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7:00 pm EDT
Friday
May 9
Unindicted co-counterconspirator-in-chief Donald Luskin will appear on CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Don will be talking about -- you guessed it -- politics, the economy, and the market.

Chronicle of the Conspiracy
Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Saturday, March 15, 2008

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video, in which we define a whole new meaning of "liquidity".


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:36 PM | link  


Friday, March 14, 2008

FED AS "CLUMSY TIGHTROPE WALKER"   We're quoted in Monday's Investors Business Daily on the Fed's rescue of Bear Stearns:
"This whole situation has been rife with moral hazard, but that doesn't mean people haven't learned lessons," said Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics.

Luskin, though, doesn't see a moral hazard in the New York Fed's move to provide emergency financing to Bear Stearns.

The Fed was created precisely for that purpose -- "to step in and prevent a run on a bank."

Rather, the moral hazard came from the Fed lowering its key borrowing rate to 1% in 2003 and keeping it there for too long.

By making money available at a negative real interest rate, it encouraged mortgage providers to "lend money to people who don't have jobs," Luskin said...

He sees the Fed as a clumsy tightrope walker that overcompensated by holding rates too high in the late '90s and then holding them too low early this decade after the Nasdaq crashed...

"Securitized debt instruments are very powerful, but very dangerous, tools," Luskin said. "Securitization is a good idea. . . . We just have to learn a little more about transparency and risk management."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:02 PM | link  


Thursday, March 13, 2008

SAME DAY, TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT MARKET CALLS   Is this what investment professionals call diversification? Or is this what investment professionals call bullshit? You decide, when Jim Cramer says not to buy stocks and not to short stocks on the very same day. Thanks to "Irrational Exuberance" for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:37 PM | link  

GASBAGARINO DOES IT AGAIN   I'm joined by Dennis Kneale as a CNBC guest who is sick and tired of being (a) interrupted and (b) insulted on-air by "on-air editor" Charles Gasparino. Like me, Kneale is demanding an on-air apology. It's getting clearer and clearer that Gasparino -- a malignant, uninformed thug -- is becoming a liability to CNBC.

Thanks to "Irrational Exuberance" for the video.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:30 PM | link  

SPITZER? I HARDLY KNOW HER!   From my DC-insider friend "Mick Danger," who says this is making the rounds in the nation's capital.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:53 AM | link  


Wednesday, March 12, 2008

QUESTIONABLE COMPANY   Sadly, I'm quoted here on Hillary Clinton's plan to freeze mortgage rates amidst a cavalcade of hacks, quacks, and media whores masquerading as "experts" (includine the execrable Peter Schiff) -- all of whom you have to wade through to get to my bon mot at the very end.
According to Don Luskin, the chief investment officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC, the freeze wouldn’t simply “scare lenders away” – it would “destroy an industry.”

“Right now the mortgage lending business in this country is in the process of shutting down. And you do this to it you’re going to kill them. They’ll never come back,” said Luskin, “so that’s going to actually worsen the crisis it is designed to ameliorate.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:44 PM | link  

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video of yesteray's appearence.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:42 AM | link  

DAVID MAMET DECIDES HE IS NOT A LIBERAL   He's almsot there. Another couple years and he'll realize he's a libertarian. In the Village Voice:
This is, to me, the synthesis of this worldview [political liberalism] with which I now found myself disenchanted: that everything is always wrong.

But in my life, a brief review revealed, everything was not always wrong, and neither was nor is always wrong in the community in which I live, or in my country. Further, it was not always wrong in previous communities in which I lived, and among the various and mobile classes of which I was at various times a part.

...What about the role of government? Well, in the abstract, coming from my time and background, I thought it was a rather good thing, but tallying up the ledger in those things which affect me and in those things I observe, I am hard-pressed to see an instance where the intervention of the government led to much beyond sorrow.

But if the government is not to intervene, how will we, mere human beings, work it all out?

I wondered and read, and it occurred to me that I knew the answer, and here it is: We just seem to. How do I know? From experience...

Strand unacquainted bus travelers in the middle of the night, and what do you get? A lot of bad drama, and a shake-and-bake Mayflower Compact. Each, instantly, adds what he or she can to the solution. Why? Each wants, and in fact needs, to contribute—to throw into the pot what gifts each has in order to achieve the overall goal, as well as status in the new-formed community. And so they work it out.

Thanks to David Williams.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:04 AM | link  

ARE WE FORGETTING SOMEONE?   Kim Strassel makes a great -- but incomplete -- point in this morning's Wall Street Journal:
The fall of New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer holds many lessons, and the press will surely be examining them in coming months. But don't expect the press corps to delve into the biggest lesson of all -- its own role as his enabler.

...from the start, the press corps acted as an adjunct of Spitzer power, rather than a skeptic of it.

...[Spitzer] knew what sort of storyline they'd be sympathetic to, and spun it. He knew, too, that as financial journalism has become more competitive, breaking news can make a career. He doled out scoops to favored reporters, who repaid him with allegiance. News organizations that dared to criticize him were cut off. After a time, few criticized anymore.

Instead, reporters felt obligated to run with whatever he handed them.

Plenty of criticism here for the media in general, and specifically for Time, the Atlantic, and the Washington Post. But not a word about Spitzer's number one enabler, the Wall Street Journal, primarily through the self-serving sensationalism of its leakmaestro supremo, Charles Gasparino.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:23 AM | link  

THE REAL TAX THREAT FROM THE LEFT   Most analysts have focused on the effects for the economy and the markets if a Democratic president allows the 2003 tax cuts on wages, dividends and capital gains to expire after 2010. But the worst tax threat is from Barack Obama's proposal to uncap the taxation of wages for Social Security. Andrew Biggs in the Wall Street Journal:
Mr. Obama...proposes to solve the looming Social Security shortfall exclusively with higher taxes.

"Once people are making over $200,000 to $250,000," Mr. Obama says, "they can afford to pay a little more in payroll tax." No shared sacrifice, no outreach to moderates or conservatives, here...

Mr. Obama's plan fixes less than half of Social Security's long-term deficit, making further tax increases inevitable...

Mr. Obama's modest improvements to Social Security's financing come at a steep cost. The top marginal federal tax rates would effectively increase to 50.3% from 37.9%, equivalent to repealing the Bush income tax cuts almost three times over.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:17 AM | link  


Tuesday, March 11, 2008

BUT OTHER THAN THAT, IT'S A VERY PRUDENT BUDGET   Our friend Brian Riedl at Heritage Foundation isn't prone to exaggeration or hyperbole. So we take it seriously when he writes as follows on the federal budget proposed by the Democratic House majority:
...the House Democratic majority has proposed a fiscal year (FY) 2009 federal budget that:
* Raises taxes by $1.265 trillion over five years and $3.911 trillion over 10 years, or more than $3,135per household annually;

* Includes 17 reserve funds that could be used to raise taxes by hundreds of billions more;

* Increases discretionary spending by 8 percent and does not terminate a single wasteful program; and

* Completely ignores the impending explosion of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid costs.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:34 PM | link  

AND THE WINNER IS...   The speculation is over. Here is the Post cover headline. It's a beauty.

Update... There's one advantage of having Spitzer replaced by his legally blind lieutenant governor: the new guv can make do with less expensive hookers.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:57 AM | link  

THE JOURNAL EDIT PAGE SAYS IT BEST   As usual.
Mr. Spitzer coasted into the Governorship on the wings of a reputation as a "tough" public prosecutor. Mr. Spitzer, though, was no emperor. He had not merely arrogated to himself the powers he held and used with such aggression. He was elected.

In our system, citizens agree to invest one of their own with the power of public prosecution. We call this a public trust. The ability to bring the full weight of state power against private individuals or entities has been recognized since the Magna Carta as a power with limits. At nearly every turn, Eliot Spitzer has refused to admit that he was subject to those limits.

The stupendously deluded belief that the sitting Governor of New York could purchase the services of prostitutes was merely the last act of a man unable to admit either the existence of, or need for, limits. At the least, he put himself at risk of blackmail, and in turn the possible distortion of his public duties. Mr. Spitzer's recklessness with the state's highest elected office, though, is of a piece with his consistent excesses as Attorney General from 1999 to 2006.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:39 AM | link  


Monday, March 10, 2008

KUDLOW REPLAY   Here's the YouTube video of today's hit.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:18 PM | link  

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING NOT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT   But sort of different. Chess for three players! Thanks to Mark Spahn.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:36 PM | link  

STARTING A NEW SPITZER THREAD   This is going to keep us in stitches for weeks. Here's the New York Magazine "Intelligencer" guessing what the Post's headline tomorrow will be:
NAILED

SCREWED

SPENT

RING STING

HOOK, LINE & SPITZER

STEAMROLLED

BLOWING OFF STEAM

LOVE POTION #9

A NIGHT AT THE SPITZ

AN EL' OF A GOOD TIME

SPITZER SWALLOWS

Update... Hold the presses! More from the Intelligencer.
From a redacted copy of the sealed complaint...
"Kirsten" did not think Client 9 was difficult, but he might have asked her to do things ("basic things") that "you might not think were safe."
Update 2... Here are the Google cached images of the "Spokes Models" of the Emperors Club VIP. If they don't come up when you click on the link, turn off "safe search" temporarily and try again. Courtest of "Jim S."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:13 PM | link  

KRUGMAN WEIGHS IN ON SPITZER   From May, 2003:
There is, alas, only one Eliot Spitzer. ...you want to stand up and cheer when Mr. Spitzer, New York's attorney general, wins another round against malefactors of great wealth...

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:01 PM | link  

TWO GOOD POLITICAL GAGS   1) Saying that Hillary Clinton has White House experience is like saying Yoko Ono was a Beatle. [via Dave Nadig]

2) Barack Obama has a new strategy for going after the Irish vote. He's going to add an apostophe to his name.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:16 PM | link  

A REVENGE SWEETER THAN I COULD EVER IMAGINE   The New York Times must have hated reporting this breaking news:
Gov. Eliot Spitzer has informed his most senior administration officials that he had been involved in a prostitution ring, an administration official said this morning.

Mr. Spitzer, who was huddled with his top aides early this afternoon, had hours earlier abruptly canceled his scheduled public events for the day. He is set to make an announcement about 2:15 this afternoon at his Manhattan office.

Mr. Spitzer, a first-term Democrat who pledged to bring ethics reform and end the often seamy ways of Albany, is married with three children.

Just last week, federal prosecutors arrested four people in connection with an expensive prostitution operation. Administration officials would not say that this was the ring with which the governor had become involved.

Update... This gets better and better. How sweet that Spitzer, whose hallmark as New York Attorney General was criminalizing regulatory infractions, should be hoist on his own petard. The Times again, reporting that Spitzer induced a prostitute to travel from New York to rendezvous with him in Washington:
Federal prosecutors rarely charge clients in prostitution cases, which are generally seen as state crimes. But the Mann Act, passed by Congress in 1910 to address prostitution, human trafficking and what was viewed at the time as immorality in general, makes it a crime to transport someone between states for the purpose of prostitution. The four defendants charged in the case unsealed last week were all charged with that crime, along with several others.
Update 2...My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" dials in from the nation's capital:
CNBC just said that the Emperor’s Club VIP offered "models, chaperones and investment advice."

Investment advice? Imagine their voice mail system: "Hello, and thank you for calling Emperor’s Club VIP. For models, press 1. For bonds, press 2. For bondage, press 3..."

Update 3... The web site of Emperors Club VIP seems to be down for some reason. Here is Google's cached version. Some highlights:
Representing Spokes models of superior verbal and non-verbal communication skills, they make your customers feel important and engaged while providing a professionally informative experience.

Skilled, attractive, intelligent, talented Spokes Models consistently deliver excellent return on your investment. When looking to directly connect with your audience, our Spokes Models are perfect preference. Reliable and upbeat Emperors’ Club vip Spokes Models are always prepared, ready to perform.

Update 4... Here's the cached version of catalog of the Emperors Club VIP girls.Update 5... Reader Dave Duval says,
It just doesn't get much better than this. Maybe Spitzer and Bill Lerach will end up as roommates!
Update 6...The irrepressible Jim Glass weighs in:
A 2 1/2 hour guy (with a $1,720 an hour girl tapping his account).
... "Client 9" was told that his appointment with the "model" would begin at about 10 p.m. The client asked who it was and was informed it was "Kristen." He replied: "Great. OK. Wonderful." The client inquired about passing extra funds to the "model" to build a reserve in his account...

...At 9:32 p.m., a call was receive by Lewis from "Kristen" that she was in the room. At 12:02 a.m., "Kristen" called to tell Lewis that she was in the hotel room alone, and that the appointment had concluded. It had "gone very well." She had collected $4,300. She said she liked him and did not think he was "difficult."

If so, she's the only one ever. ;-)

So Eliot learns what it's like to be the guy gets leaked upon, for a change. The Feds normally don't go after johns, but somebody saw his name in the case file and said "Oh, boy!". The wages of being holier-than-thou.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:03 PM | link  


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