at the Yale School of Management. This is my source for what I said about Shilling. Beginning on page 270 we find: One practice is the “broken clock” strategy, which consists of always forecasting the same event. An example in the sample is A. Gary Shilling, a well-known recession-caller. Throughout the 1980s, Shilling continually predicted recession. In 15 out of 18Wall Street Journal surveys in which he participated 1981–1992 (data which are not used elsewhere in this paper), his year-ahead long-bond yield projection was the lowest among all forecasters. Fig. 1 shows GNP growth forecasts published in Business Week (various issues). As can be seen in the figure, 8 out of 10 times his forecast is below consensus, and he is often the extreme pessimistic outlier (when he is optimistic in his forecast for 1972, he is also the extreme optimistic outlier). Keane and Runkle cite Zarnowitz’s (1969) finding that in a survey including non-professional forecasters, “a number of the occasional forecasters submitted extreme and rather unreasonable predictions” as an example of “inaccuracies due to lack of proper economic incentives” of the forecaster. Yet it is hard to describe Shilling’s forecasts as anything, but “extreme and rather unreasonable”.Update [8/27/2008] Here's a survey that ranks market "gurus."I rank 13th from the top. Shilling ranks 5th from the bottom. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:15 PM |
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HMMMM An anoymous reader wants to know: John Edwards has been barred from making a speech at the Democratic Convention because he had an adulterous affair and lied about it. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:52 PM |
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YOU DON'T HAVE TO WATCH THE DAMN DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION Just rent a Blu-Ray disc, fire up the 52" hi-def flat-panel, and enjoy these classic scenes from political movies: "All the King's Men," 1949 Best line: "Look, Willie, you yell at them too much. Just tell them you're going to soak the rich guys." - Advice to the governor-to-be on how to give a political speech"The Best Man," 1964 Best line: "Someday we're going to have a Negro president. After that we're going to do something for that other minority and elect a woman." - Former Democratic president to the convention"Blaze," 1989 Best line: Earl: "Would you still love me as much if I wasn't the fine governor of the great state of Louisiana?" Blaze: "Would you still love me if I had little tits and worked in a fish house?""Bob Roberts," 1992 Best line: "What's behind Bob Roberts? I don't see anyone at home. I will say once or twice in our debate I detected the odor of sulfur in the air." - Roberts' opponent on his flaws"Bulworth," 1998 Best line: "All we need is a voluntary, free-spirited, open-ended program of procreative racial deconstruction. Everybody just gotta keep f- everybody till they're all the same color." - Bulworth on the campaign trail"The Candidate," 1972 Best line: "What do we do now?" - McKay, after winning the election"The Last Hurrah," 1958 Best line: "The trick is to know what the people want and then know what they will settle for." - Skeffington"Mr. Smith Goes to Washington," 1939 Best line: "You think I'm licked. You all think I'm licked. Well, I'm not licked. I'm going to stay right here and fight for this lost cause, even if the room gets filled with lies like these and the Taylors and all their armies come marching into this place." - Smith at a low point in the filibuster"Primary Colors," 1998 Best line: "I'm going to tell you something really outrageous. I'm going to tell you the truth." - Gov. Stanton at a rally."Speechless," 1994 Best line: "Some speechwriters have the tendency to become what is known as 'paranoid.' Just because someone seems interested in her doesn't mean they are after her 'secrets.' " - Kevin lecturing JuliaThanks to Dave Duval for the link. Update... Richard Ridgeway has the best of all. "The Ghost Breakers" 1940 Best line: Geoff Montgomery (played by Richard Carlson) explains zombies. "...It's worse than horrible because a zombie has no will of his own. You see them sometimes walking around blindly with dead eyes, following orders, not knowing what they do, not caring." Larry Lawrence (played by Bob Hope) responds: "You mean like Democrats?" Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:43 PM |
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UNUSUAL MODESTY FROM A FINANCIAL REPORTER An anonymous reader reports: I found this in the Washington Post regarding Fannie Mae and thought you'd enjoy it. I'm a financial journalist, so I can understand how a copy editor who regularly edits say political copy or other stories might not understand mortgage matters. But this was a hoot, nonetheless:Freddie Mac, for instance, no longer finances no-money-down mortgages, nor does it continue to buy or guarantee mortgages given to people who have failed to document their finances. Fannie Mae has withdrawn from the market for all-day loans, which are considered risky because they require less documentation than traditional prime loans.Of course they meant "Alt-A" loans, not "all-day" loans. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:38 PM |
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TAXES AREN'T THE ONLY ECONOMIC ISSUE AT STAKE IN THIS ELECTION Oustanding op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Bernie Marcus, the founder of Home Depot. Here's a guy who knows a little something about what it takes to start and operate a labor-intensive business. And he's terrified of the so-called "Employee Free Choice Act" that would eliminate secret balloting from union elections -- a law that Barack Obama heartily endorses. ...America "would become France" if a certain bill now in Congress -- which would virtually guarantee that every company becomes unionized -- ever became law. ...this bill would in most cases take away an employee's right to a secret ballot in a union election and give unions the option to have federal arbitrators set the wages, benefits, hours and all other terms and conditions of employment.Update... And just why, exactly, does Barack Obama support this egregious union incursion into free markets? Follow the money, in this link supplied by reader Jameson Campaigne. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:24 AM |
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Monday, August 25, 2008 OBAMA BIN BIDEN Can the Obama campaign fail to have noticed this little branding problem? Reader Tom Scott writes,Last night my wife mused that the Democratic ticket sounded like Osama bin Laden. Took me a second, then I understood. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:58 AM |
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AND WHY ARE THEIR MORAL SENTIMENTS ANY BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE'S? The Wall Street Journal reports that Nobel-winning economists met in Germany, and decided that government ought to aid the poor people left behind by globalization. How nice. These people may be highly achieved in economics, but why does their wish for charitable works carry any particular weight? Why should it influence government policy? Why should their charity be carried out with my tax dollars? LINDAU, Germany -- Globalization and technology have increased income inequality around the world, four Nobel Laureates in economics argued, and governments should intervene to try to help those at the bottom. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:20 AM |
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ECON 101 FOR GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE Huh? You mean people will buy more of something when you subsidize it? So the subsidy will cost more than you estimate? Golly! From the Wall Street Journal: Americans who lack health insurance will spend about $30 billion out of pocket on medical care this year, but others -- mainly the government -- will end up covering another $56 billion in costs, according to a new study. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:18 AM |
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Sunday, August 24, 2008 SO MUCH FOR OBAMANOMICS George Will in today's Washington Post:Obama recently said that he would "require that 10 percent of our energy comes from renewable sources by the end of my first term -- more than double what we have now." Note the verb "require" and the adjective "renewable." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:59 PM |
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