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Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Friday, May 09, 2008

WHICH IS STRANGER?   That there is such thing as the "Hedge Fund Launch of the Year" award, or that this year's winner is a fund that specializes in porn? Thanks to Michael Angelides for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:27 AM | link  

LET'S TAX OUR WAY TO SOLVENCY   Great op-ed by Andrew Biggs, demolishing the Obama fantasy that Social Security could be made solvent by simply going back to the supposedly modest tax rates of the Clinton years.
This argument seems compelling, but it is misguided. In reality, repealing the tax cuts would raise taxes far above Clinton-era levels...

Tax revenues would skyrocket if the tax cuts expire, due to "bracket creep." Average incomes are higher today than in the 1990s, but income-tax brackets aren't adjusted for the growth of earnings. As a result, Americans will shift into higher tax brackets and pay a greater share of their incomes in taxes.

Going back to the tax rates of the 1990s doesn't mean that households will pay 1990s taxes. Because the tax brackets haven't risen along with incomes, average taxes would be significantly higher, and grow each year.

If the tax cuts expire, income-tax revenues by 2018 will rise to 10.8% of the total economy from 8.7% today – an increase of 24%. Compared to the average over the last 50 years, allowing the rates to rise would increase tax revenues by 32%.

Biggs doesn't mention another important flaw in Obama's case. It's that for the expiration of the lower Bush-era tax rates to fix Social Security, it would require that the program be funded from general revenues, not from the payroll tax as has always been the policy. You know what that means? It means that Obama, and any other liberal who advocates his view, is admitting that Social Security is not a self-contained, self-funded entity -- but just another federal welfare program.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:53 AM | link  

MYSTERIES OF HIGH FINANCE   So let me see. AIG announces a huge loss. AIG announces it will raise billions in new capital. AIG announces it will increase its dividend. Why would a company dilute existing shareholders by raising new capital from new shareholders in order to pay a larger dividend to existing shareholders for the use of their capital? Why not cut the dividend, or eliminate it? Wouldn't that, effectively, be a capital-raise by the amount of the cut -- but without all the transaction costs?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:07 AM | link  


Thursday, May 08, 2008

REALLY, PAUL? HATE?   On his blog today, Paul Krugman says a Wall Street Journal poll showing that most economists find John McCain's policies the most fiscally responsible is a reason "Why you should hate economists." Now just why is disgreeing with Paul Krugman, even if Krugman were right, something that deserves our "hate"?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:36 PM | link  

"BOORIS..."   Boris Johnson is the mayor-elect of London. People with long and peculiar memoris, like our friend Jim Glass, recall Johnson's tell-all about his hallucinegenic experience wrtiting an op-ed for the New York Times. Here's Jim, from an email:
Seeing Boris Johnson get elected as London's new Mayor reminded me of an article he wrote a few years back about his experience writing an op-ed for the New York Times.

Since you are a fan of the Times' editorial pages, I thought you might enjoy this extract if you hadn't seen it.

Well, Hush My Mouth

.... "Booris," said Tobin [the Times editor], "'we love it! Everybody loves it. But we have, uh, a few issues of political correctness that I have to go through with you." There followed a bizarre hour-long negotiation with New York, as I sat in the Grays Road carpark, and Tobin read out the politically correct version of my piece...

I had said something to the effect that you don't make international law by giving new squash courts to the President of Guinea. This now read "the President of Chile." Come again? I said. Qué?

"Uh, Boris," said Tobin, "it's just easier in principle if we don't say anything deprecatory about a black African country, and since Guinea and Chile are both members of the UN Security Council, and since it doesn't affect your point, we would like to say Chile."

How craven and mealy-mouthed can you get? Why is a mild insult more bearable because it is directed at a crisis-ridden Latin American country, rather than a crisis-ridden African country? Is it, heaven forfend, because one country is Hispanic and the other is black? ...

In the whole poker game, I took only one trick. Tobin had told me at the outset that he had "issues" with my introductory sentence... I began the piece with the words, "Gee, thanks, guys," and Tobin wanted those words removed. For the life of me, I couldn’t see why.

"OK, Booris, I’ll tell you what the problem is. Our problem is that 'Gee' is an abbreviation for Jesus. For a century this has been a Jewish-owned paper, and we have to be extremely sensitive about anything that might offend Christian sensibilities. "We can say 'God', 'God' is fine, but we have to be very careful about anything that involves the name of the Lord and Saviour."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:04 AM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video of Tuesday night's appearance.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:34 AM | link  


Wednesday, May 07, 2008

SEEN ON THE ROADS HERE IN CALIFORNIA   Marxism has certainly been good to this fellow.

There's no such thing as a bad job -- only bad people who don't want to do what has to be done.

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Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:56 AM | link  


Tuesday, May 06, 2008

NICE TRY   David Brooks in his New York Times column this morning, takes a swing at Paul Krugman:
[Hillary Clinton on ABC's "This Week"] peddled her sham gas-tax holiday and repeated her attempt to blame Indiana’s job losses on outsourcing and Nafta. [Interviewer George] Stephanopoulos asked her to name a single economist who thinks a tax-holiday plan would work, and the daughter of Wellesley and Yale took the chance to shove the geeks into their lockers: “I’m not going to put my lot in with economists.”

When Stephanopoulos pointed out that Paul Krugman, a Times columnist, has raised doubts about the plan, Clinton lumped Krugman in with the Bush administration and said she wasn’t going to listen to the people responsible for the last seven years.

Very amusing, to suggest that either (1) Hillary is so daft that she doesn't know who Paul Krugman is or what he stands for, or (2) that she knows full well, and is trying to distance herself from such a madman. No such luck. This is mostly Brooks' spin. Here's a transcript of what was actually said:
STEPHANOPOULOS: Nearly every editorial board and economist in the country has come out against it. Even a supporter of yours, Paul Krugman of the New York Times, calls it pointless and disappointing. Can you name one economist, a credible economist, who supports this suspension?

CLINTON: Well, you know George, I think we've been for the last seven years seeing a tremendous amount of government power and elite opinion basically behind policies that haven't worked well for the middle class and hard-working Americans...

STEPHANOPOULOS: But can you name an economist who thinks this makes sense?

CLINTON: You know what, I'm not going to put my lot in with economists, because I know if we did it right, if we actually did it right, if we had a president who used all the tools of the presidency, we would design it in such a way that it would be implemented effectively.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:21 AM | link  


Monday, May 05, 2008

IF YOU CAN'T WEAR AN AMERICAN FLAG PIN, WEAR A CORPORATION!   What's the opposite of a "Benedict Arnold CEO"? A "Patriot Corporation," of course. It's Barack Obama's really evil idea to give companies tax breaks if they behave in politically correct ways. Here's our DC-insider friend "Mick Danger":
As much as Obama talks, he doesn’t seem to talk much about his ideas for dividing us.

Dividing all U.S. employers, that is, into two categories – those which are “Patriot Corporations” and those which are not; it’s a nightmare version of the “Do Bee” and “Don’t Bee” books from kindergarten, except this one is a process to be administered by the Secretary of the Treasury.

Want to be a “Patriot Corporation”? Be headquartered in the U.S., pay 60% of each employee’s health care premiums, be “neutral” to union organizers and don’t reduce employment levels or compensation below levels set by the bill.

The bill to accomplish this was introduced on August 2, 2007 by Illinois Democrat Dick Durbin with original cosponsors Barack Obama and Sherrod Brown, Democrat from Ohio. Roughly six months later, in February of 2008, Hillary Clinton cosponsored. Brown explains,

I've talked to Barack a lot about his Patriot Corporation Act, which is not trade per se, but it's certainly part of the economic package around globalization. The Patriot Corporation Act has not gotten the attention that I would hope it would. But, basically it says that if you play by the rules, if you pay decent wages, health benefits, pension; do your production here; don't resist unionization on neutral card check, then you will be designated a "Patriot Corporation" and you will get tax advantages and some [preference] on government contracts.
As with most of Obama's ideas, the economic effect would be far different than the political rhetoric. Can you feel the Change?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:58 PM | link  

NO, THIS IS THE WORST IDEA OF THE WEEK   Two of them now, and still only Monday. From the Treasury Department, we learn:
Washington, DC -- Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. will tour a Treasury Department printing facility in Kansas City next Thursday to observe the first mass production printing and packaging of the 2008 stimulus checks.
Thanks to "Mick" for the heads-up.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:54 PM | link  

WORST IDEA OF THE WEEK   ...and it's only Monday. From the Chronicle of Higher Education:
The time has come for the nation's wealthiest colleges and universities to rescue its leading newspapers — resources almost as vital to higher education's purpose as libraries, laboratories, classrooms, and concert halls. The plan I have in mind would call upon the richest institutions to set aside 3 percent of their endowments to buy The New York Times. That's for a start. Additional purchases of other newspapers by other endowments should follow.

...Why should colleges assume responsibility, or even care about the plight of newspapers? A higher-education institution's primary obligation is to its particular constituencies, of course, especially to its students. Consider student needs. How would students be able to think about the world beyond the institution's walls without the constant flow of timely information collected by journalists?

Moreover, faculty members are the experts that the news media often cite. The comments and observations of professors in newspapers like the Times, based on their research and expertise, promote the intellectual resources of their institutions and expand every reader's knowledge and understanding of the issue at hand...

Would the institutional owners hear a howl of protest from some alumni about buying "that liberal rag?" Probably, but on the seven campuses, the Times is broadly accepted as an essential, although fallible, source of information. Would the purchase divert money from other worthy purposes, like tuition support for poor and middle-class students? The money used to buy the Times would not be a gift but an investment with a monetary return, although a much smaller return than natural-gas fields or hedge funds would provide.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:58 AM | link  


Sunday, May 04, 2008

I LIKED IT BETTER WHEN HE WAS BEARISH   Paul Krugman in today's New York Times column:
Cross your fingers, knock on wood: it’s possible, though by no means certain, that the worst of the financial crisis is over.
Paul Krugman in Fortune, right at the bottom on March 17:
...here we go again. This is starting to look like a much more comprehensive financial crisis.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:52 PM | link  

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP   ...or if you did, you couldn't deconstruct it. According to the Wall Street Journal,
Priya Venkatesan taught English at Dartmouth College. She maintains that some of her students were so unreceptive of "French narrative theory" that it amounted to a hostile working environment...

Ms. Venkatesan lectured in freshman composition, intended to introduce undergraduates to the rigors of expository argument. "My students were very bully-ish, very aggressive, and very disrespectful," she told Tyler Brace of the Dartmouth Review. "They'd argue with your ideas." This caused "subversiveness," a principle English professors usually favor.

Ms. Venkatesan's scholarly specialty is "science studies," which, as she wrote in a journal article last year, "teaches that scientific knowledge has suspect access to truth." She continues: "Scientific facts do not correspond to a natural reality but conform to a social construct."

The agenda of Ms. Venkatesan's seminar, then, was to "problematize" technology and the life sciences. Students told me that most of the "problems" owed to her impenetrable lectures and various eruptions when students indicated skepticism of literary theory. She counters that such skepticism was "intolerant of ideas" and "questioned my knowledge in very inappropriate ways." Ms. Venkatesan, who is of South Asian descent, also alleges that critics were motivated by racism, though it is unclear why.

After a winter of discontent, the snapping point came while Ms. Venkatesan was lecturing on "ecofeminism," which holds, in part, that scientific advancements benefit the patriarchy but leave women out. One student took issue, and reasonably so – actually, empirically so. But "these weren't thoughtful statements," Ms. Venkatesan protests. "They were irrational." The class thought otherwise. Following what she calls the student's "diatribe," several of his classmates applauded.

Ms. Venkatesan informed her pupils that their behavior was "fascist demagoguery."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:49 PM | link  

I'M NOT...   Paul Krugman begins a blog post today with this ringing phrase:
I’m startled at Brad DeLong’s ignorance...
Krugman then goes on to show a little of his own. Citing the history of science fiction books involving economics, he mentions one by Robert Heinlein, but neglects Heinleins economics masterpiece -- The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. Intentional oversight, no doubt. The book is a brilliant allegory of the triumph and frustration of libertarian ideals

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:12 PM | link  

HOW TIMES HAVE CHANGED   Leftist commentators used to line up unquestioningly behing Paul Krugman's lies and distortions, as long as they were aimed only at Republicans. But now Krugman has turned his unscrupulous talents against Barack Obama, so all of a suddent the Left is in a tizzy about how "misleading" Krugman's attacks are. Here is Cass Sunstein on The New Rebublic's blog:
...in a recent column attacking Barack Obama, Paul Krugman has lost his bearings.

Krugman objects to Obama's suggestion, on Fox News, that he accepts the Republican claim that regulation should take the form of tradable emissions permits rather "top-down command and control." Krugman says that Obama is "giving Republicans credit for good ideas they never had."

...Actually Obama had it right. As Harvard's Robert Stavins, a long-time participant in the relevant debates and perhaps the world's leading expert on what actually happened, wrote me, "I think I know the history and provenance of U.S. of cap-and-trade and emission-reduction-credit systems relatively well, and Krugman's column is exceptionally misleading."

The major emissions trading program in federal law, enacted in 1990 and focused on acid deposition, was developed under Bush 41, in the White House no less (under the leadership of C. Boyden Gray, an influential Republican and a pioneering figure, in political circles, with respect to emissions trading). The law was pushed through an initially skeptical Democratic-controlled Congress. The pivotal role of the Bush White House has been carefully documented in books and articles. (See, for example, A. Denny Ellerman et al., Markets for Clean Air.)

The several early emissions trading systems, adopted in the 1970s, were established in Republican administrations (Nixon/Ford), with significant opposition from Democrats (and environmental organizations). The trading program for lead in gasoline was also adopted under a Republican president (Reagan).

Krugman is quite right to say that the Reagan administration resisted a regulatory response to acid deposition (a point that is irrelevant to Obama's claims). He is also right to say that economists of all stripes supported tradable permit systems by 1990. But in the political domain (which was clearly the topic), Obama was correct to say that such systems have come from Republicans. As Robert Stavins writes, "the history is what it is, and unfortuately Krugman has misled his readers in order to score some political points."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:11 PM | link  


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