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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Friday, February 01, 2008 HOW SWEET OF THEM TO REMEMBER.... From the Cato blog...Not long ago, Donald Luskin headed-up something called the “Paul Krugman Truth Squad,” a band of analysts devoted to keeping New York Times columnist Paul Krugman honest. Well, after years of seeing education stories in the media rife with misleading, incomplete, or just plain wrong “facts,” it seems that in the tradition of Luskin’s crusaders its time for a truth squad to get to work in education. Cato’s Center for Educational Freedom accepts that challenge, and will from here-on out work to debunk bad education data whenever and wherever in the media we find it (assuming we’re not working on other, bigger things, that is).Thanks to reader Jon Redden for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:10 AM |
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Thursday, January 31, 2008 NOTICE TO READERS! Join Research about Readers of Political Blogs - Chance for $100 Amazon Gift CardRequirements: - regular reader of political blogs - 4 or more different blogs a few times per week - owns a personal computer - age 18 or over The purpose of this research is to investigate the role that readers play in shaping blogs. Participation in this research will involve one or more phone interviews and optional logging of blog-reading activity. There is no risk to participants and involvement can be ended at any time. Participants will be entered in a drawing for a $100 Amazon.com gift card at the end of the research period. Participants’ privacy and rights will be completely protected. Participation is completely voluntary and you may discontinue participation at any time.
If interested contact: Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:37 PM |
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TRUTH IS WHERE YOU FIND IT My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" is a true connoisseur of honesty in politics -- he has to be, since it is so rare. So savor this morsel of truth from an unlikely source, Bill Clinton: In a long, and interesting speech, he characterized what the U.S. and other industrialized nations need to do to combat global warming this way: "We just have to slow down our economy..." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:10 PM |
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JOKE OF THE DAY Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:51 AM |
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TRYING TO PUT THE BEST FACE ON McCAIN Like the Chinese proverb -- "relax and enjoy the inevitable"? We're quoted in today's Investors Business Daily: McCain campaigned and voted against the 2001 tax cut, saying, "I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us at the expense of middle-class Americans." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:38 AM |
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Wednesday, January 30, 2008 JOKE OF THE DAYPosted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:02 PM |
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THE ROMERS STRIKE AGAIN! David and Christina Romer come up with another fascinating paper, this one on whether the FOMC adds any value to its staff's economic forecasts (it doesn't). The abstract: Should monetary policymakers take the staff forecast of the effects of policy actions as given, or should they attempt to include additional information? This paper seeks to shed light on this question by testing the usefulness of the FOMC's own forecasts. Twice a year, the FOMC makes forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. FOMC members have access to the staff forecasts when they prepare their forecasts. We find that the optimal combination of the FOMC and staff forecasts in predicting inflation and unemployment puts a weight of essentially zero on the FOMC forecast and essentially one on the staff forecast: the FOMC appears to have no value added in forecasting. The results for predicting real growth are less clear-cut. We also find statistical and narrative evidence that differences between the FOMC and staff forecasts help predict monetary policy shocks, suggesting that policymakers act in part on the basis of their apparently misguided information.Thanks to Sean Flynn for the link! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:02 PM |
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KUDLOW REPLAY It's Bob Shiller, the great contrarian. Or is he just plain contrary? Here's the YouTube video of yesterday's Kudlow hit. I say "nobody likes Hillary Clinton," and he has to say that he likes her. I say that last week's stock market volatility was due to the emergency unwind of SoGen's fraudulent futures positions, and he says that nobody knows what makes the market move -- but he's (somehow) sure it's not that, and he's (somehow) sure that it's really all about subprime anxiety. How come a Yale dropout comes on TV and tells it like it is, while a Yale professor comes on TV and just makes stuff up? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:23 AM |
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Tuesday, January 29, 2008 LOOK FOR THE UNION LABEL My DC-insider friend "Mick Danger" contemplates the loveliness of increasing union power, under a Democratic presidency -- and now.It’s easy to overlook Senator Obama’s background as a "community organizer" because his smile is genuine, his life story is impressive and his rhetoric is so evocative. What is a “community organizer” anyway? What do they do and why? Do they get better deals for the average person? No, that’s Wal-Mart. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:06 AM |
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Monday, January 28, 2008 DOES THIS EXPLAIN WHY THE TRADER WENT ROGUE? Why not? Rings true. We are talking about France, after all. Thanks to Patrick Duggan for the link.Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:50 AM |
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JOKE OF THE DAY Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:49 AM |
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GET THE WEEK OFF TO A GREAT START Check this out, and then don't worry so much about subprime slime. Thanks to Mark Spahn for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:45 AM |
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Sunday, January 27, 2008 TANSTAAFB We're quoted in BusinessWeek:There's just one problem: If Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pushes rates too low, he risks sparking inflation. And with oil prices remaining stubbornly high, rarely has inflation loomed as large over rate cut decisions as it does now. "There's no such thing as a free lunch," said Donald Luskin of advisory firm Trend Macrolytics in a note to clients after Tuesday's rate cut. "And there's no such thing as a free bailout, either. Inflation is the price of this one." Inflation, of course, eats away at real asset returns, canceling out some of the gains of a bull market. One telling sign that it's a concern: The price of gold, the traditional hedge against rising prices, spiked on the day the Fed announced its interest rate reduction. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:17 PM |
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