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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Thursday, May 31, 2007 HILLARY'S NUREMBERG DEFENSE "I was just following protocol." That's the essence of the haughty and evasive response of Hillary Clinton to accusations that she abused free corporate jet travel offered by a wealthy supporter:Clinton's travel, along with and consulting fees paid to her husband, the former president, have come to light recently in a lawsuit against Vinod Gupta, a Clinton contributor and chief executive of the data company, InfoUSA Inc.My DC lawyer/lobbyist friend sees something more significant in the story, beyond the issue of casual corruption: This is just so perfect...note how quickly the writer grazes Hillary's support for card check legislation -- which obviates the current requirement for secret ballot by workers to approve union affiliation -- without pausing to explain it, or even citing the actual term.Clinton struck several populist notes Wednesday in a speech at a union hall and at a town hall appearance at a North Las Vegas high school with large number of minority and low-income students.Hmm. Yeah, I know, no one pays attention to an issue until they think it's a threat. If we have a Democratic president in January 2009, we will have a Democratic congress and card check will move up on the agenda because the Democrats are afraid to say no to powerful unions. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:27 AM |
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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 THE TIMES BLASTS DOBBS Okay, let's set aside the hypocrisy of the New York Times giving Paul Krugman a pass on hundreds of uncorrected errors and downright lies (such as his claim last week that a recent E. Coli outbreak can be blamed on libertarian economist Milton Friedman). Instead, let's savor the moment as Times economics commentator David Leonhardt viciously attacks the lies of Lou Dobbs. Nothing about his ridiculous lies about global trade, of which we pointed out many in a column earlier this month. But there's plenty to choose from in Dobbs' ongoing campaign against immigration. Here's Leonhardt:...one of Mr. Dobbs’s correspondents said there had been 7,000 cases of leprosy in this country over the previous three years, far more than in the past.There's more... check it out! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:39 PM |
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APPEAL TO AUTHORITY? OR APPEAL TO ERROR? You read the financial media, you watch financial TV, and chances are you pretty much accept what is offered as "fact" by the "experts" who appear there. You may not agree with their opinions or conclusions, but you probably at least accept as factual the statistics that they cite. Not so fast. Let's revisit the "bull/bear" debate I had with Barry Ritholtz a month or so back, on the US News Capital Commerce blog. In a back-and-forth on the importance of "mortgage equity extraction" as a driver of personal consumption expenditures, Ritholz claimed: The impact of mortgage equity withdrawal on consumer spending was calculated via the "Greenspan-Kennedy" method, a statistical system developed by Fed economist James Kennedy and former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. Kennedy/Greenspan determined that 51 percent of MEW flowed through to personal consumption.I subsequently chided Ritholtz for appealing to authority in citing this and other analyses. But it turns out I was being too generous. I should have checked Ritholtz's authority. I did this morning, and I discovered that Ritholtz was completely wrong in what he says about the Kennedy/Greenspan analysis. Download this spreadsheet posted by Kennedy on the Fed's web site, and see for yourself. Line (1) of Table 2 gives the free cash-flow from MEW each year. Line (9) gives the share used for personal consumption expenditures. Divide (9) by (1) and you get the percentage of MEW used for PCE. The largest year ever (since 1991, which is as far back as the data goes) is 2005 at 15%. The average is 12%. So where did Ritholtz get "51 percent"? Did he just make it up? Did he read it on some blog somewhere? Lesson: you just have to question everything you hear. Update... Reader Rich Sinda says, I'm surprised you didn't know this but 73% of statistics are made up on the spot. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:54 PM |
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007 THE MYSTERIOUS EAST Wow... here's an over-the-top way to make government regulators responsible for the results of their regulating:Zheng Xiaoyu, former director of China's State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), was sentenced to death by a Beijing court Tuesday morning.What am I missing? If you get the death penalty, is it such a big deal to lose your political rights "for life" -- or for that matter, to be imprisoned for seven years? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:53 PM |
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AH, FOR THE DAYS WHEN POLITICIANS WERE HONEST ABOUT ECONOMICS A remembrance of Boris Yeltsin: Journalist: "So, President Yeltsin, how would you describe the state of the Russian economy in one word?"Thanks to reader Mike Daley. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:48 PM |
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HERE'S A "GLOBAL TEST" WE SHOULD DEFINITELY TAKE! Liberals always want to emulate Europe, so let's do it! There's a tax-cutting war going on there. Let's join in! The move toward lower levies on corporate profits in Spain, Germany, France and Britain is aimed at attracting companies and reinforcing the strongest economic expansion in six years. It comes after Ireland and new European Union members from Eastern Europe succeeded in attracting investment, and irking their larger rivals, with tax rates of less than 20 percent, among the world's lowest...By the way, the corporate tax rate in the US is 35% -- equal to the very highest figure mentioned here! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:06 PM |
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Monday, May 28, 2007 THE MYSTERIOUS EAST Our monetary policy correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" has always been perturbed by the use of animal imagery in economics -- "bull," "bear," "hawk" and "dove." Now the Chinese have moved beyond that with a zoological vocabulary all their own, befitting their sky-high speculative stock market:"Ghost shares" are highly risky, but "black horses" have beaten expectations. Buying cheap to sell high later is known as "fighting for the hat", while selling at a loss to avoid further losses is "meat slicing". Investors who think a piece of news will boost prices claim to be "lifting the sedan chair". Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:38 PM |
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DEMS AND UNIONS -- A VIRAL PAIRING? Unions helped the Dems sweep the 2006 elections. Now will Dems help unions with new rules that allow them to expand their influence, putting them in a position to help the Dems even more (so that the Dems will be in an even better position to help the unions expand even further, and so on...)? Here's a Wall Street Journal commentary on John Edwards' efforts to push unionization of a meat-packing plant in North Carolina, a plant that has twice rejected unionization, via elections conducted legally by secret ballot. Mr. Edwards...supports the union in its fight against Smithfield and he supports legislation under consideration in Congress that would make it easier to use the card check instead of an election. Mr. Edwards also recently sent a letter to Smithfield CEO Larry Pope demanding that he "protect the right of workers" to bargain collectively. He wants Mr. Pope to support the card check.My DC lawyer/lobbyist friend writes, Each of the Democratic candidates lust for the endorsements of the unions, mostly the new ones such as SEIU and AFSCME. No hardhats there; plenty of brooms and bureaucrats. Think of the bright, helpful folks at your DMV. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:49 AM |
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