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Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Saturday, June 28, 2008

YAHOO! AND AT&T LEND THEIR NAMES TO FRAUD   See these two satellite dishes laying in a heap on my driveway?

The white diamond-shaped one is my friend of 17 years -- not an a actual satellite dish, but rather a microwave transceiver. It was installed on the hill above my home in 2001 with a line-of-sight to a Sprint tower many miles away across the San Francisco Bay. Back in 2001 it was the only way to get anything like broadband internet in the rustic canyon in which I live, and it was a pretty good deal. Got about 0.8 mps out of it, download and upload -- and it was an honest 0.8, very consistent. Back when it was installed that was about as good as broadband got, anyway -- though now that's considered slow, and really isn't up to the video content that now dominates the web. Sprint has just had to discontinue the service after all these years, because of a regulatory reallocation of the spectrum that that it uses. So I've had to shop for alternatives.

You can't get DSL up here in the hills. And though Comcast had cabled my canyon a year or so back, when I investigated last year they wanted many thousands of dollars to bring the cable to my house, which is quite a distance off the road. So I asked my telephony provider AT&T what they recommended, and they referred me to a product that they co-brand with Yahoo!, called WildBlue.

So I called WildBlue and signed up. That was the only good part of the experience -- and it turns out to have been what amounts to a fraud. The big gray dish in the picture is the WildBlue dish, after I ripped it off my roof and threw it there on my driveway, on the way to an further dumping in a public dumspster somewhere.

I was promised a free installation. I was promised assistance in getting the WildBlue signal to work with my home network. I was promised download speed of 1.5 mps, and upload speed of 0.25 mps (that is, if I paid a premium price for their highest echelon of service). Every bit of that was a lie.

When the installer came, he announced that my installation was "special" and would require an additional payment of $240 -- a check to be made out to him, not to WildBlue. Once the dish was installed on my roof, the installer screwed the modem in, tested the signal on my laptop (it connected to the web successfully) and announced that he was done. I told him I had been promised that he would configure my home network to work with the new service -- he said he didn't really do that kind of thing, but that he knew how, and would do it as a favor to me. Two hours later, it turned out he didn't have the slightest idea how to do it, and in the process of proving that to me he rendered my home network completely inoperable, even with the Sprint signal. Ultimately I called a tech-savvy friend to come rescue me, and he managed to get it all set to right.

But then it turned out that the advertised speed was not in fact, what the dish was able to deliver. Downloads were typically clocking at about 1.1 mps (1.5 had been promised -- remember, I paid extra for that). Uploads never exceeded even 0.1 mps (I had been promised 0.25). At least on the download side you'd think that I ought to be somewhat satisfied -- after all, it was faster than Sprint had been. But experientially that wasn't true. I don't know why, but even though WildBlue scored better than Sprint on speed tests, the reality of using the two services was that WildBlue was horribly slower. It wasn't much better than dial-up, actually.

So I called tech support at WildBlue. They went through a test with me, got 1.1 mps down and 0.8 up -- and then told me that these speeds were within their "service specifications." I hung up, and immediately started finding an alternative.

I ended up with Comcast. With a year having past, they have changed their installation cost policies, and ended up doing a very complicated cabling from their pole to my house (including 300 feet of trenching, some of which under a road) all for free. The speed is fabulous, and the cost is the same that WildBlue charged.

So with Comcast all up and running, I called WildBlue yesterday to cancel. I was told that I would have to pay all charges so far ($411 for first month and the equipment, plus the $240 the installer pocketed), plus a $650 cancellation fee. I told them that the product was a disappointment in every way, that everything they had promised about it was a lie, and that I wanted a complete refund and no further charges. They told me that the speeds they promised me weren't promised, just indications. And they told me that I have signed a contract committing to these payments (in fact, I have not ever signed anything with them -- another lie).

So here's where it stands. I've notified Visa that my card is being used fraudulently. I'm going to rely on them to straighten this out. If they can't, there'll be a lot more blogging, and maybe a little suing.

Update [6/29/2008]... Reader Rick Hicks contributes,

Thought I could help on a few topics.

1) The installation technicians for all (as far as I know) satellite services are sub-contractors of sub-contractors of... etc., that the 'marketing company' does not know, train, or bear much responsibility for. It is likely that the charge he asked for was his own doing and not with the knowledge or consent of WildBlue.

2) Slowness - while the throughput testing showed equal or higher bandwidth, what they were not showing you in the latency. Satellite communications has much more latency than any other service - usually 1.4 - 1.5 seconds for a response to a transmission. This makes things actually work slower, even though the throughput is better.

In short - satellite is awful service for Internet connectivity.

As for the contract dispute I cannot presume to comment - they are likely being jerks. Just wanted to lend some background to the other issues.

Update 2 [6/29/2008]... Julian Murdoch advises,
Dude, you so should have called me.

Satellite is universally horrible - I had it when I first moved out here to the boonies for the precise same reason you did. In my case it was phone line up, satellite down, and while it was passable for long downloads, it was terrible for actual work because of the latency. Nothing to be done about that, it's a long way to orbit, and no magic secret sauce will ever fix that.

As for your rejection of the charges. I doubt you will ever get your 240 bucks back from the dude. I had a similar issue when I had mine installed, although in my case I called the sat company and they verified it. In your case I think he was just milking you. I doubt you'll fail when you reject the charge through visa though, because while the company may protest, eventually they'll either get tired or visa will pay them and just stick it in a loss line-item somewhere.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:30 PM | link  


Friday, June 27, 2008

KRUGMAN AGREES WITH ME   ...that "index speculators" aren't responsible for high oil prices. But that doesn't mean he wants to miss an opporunity to regulate markets! He says, "...growing demand from emerging economies, not speculation, is the real story behind rising prices of...oil..." But "Regulating futures markets more tightly isn’t a bad idea..."

Josh Hendrickson writes,

Paul Krugman has placed himself front and center in the debate as to whether or not oil prices are out of line with fundamentals (he believes the prices do reflect fundamentals). Isn't it therefore time to declare oil prices to be the latest bubble?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:19 AM | link  


Thursday, June 26, 2008

JOKE OF THE DAY  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:04 PM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video of Tuesday's appearance, in which I am forced to inject a note of seriousness into the discourse of A. Gary Shilling -- or is that The. Gary Shilling? I'm never sure. Note the Dr. Evil freezeframe, courtesy of YouTube.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:00 PM | link  


Wednesday, June 25, 2008

BEN BERNANKE USES A HELICOPTER   But here in Boston, the Fed has other means.

Spotted by Tom Demas.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:52 AM | link  

OBSERVED IN BOSTON   This would make a great premise for a children's mystery story.

This one speaks for itself.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:50 AM | link  


Tuesday, June 24, 2008

OBAMA'S SOCIAL SECURITY FINE PRINT   My op-ed in this morning's Wall Street Journal:
Last week, Barack Obama revealed his plan to shore up Social Security's shaky finances by raising the income level on which the payroll tax is applied. Currently, incomes above $102,000 are exempt, with that threshold rising every year indexed to wage inflation. Mr. Obama would keep that limit in place, but then assess payroll taxes on incomes above $250,000, which his campaign claims would apply to only the richest 3% of Americans.

Mr. Obama angered liberals last year when he admitted that there was a "Social Security crisis." But at least Mr. Obama's base should be appeased now that his solution to the "crisis" is to soak the rich. One liberal columnist actually noted with glee the fact that this would take us back to top tax rates not seen since the 1970s.

According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, Mr. Obama's new tax would siphon off 0.4% of gross domestic product annually. Combined with Mr. Obama's other tax-hike initiatives, "the total tax on labor would be close to 60 percent. In high-tax states like California and New York, the top rate would be even higher."

Would it help Social Security's financing problems? Mr. Obama has no idea. One of his senior economic advisers admitted to me that no one on the campaign has run any detailed models or performed any rigorous analysis. When one proposes an enormous tax increase, shouldn't there at least be a spreadsheet somewhere?

But the most alarming thing about Mr. Obama's proposal is that the $250,000 threshold, above which the payroll tax would be applied, refers to household income, not individual income. So it's quite deceptive when he claims that the $250,000 threshold will "ensure that lifting the payroll tax cap does not ensnare any middle class Americans."

Suppose your household consists of you and your spouse, each earning wages of $150,000 per year. Currently, you are each subject to the payroll tax up to $102,000 of wages, so together you are taxed on $204,000. Under the Obama plan, you'd be taxed again on another $50,000 of wages.

At the current payroll tax rate of 12.4% – 6.2% from wage-earners and 6.2% from their employers – your household would be looking at a tax hike of $6,200 per year. You probably didn't consider yourself rich before, and you certainly won't after paying that tax bill.

But that tax bill could be higher still. While the payroll tax has always been calculated just on wages from labor, Mr. Obama hasn't decided yet what forms of income will be included in the $250,000 threshold. It's an open question whether it might include interest on savings and capital gains income.

And neither has Mr. Obama said whether the rich – and, truth be told, the middle class – paying his new higher taxes will get correspondingly higher Social Security benefits when they retire. Throughout the history of the Social Security program, there has always been a connection between what you contribute in taxes and what you get back in benefits. If Mr. Obama uncaps the wages subject to tax, but doesn't uncap benefits, then he has severed the link between them. Social Security would stand revealed not as a work-related contributory retirement system, but simply as a tax-funded welfare and income-redistribution program.

And for all that, Mr. Obama's proposal won't help Social Security's long-run solvency problems.

According to the Social Security Administration actuaries, uncapping all wages subject to the payroll tax (not just those above $250,000) doesn't make much difference to the system's long-run solvency. If the increased payroll tax payments earn increased benefits, then only about one third of the system's 75-year shortfall is addressed. Even if there is no corresponding benefit increase, only about half the shortfall is addressed.

Remember, that inadequate result is what you get when all wages are subject to payroll taxes. Mr. Obama's plan – even with his household definition of $250,000 income – would collect far less than that. No wonder Mr. Obama's economic advisers aren't interested in doing any detailed analysis.

Worst of all, even the small contribution to Social Security solvency that Mr. Obama's plan might make is entirely illusory. In fact, the more taxes his plan collects, the worse Social Security's long-term situation gets. That's because all plans based on collecting taxes and saving them in the Social Security Trust Fund for future benefit payments rely on the U.S. government being able to redeem the Treasury bonds that trust fund holds.

There's only one place that the money to redeem those bonds can come from: taxes. So ironically, any tax dollars collected today will have to be collected all over again – plus interest. You like the idea of paying more taxes today for Mr. Obama's Social Security plan? Then just wait 20 years or so, because you'll get to pay more taxes all over again.

Update... Nick Kaster notes another big problem with Obama's plan:

...he [Obama] does not indicate whether the $250,000 threshold will be indexed for inflation. If the higher threshold is not indexed, then the donut hole will grow smaller and smaller in the years to come and eventually disappear. This is because the lower figure is subject to indexing and increases each year. In 2006, the FICA taxation threshold was $94,200; in 2007, it grew to $97,500, and this year it is $102,000. If the higher threshold remains static, more and more middle class taxpayers will be subject to FICA. A tax designed to punish the wealthy will end up ensnaring middle income earners.
Update 2... Bruce Kessler says,
You write,
"Throughout the history of the Social Security program, there has always been a connection between what you contribute in taxes and what you get back in benefits."
Your editorial is a model of clarity, and elucidation, but you should have included an adverb with "a connection."

The connection is a weak correlation. At present:

* Those with lower earnings contributions receive a proportionately higher benefit;

* Those with a lifetime of frugality and savings receive a lower benefit due to income taxes reaching to 85% of their benefit, and those collecting Social Security at age 62 or before age 65-67 (depending on Social Security's Normal Retirement Age") who have work earnings may pay over 100% of their Social Security benefit back to the government due to their benefit being reduced by a half of their earnings;

* Those with no contributions may receive a Social Security benefit if due to "poverty", even if due to immigration or a lazy life;

* And, on the other hand, seniors who have children under age 18 will receive 50% higher benefit for each of their children (up to 100% for two children), regardless of the beneficiaree's income or work history (which means there's no connection to earnings or contributions, only to fertility);

* Further, on the other hand, unlike almost all defined benefit and all defined contribution pensions, the widow may receive 100% of the deceased beneficiaree's Social Security benefit for the widow's lifetime.

In other words, Social Security is already a vast redistributive program. Add in that the returns for most recipients would be higher -- not to mention surer -- even if invested in insured government bonds.

Obama's "remedy" is just lots more of the same. It doesn't turn Social Security into a redistribution of earnings and assets. It just makes it even moreso, much moreso.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:38 PM | link  

LOVE TOM WOLFE, BUT...   ...I'm not sure these observations would seem especially interesting if anyone else were making them. From Ross Sorkin's DealBook:
Almost exactly a year ago, Tom Wolfe, the author of “The Bonfire of the Vanities,” was wandering the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Dressed in his trademark white suit, he darted around traders and whisked past trading booths, shaking hands and waving, just before the market was about to open.

...the reason, traders whispered, that Mr. Wolfe must be in attendance — was that the Blackstone Group, the big private equity firm, was minutes away from going public, the largest initial public offering in the United States since 2002. ...a CNBC reporter pulled Mr. Wolfe aside to ask him what he made of all the hubbub. Mr. Wolfe paused for a moment to contemplate his answer.

And then, with a wry smile, he delivered a prophetic declaration: “We may be witnessing the end of capitalism as we know it.” Here we are a year later, and while it may not be the end of capitalism, it looks as if Mr. Wolfe got it a lot closer than, say, the investors who plowed money into Blackstone...

As Mr. Wolfe nicely put it, “It sounds like even the firms that aren’t in trouble are in trouble.

"...It has always interested me that the word ‘credit’ comes from the word ‘credere,’ which means ‘to believe,’ ” Mr. Wolfe said. “It only works if people believe in it.” He’s right, of course: one reason the credit markets have tanked is that people don’t believe anymore.

Update... Gerald Hanner quotes Philip K. Dick: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:52 PM | link  


Monday, June 23, 2008

POLICY PIRACY   My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" writes,
The Department of Justice approved the XM-Sirius merger back in March, correctly observing that the merger did not impede completion in the relevant market and that approval required no conditions.

Speculation in Washington is that the FCC soon may approve the merger with a suite of conditions demanded by groups such as Public Knowledge. I’d say it’s prudent to wait and see because FCC approval comes down to an assumption that Republican Commissioner Robert McDowell, an independent thinker, goes along. The guessing is he will, largely because the satellite radio companies participated in negotiations over the conditions and are willing to accept them. Kevin Martin, apparently, is ready to relent his own obstinacy, without which the ambush against the merger would not have succeeded.

Remind me why the Federal Communications Commission is a good idea? We abolished the ICC; we still have railroads. All that the FCC has accomplished here is mischief.

Look at the ransom the left won:

...* set aside 4 percent of their spectrum capacity (what now amounts to 12 channels) for non-commercial educational programming;

*lease another 4 percent to groups like minorities and women who are underrepresented in broadcasting...

It’s a free country so we can’t complain that activist groups such as Public Knowledge agitate for the special interests of the left, but we ought to bitch and moan that they succeed at their game of policy piracy. Not many know that groups like this get funded by corporations who want to use them as a weapon, or, worse yet, as a form of protection money.

Why is the Bush FCC on the verge of carving up a healthy slice of someone else’s pie for the next generation of Air America? Yet another sad example of the Bush Adminiustration’s failure to operate under a consistent free market philosophy.

I have no interest in this, other than watching Washington acting, once again, like a zoning board in New York, and as a very bad precedent for future FCCs.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:48 PM | link  


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