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Saturday, August 09, 2008

THE LEFT TAKES THE HIGH ROAD   Amazing that the New York Times reported this, but it did:
Nearly 10,000 of the biggest donors to Republican candidates and causes across the country will probably receive a foreboding “warning” letter in the mail next week.

The letter is an opening shot across the bow from an unusual new outside political group on the left that is poised to engage in hardball tactics to prevent similar groups on the right from getting off the ground this fall.

Led by Tom Matzzie, a liberal political operative who has been involved with some prominent left-wing efforts in recent years, the newly formed nonprofit group, Accountable America, is planning to confront donors to conservative groups, hoping to create a chilling effect that will dry up contributions.

“We want to stop the Swift Boating before it gets off the ground,” said Mr. Matzzie, who described his effort as “going for the jugular.”

The warning letter is intended as a first step, alerting donors who might be considering giving to right-wing groups to a variety of potential dangers, including legal trouble, public exposure and watchdog groups digging through their lives.

Thanks to Michael Angelides for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:09 PM | link  

A REPORT FROM THE ECONOMIC GRASSROOTS   Our Texas correspondent Richard Ridgeway reports in:
I've got a pic (below) that I took in Loving, Tx that had me scratching my head. Unusual museum? Pondering the past? Wax? Metal? What the hell is it!?

A quick story you might find interesting. I've added another business adventure as I attained my state of Texas Automobile dealers license. Yep, I can now consider myself moving up to used car salesman. At the Dallas auction I frequent (weekly), there is about 3,000 vehicles auctioned off with an average time of about 30 seconds per vehicle. I buy large trucks and SUV's and average a nice profit retailing to people that will continue to purchase those units. You know the type- construction workers, large families, people that tow and haul things, safety conscious people, folks that must go places where cars can't, people that liberals haven't got a clue even exists. And those vehicles are now a bargain on both ends (wholesale and retail).

I'm doing my part to expand the economy and the auction is an adrenalin rush (or could be the noxious vapors from the lines of vehicles idling in the buyers lanes). Either way it's fun and I have increased my carbon footprint at least 10 fold and plan to increase it more...Vaarooomm!!


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:12 PM | link  


Friday, August 08, 2008

BRILLIANT POLITICAL ANALYSIS BY KRUGMAN   Paul Krugman writes this morning about the failure of Republicans and the Democrats to work together for the common good.
...remember this the next time someone calls for an end to partisanship, for working together to solve the country’s problems. It’s not going to happen — not as long as one of America’s two great parties believes that when it comes to politics, stupidity is the best policy.
Reader E. M. Schultze comments,
Which suggests the Krugman approach to marital bliss:

Husband: “You know, Dear, there seem to be some problems in our marriage. Can’t we cooperate like we used to?”

Wife: “I would very much like to. What do you suggest?”

Husband: “Never mind. It’s not going to work because you’re stupid.”

Update [8/9/2008]... If Republicans are "stupid" for wanting to drill for more oil to lower the gasoline price, as Krugman alleges in this column, the what do we call Democrats? "Moronic"? Reader Don Mackison writes,
I was just fiddling with my legal pad and Zebra pen (ain't technology great) and in roughly 15 seconds came up with the following figures:

Barry Obama, from Illinois, wants 1,000,000 new electric cars on the road (out of 150 million vehicles rolling today). OK, let's do the math:

1,000,000 cars with 160 hp (1.6*35 KW=50 KW) engines

50,000 mega watts

= 60 new nuclear reactors to provide the power.

If we replace all 150 million cars on the road today, that then take 150*60 = 900 new nuclear reactors to provide the electricity (today there are 104 US reactors).

Of course, these figures are approximate, but what do I know.

Update 2 [8/9/2008]... Reader Jason Legel points out a good analysis of this Krugman column on Wizbang.

Update 3 [8/10/2008]... Reader Carl Meijer responds to Mackison:

Doesn't this analysis assume that these new vehicles are going to be driven 24 hours a day? In which case, the number of nuclear reactors is out by an order of magnitude.
Update 4 [8/10/2008]... Mackison responds:
My fifteen second analysis assumed constant operation of the cars. Do another five seconds of thought: make the assumption of 5% duty cycle (1.2 hours/day), and we're down to 3 new nuclear reactors for the 1,000,000 new electric cars, and 450 new reactors for the whole fleet.

From another source, there has been consideration of siting naval reactors on military bases to provide uninteruped power.

And then there's the case of California- shutting down the 900 MWatt reactor near Sacremento and replacig it with 9 MWatt of solar power. What's happening with the Diablo Canyon power plant?

Update 4 [8/10/2008]... Reader Dave Ivers responds, as well:
Well, I have a question for Mr. Meijer. Are the cars going to be driven enough to need to be plugged in every day (hopefully in the late evening during off-peak hours)? If so, how much electricity does it take? Then we can multiply that by the number of such cars to find the load factor. I notice that Mr. Meijer, unlike Mr. Makison, includes no numbers to support his assertions.

Perhaps Mr. Obama intends to just wave his Magic Policy Wand (TM) and everything will be just ducky. Maybe inflating our tires will displace enough usage to power the cars, but I'd rather see some numbers. Pony up, Meijer.

Take a look at California's power need and see what adding a few tens of thousands of plug-in cars might do there.

I do have a proposal, though. Those who support Obama's policy can sign up, and anytime there's a brown out possibility they can have their power shut off until the problem passes. I expect to see Carl Meijer's name heading the list, since he's so certain we won't need more power sources.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:54 AM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here are a couple of versions yesterday's appearance -- one on CNBC.com, and the other on MSN. I'm never sure how these sites organize video content, so this may be the same thing twice, and perhaps neither is complete.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:02 AM | link  


Thursday, August 07, 2008

OK, IF YOU INSIST   Normally I'm being ordered to conserve! Seen at Disneyland.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:54 PM | link  

I COULDN'T FIND FERDINAND THE BULL...   ...so I had to settle for getting chummy with this bear at Disneyland today.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:51 AM | link  

THANK GOD THERE'S A GLOBAL RECESSION GOING ON   Otherwise Disneyland would be really crowded! This photo was taken this morning at the front gate an hour before the park opens to the public -- this is just the "magic morning" people staying at the park's various hotels, who get admission one hour early. They've lined up like this at 7:00 am.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:30 AM | link  

ARE WE DEPRESSED YET?   Our friend Jim Glass has been headline hunting...
A fast check at Google News a few minutes ago quickly found news reports of how we now are in the ....
"worst economic crisis since the Great Depression" "worst financial crisis since the Depression"

"worst housing downturn since the Depression"

"worst venture and investment environment since the Depression,"

"worst credit crunch since the Depression"

"worst year for the newspaper business since the Depression" (if the New York Times says so itself)

and ... wait for it ... "the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the biggest housing bust since the Great Depression, the coming biggest systemic banking crisis in the last 50 years, the worst U.S. recession since the stagflations of the 1970s, the biggest liquidity and credit crunch in decades...."

....among many others.

Meanwhile...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2008, less than many analysts had been predicting a week ago, but substantially better than the 6-month-ahead predictions for that number that we were hearing back in January.

Today's report contained some good news. The main reason that the final GDP number was weaker than predicted was the big drawdown in inventories. Without that negative contribution from inventories, real final sales grew at a robust 3.8% annual rate... [Econbrowser]


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:24 AM | link  

WE MAKE THE LIST   Thanks to Scott Martin and Conservatism Today, who has put me on his list of "Top Conservative Bloggers."
Donald Luskin runs this site, one of my all-time favorite blog names. (When is that book coming out, Don?) You may know Luskin from his frequent guest appearances on the CNBC show Kudlow & Company. Luskin posts less-frequently than many of my favorite bloggers, but is consistently dead-on in his analysis and the stories he links to. He seems used to being the smartest person in the room at any given time (giving off a vibe of friendly, good-humored arrogance) and has fun ripping liberal ideology. He also posts clips from his TV appearances, which inevitably feature him tearing apart some hapless liberal on the economic and political issues of the day.

Many fans of conservative blogging will be surprised by this choice, but I have been working on increasing my knowledge of economics as it pertains to conservative politics, and he's kept me informed and entertained. He will do the same for you.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:18 AM | link  


Tuesday, August 05, 2008

DAMN! AND WITH AN ELECTION COMING UP, TOO!   This is what passes for optimism at the New York Times:
Even if the economy continues to deteriorate, economists generally agree that the United States is not heading for another Great Depression.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:58 PM | link  

JUST OBEY THESE SIMPLE INSTRUCTIONS...   ...and nobody gets hurt. My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" does a little photo-blogging from Cape May, New Jersey.
Thank God Government tells us these things in pictures...but what does this even mean?
Let's see -- "Women prohibited from stomping on the arches of men's feet when wearing high-heeled shoes, but otherwise okay to stomp?" And how about that other one? "Don't play Elvis Costello songs"?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:00 AM | link  

HIGH GASOLINE PRICES MUST HAVE DRIVEN THEM MAD WITH POWER   What else explains this bizarre sign, sighted in Menlo Park, CA? What is the meaning of the verb to smog -- to convert a Prius into a standard polluter? Why is the word now in quotation marks -- to suggest they don't really mean it, that they can't really do it now, just sort of now? And whatever it means to smog a car, can they really do it to all cars? How many hundreds of millions of cars are there in the world? When could they get to all of them? "Now"?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:59 AM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video of yesterday's appearance. Another run-in with mere journalist Quentin Hardy, who for lack of practitioner insight parrots Obama talking points on energy and markets. I challenged him to provide a source for his claim that new drilling in the outer continental shelf would yield only 18 billion barrels of oil -- I even gave him my email address on-air, but (no surprise) has hasn't risen to the challenge by contacting me. And that's because he's wrong. He claimed the source was the Department of Energy. Sure, you can find that number on the DOE website, but that doens't make DOE the source. DOE is merely repeating a statistic produced by the Mineral Management Service of the Department of the Interior. But that's only one of many estimates by the MMS, and the most conservative -- based on information that is years out of date, because the same regulations that prevent offshore drilling prevent offshore exploration to find out how much oil is really there. The MMS -- the same agency that Hardy himself unknowingly quotes -- says,
The offshore areas of the United States are estimated to contain significant quantities of resources in yet-to-be-discovered fields. MMS estimates of oil and gas resources in undiscovered fields on the OCS (2006, mean estimates) total 86 billion barrels of oil and 420 trillion cubic feet of gas. These volumes represent about 60 percent of the oil and 40 percent of the natural gas resources estimated to be contained in remaining undiscovered fields in the United States.
Even Hardy's 18 billion barrels is a lot of oil, equal to something like three years of US consumption at present levels -- though Hardy tries to trivialize it by saying it's only seven months of world consumption. But regardless of the denominator, that's not the right way to think about it. In a recent newsletter frequent Kudlow guest Dennis Gartman explained the correct way to see it [link unavailable] -- that the new oil is added at the margin to existing supply, and thus extends US (or for that matter world) consumption growth for many, many decades.

Update [8//2008]... Reader Mark Spahn sends along a good link to further analysis of the political use of the MMS statistics.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:51 AM | link  


Monday, August 04, 2008

SIGNS OF THE TIMES   Back in Silicon Valley, this was observed in an Asian supermarket. Don't you think it's a little late for that?

And here the cost benefit trade-off is illuminated for prospective vending machine scamsters:


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:50 PM | link  

GOOD TASTE IS TIMELESS   Seen in a newly gentrified neighborhood of Chicago. So what does the groom wear -- a black leather cutaway?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:49 PM | link  

TAXI MYSTERIES   We're back home after our month in Chicago. While there, I took cabs every day, and had a chance to mull the mysteries of taxi culture. Of the, say, fifty cabs I took that month, one and only one -- and by chance I got this one twice on two successive days -- has a big brother camera set up to take pictures of all riders. What's the purpose? To discourage theives? Adultery? Shy people?

And how about this cosmic question: just who are all the taxi drivers constantly jabbering with on their Bluetooth cellphone headsets? For each driver, is there someone else, somewhere in the world, sitting around to talk to that driver? Is each driver, thus, a member of a team of two -- one to drive, one to talk to him? Or are they talking to each other? And what the hell do they talk about all day, every day? I know the answer to that one -- they are talking about me.

Update [8/5/2008]... Reader Don Edwards writes,

Regarding the one taxi in Chicago with a camera, I think you are probably mistaken: that you only spotted one prominent notice, but every taxi you rode in had a camera and perhaps a less prominent notice of its existence.

In Seattle, where I am currently doing some computer programming related to taxi regulations, each legal taxi must have a properly functioning digital camera designed for the purpose. This camera takes a picture every time the back door opens or closes, on any of several other events, and every few minutes. A hurried search is unlikely to even find the recording unit, which is not easily damaged or removed.

Taxi cameras have been used to resolve a number of crimes against taxi drivers, and occasionally a crime by a taxi driver. As a result they've been an effective deterrent to further crimes.

However, normally nobody has access to the pictures, and they are never downloaded; they stay in the camera's storage until past expiration date and the space is needed for new pictures. And there are far too many pictures taken in each cab for the police to call in hundreds of taxis and copy their pictures for a fishing expedition. Nobody looks unless there is an actual crime report, with a recent date and approximate time and some significant narrowing of which taxi was involved.

I believe you'll find much the same situation in Chicago and many other large cities.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:43 PM | link  

IT DOESN'T GET ANY PLAINER THAN THIS   Great IBD editorial:
Before friendly audiences, Barack Obama speaks passionately about something called "economic justice." ...During his NAACP speech earlier this month, Sen. Obama repeated the term at least four times. "I've been working my entire adult life to help build an America where economic justice is being served," he said at the group's 99th annual convention in Cincinnati.

And as president, "we'll ensure that economic justice is served," he asserted. "That's what this election is about." Obama never spelled out the meaning of the term, but he didn't have to. His audience knew what he meant, judging from its thumping approval.

It's the rest of the public that remains in the dark... "Economic justice" simply means punishing the successful and redistributing their wealth by government fiat. It's a euphemism for socialism.

Thanks to David Bahnsen for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:03 PM | link  

HAS CHARLIE GASPARINO BEEN BORN AGAIN?   We've had our issues with the beefy CNBC "on-air editor." But readers are beginning to tell me that he's started to do some great work. This morning, from Kirn Dhaliwal:
Did you happen to catch the abrasive Charlie Gasparino take on the unctuous Jared Bernstein on CNBC today? It's about time a someone set the record straight on the Clinton tax and economic performance record: the first term was marked by no to slow growth, whereas with the assistance of a Republican congress and the lowering of capital gains tax the second term saw robust economic growth - and it was Jared who got the history lesson. It's about time, I'm tired of all the air time "Krugman Jr." has been getting.
Update... Art Patten sends along this link to a Gasparino op-ed that continues to show a side of Charlie I'd never appreciated:
...it's hard to see how a President Obama would be good for Wall Street. He wants to raise the capital-gains tax to a whopping 28 percent from the current 15 percent. That'd be great for the tax-shelter business, but stocks would tank.

And firmly in his cross hairs are couples earning $250,000 or more - the "richest Americans," as Obama likes to call them, whom he'd tax at the same rate as Warren Buffett. Only when Obamamania dulls their senses can usually smart people rationalize taxing two people who each earn $125,000 a year like they're billionaires.

I'm sure there's some noblesse oblige involved in all these CEOs' backing one of our most liberal pols for the White House. But I suspect the real reason the Wall Street elites like Obama so much is that it really doesn't cost them anything: They've already made their fortunes.

At bottom, Obama is about taxing wealth creation - not the piles of cash these guys have already accumulated.

I pointed a lot of this out to Corzine on CNBC. His answer: Clinton's tax hikes - mainly on the top income bracket - plugged the budget deficit, leading to lower interest rates and a booming economy, not to mention a resurgent stock market after the '87 crash.

What Corzine failed to mention was that the first three Clinton years weren't go-go: A stagnant economy was a big cause of the 1994 Republican Revolution. With the GOP controlling Congress, Hillary's health-care plan died - and divided government did what it does best, preventing overreach and huge spending bills. The result was a stock-market boom (especially after the '97 capital-gains-tax cuts) and five years of strong growth.

Oh, yeah - Clinton worked hard for free trade, twisting arms in Congress to pass the North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama says that treaty needs renegotiating.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:47 PM | link