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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Saturday, September 02, 2006 DON'T DARE MISS THIS ONE! From the TED blog:At the University of Chicago, Professor Michael C. LaBarbera has prepared a comprehensive analysis of the Biology of B-Movie Monsters. In it, he discusses the brittleness of King Kong's bone structure, how Mothra breathes, and who would really win in a battle between a tiny-tiny man and a tarantula. Read the article before placing your bets. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:55 PM |
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KEEP THOSE CARDS AND LETTERS COMING IN A reaction to my latest SmartMoney.com column. What did I do to deserve this? It's people like you who live in ivory towers that should keep their mouths shut about the economy. What do you have to worry about with your income and savings? Who the hell are you to say to the rest of us that the economy's weakness is exaggerated? Do you really cut back on the amount of driving you do or just pay the price to fill your tank at the pump while most of the rest of us just put in twenty dollars worth of gas? Have you taken the time to count the number of contractors that have had to shut down construction projects because they know they can't sell the homes the want to build? That new homes already built are not selling? That existing home sales are significantly down, all because of the Fed's insatiable appetite for interest rate hikes?? You sickeningly remind me of the first President Bush who, while in office as president of a country mired in recession, was quoted as saying that he didn't see any problems with the economy. Well, sure, if you're George Bush or Donald Luskin, multimillionaires, you certainly wouldn't see any problems. The problem with you and this other blockhead Bernanke is that you're both two effete individuals whose livelihood doesn't now or probably never did depend on the strength or weakness of the economy. You have nothing to lose regardless of its direction, so you sit back and pontificate as though you actually know what you're talking about. Do us all a favor and shut the hell up. And when you see that other insufferable and arrogant buffoon, Alan Greenspan, who set out to wreck the stock market in 2000, did it, put small companies out of business and cost millions of people their 401K retirements, tell him I said to drop dead. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:18 PM |
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Friday, September 01, 2006 SO WHERE'S THE RETRACTION? The Washington Post edit page has the decency to eat crow -- and lots of it -- now that the Valerie Plame scandal has reached its with-a-whimper end.WE'RE RELUCTANT to return to the subject of former CIA employee Valerie Plame because of our oft-stated belief that far too much attention and debate in Washington has been devoted to her story and that of her husband, former ambassador Joseph C. Wilson IV, over the past three years. But all those who have opined on this affair ought to take note of the not-so-surprising disclosure that the primary source of the newspaper column in which Ms. Plame's cover as an agent was purportedly blown in 2003 was former deputy secretary of state Richard L. Armitage.Like, for instance, the New York Times -- which has scarcely mentioned the Armitage development: Reporter Scott Shane, July 24, 2005: "The White House response to Mr. Wilson's accusations, as it unfolded over the next eight days, would be aggressive and comprehensive. At home and from the African road trip, in on-the-record briefings and in background tips to reporters, the president's aides sought to rebut Mr. Wilson's statements and undercut his credibility....But in the enthusiasm of the campaign to discredit Mr. Wilson, someone would expose the real job of the diplomat's wife, Valerie, a C.I.A. officer who had worked under cover for two decades, hiding her position from even close friends and relatives. Whether thoughtless or deliberate, the shattering of Valerie Wilson's cover would prompt the C.I.A. to seek a criminal investigation into the leak. And the investigation would be turned over to a special counsel with a reputation for relentlessly pursuing his quarry."Thanks to David Duval and Clay Waters for the links. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:38 AM |
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JOKE OF THE DAY Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:59 AM |
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A REALLY DUMB ARGUMENT The Wall Street Journal edit page is openminded enough to give space to full-throated cries for the policies of opposing ideologies, as we see in this mornings's "Jump Into the Risk Pool" by Ron Gettelfinger, president of the United Auto Workers. But there's no mystery why the Journal can be fearless about letting opponents speak, while the New York Times edit page rigidly restricts access to those parroting its own views -- the Leftist point of view is not very persuasive. Gettelfinger tries to make the case for socialized health care with dumb arguments like this: Starbucks...operates in a competitive environment that is worlds away from manufacturing. But Starbucks now spends more money on health care than it does on coffee -- not unlike GM, which has for some time paid more money for health care than it does for steel. Starbucks, like GM, is finding out the hard way that America's benefits crisis cannot be solved by any one company or industry.But Starbucks spends more on labor than it does on coffee -- so has Starbucks "found out the hard way" that private employment of its own workforce is no solution to "the labor crisis"? Should government hire all the baristas? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:24 AM |
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Thursday, August 31, 2006 WHO SAYS BEN BERNANKE DOESN'T HAVE A SENSE OF HUMOR? At the conclusion of Fed chief Ben Bernanke's speech today, it was time for questions...MODERATOR: Thank you Dr. Bernanke. As I mentioned a few minutes ago, we do have a few minutes. So, I am going to ask him if he would respond to some questions. And we could do this the old-fashioned way, where I ask the questions and you provide the answer or, this jeopardy kind of thing. Almost, considering that these questions have been hermetically sealed in a mayonnaise jar and kept in the turban that Johnny Carson used in his Carnack routine, you could provide me the answer first and then I could read the questions.Humor aside, I have to seriously wonder why -- of all the things that Ben Bernanke could have said -- he free associated here to an interest rate? And of all the interest rates, why four percent? Is this a clue as to where Fed funds will be in a year? Is this where Bernanke fears core inflation will be in a year? Who knows... but as Freud said, there are no accidents. That number means something. Thanks to our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" for the transcript. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:00 PM |
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AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT Our "public editor" Irwin Chusid is right. This is "the most ludicrous eBay item title I've ever seen." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:19 PM |
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JOKE OF THE DAY Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:07 AM |
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COLLATERAL DAMAGE IN THE WAR AGAINST WAL-MART Don't worry -- it's only the first amendment. From the New York Sun: Wal-Mart Watch, an opposition group supported by unions, has sent letters to the attorneys general of Arizona and Nebraska asking them to outlaw television spots Wal-Mart is running in those states. Wal-Mart Watch claims the states can do this thanks to consumer-protection laws that require truth in advertising.My DC lawyer/lobbyist friend, who as always insists on anonymity, adds: The anti-Wal-Mart unions aren’t trying to organize Wal-Mart workers (who love their company and disdain the unions) they are trying to kill Wal-Mart because “it’s always the low price.” Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:00 AM |
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Wednesday, August 30, 2006 GET ME REWRITE Greg Mankiw reports:The NY Times two days ago in a front-page, above-the-fold article:wages and salaries now make up the lowest share of the nation’s gross domestic product since the government began recording the data in 1947.The NY Times online today, presumably to be reported in tomorrow's paper (on what page?) [emphasis added]:Perhaps the biggest surprise in today’s report was a surge in wage-and-salary income during the first half of this year. Between the fourth quarter of last year and the second quarter of 2006, it grew at an annual rate of about 7 percent, after adjusting for inflation, up from an earlier estimate of 4 percent, according to MFR, a consulting firm in New York. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:17 PM |
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A GREAT LITTLE THOUGHT EXPERIMENT From Cafe Hayek today: This editorial in today’s New York Times -- entitled "Downward Mobility" -- does its best to extract depressing news from the latest report issued by the U.S. Census Bureau.What follows is a long, long list of all the improvements in life that occurred between 1967 and today. The conclusion: Sure, I’m happy that I live today with today’s income – but, again, if forced to choose between living in 1967...with today’s higher income and living today with 1967’s...lower income, I wouldn’t hesitate for as much as a nano-second to choose living today with the lower income from the past.In other words, we living today do not have to make the choice given in this thought experiment. We get higher income and all the improvements in daily life. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:35 PM |
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HAZARDS OF DUKE AT THE TIMES' Now that Slate is owned by the Washington Post, the New York Times critiques just get better and better: Imagine you are the world's most powerful newspaper and you have invested your credibility in yet another story line that is falling apart, crumbling as inexorably as Jayson Blair's fabrications and the flawed reporting on Saddam Hussein's supposed WMD. What to do?Update...Reader Jameson Campaigne points out the juicy detail that the author of this anti-Times screed is a certified liberal -- and former New York Times reporter: Stuart Taylor Jr. Update 2... Slate really is on a roll! Here's another one, thanks to reader Sylvain Galineau: ...the NYT reefers a big piece on arid conditions in the Great Plains, which have left "farmers and ranchers with conditions that they compare to those of the Dust Bowl of the 1930's." It's the worst drought since … well, maybe 2003, "an extremely dry summer that … brought back memories of the 1930's Dust Bowl" (NYT, Sept. 5, 2003). Or maybe 2002, when "farmers shrug[ed] and wonder[ed] if a new Dust Bowl [would] soon be upon them" (NYT, May 3, 2002). Or 1998: "a dry spell that officials say shows signs of developing into the costliest and most devastating the region has seen since the Dust Bowl years" (NYT, Aug. 12, 1998). Or 1996: "Coming after two years of low rainfall and a number of other weather problems, the ferocity of this year's drought has slowly begun to evoke memories for some here of the Depression-era Dust Bowl" (NYT, May 20, 1996). Or 1988: "Since the spring's dry weather evolved into the worst drought since the Dust Bowl, the farm policy has been turned upside down" (NYT, July 10, 1988). Or 1982: "And when the winds come, turning the sky dark with dust and burying fence rows under shifting dunes of soil and thistle, those who are old enough remember the bleak days of the Dust Bowl." (NYT, May 14, 1982). Or 1980: "Is the nation in for a new Dust Bowl or at least a succession of scorching summers?" (NYT, July 17, 1980). Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:17 PM |
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HERE'S HOW IT'S DONE Even finance professors indulge in deceptive self-aggrandizement when they portray their track records as market forecasters. In this morning's Wall Street Journal, Yale's Robert Shiller and Wellesley's Karl Case talk of the decline in the US housing market. They brag, The market spoiler was in place some two years ago. At that time, we felt that the spectacular price increases could not be justified. The psychology of that time could not continue indefinitely, and indeed it has not.See? "We told you so!" "We knew it all along." But another way of saying it is, "We were two years early" or "Our broken clock is finally right." . Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:14 AM |
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THERE'S REALITY, AND THERE'S THE TIMES From the Christian Science Monitor this morning: At last, buoyant economy lifts incomesFrom the New York Times this morning: Census Reports Slight Increase in ’05 Incomes The nation’s median household income rose slightly faster than inflation last year for the first time in six years, the Census Bureau reported yesterday. The rise, however, had little to do with bigger paychecks — in fact, both men and women earned less in 2005 than 2004. Rather, census officials said, more family members were taking jobs to make ends meet, and some people made more money from investments and other sources beyond wages. While the economy has been strong by most statistical measures for the past several years, its benefits have not translated into improvements in the standard of living for many people. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:03 AM |
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Tuesday, August 29, 2006 I ACTUALLY AGREE WITH KRUGMAN Following an interview with Gene Epstein, author of the new book Econospinning, the interviewer gave Paul Krugman a chance to respond to Epstein's critiques. At issue here is Epstein's charge that Krugman confused statistics from two different employment reports issued by the Department of Labor -- the "population survey" and the "establishment survey." Here's is Krugman's response:"He apparently thinks he can read my mind. He claims that I mixed data from two surveys to write an article about job growth, even though data from only one survey appeared in the article. I used only the one survey that I cited. Please let your listeners know that I am happy to acknowledge errors that I actually make, but not those that are figments of a critic's imagination."Krugman is telling a big lie here when he says he is happy to acknowledge mistakes. We know that's not true. But he's right that Epstein's critique amounts to mind-reading. Krugman throws out an unsourced number -- that 140,000 new jobs per month are required to keep up with labor force growth -- but it's sheerly Epstein's supposition that Krugman got that number somehow from one or the other of the DOL's surveys. Apparently Epstein was the coach standing behind former New York Times "public editor" Dan Okrent when Okrent took Krugman on over this subject. And having read Epstein's book, I now see why Krugman got the better of that exchange. What a missed opportunity. Krugman is such a big target, it's really hard to miss this wide. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:52 PM |
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THE VIRTUAL SCENE OF THE CRIME When is lying and cheating just part of the game -- and when does it become really lying and cheating? And should the lying cheater be taxed on his ill-gotten gains? What if it mostly takes place only in the virtual world of online gaming? "Julian Murdoch" -- a pseudonym for an old and trusted friend -- has the answers (or at least the questions).
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:28 AM |
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THE AP ON THE POVERTY RATE Is this journalism, or is this propaganda? The entire wire story: Poverty Rate Didn't Rise in 2005 For First Time in Five YearsWhy not "the first year since the top in the stock market"? Why the presumption that this has anything whatsoever to do with who is in the White House? The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that 37 million Americans were living under the poverty line last year -- about 12.6% of the population. That is down from 12.7% in 2004, but census officials said the change was statistically insignificant.If the news had been bad -- that is, if the poverty rate had gone up by the same amount, this disclaimer that the change was insignificant would never have been provided. The last decline in the poverty rate was in 2000, during the Clinton administration, when it dropped to 11.3%. (Read the full report.)In case the first reference wasn't clear enough: Bush bad, Clinton good. The median household income -- the point at which half make more and half make less -- was $46,300, a slight increase from 2004.More good news -- and more caution that it is insignificant. But why not reveal the base figure so we can judge the change for ourselves? However, the number of people without health insurance increased to 46.6 million in 2005. About 45.3 million people were without insurance the year before.Here comes the bad news. Complete with base figure. And no mention that this insignificant change is insignificant. The official poverty level is used to decide eligibility for federal health, housing, nutrition and child-care benefits. The poverty rate -- the percentage of people living below the poverty line -- helps shape the debate on the health of the nation's economy. Why this pastiche of negative economic statistics, culled in space and time specifically to be negative? "The economy should be an issue," said Evelyn Brodkin, a political scientist at the University of Chicago. "But so much of that depends on who people blame for their economic situation and who they think can help them. We will learn a lot from the midterms."The "expert" here simply presumes that everything is awful. The only question is whom to blame. The poverty report also comes 10 years after the 1996 welfare overhaul, which required millions of poor single mothers to work and which set limits on how long recipients could get monthly checks.The second of two "experts" chimes in with the confirming view of how awful everything is. And how did the reporter ever forget to mention that welfare reform was signed into law by President Clinton? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:59 AM |
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AIR AMERICA'S AUDIENCE GROWTH IS FLAT Here are the statistics. It's an election year -- why isn't the liberal voice of radio doing better? Maybe Al Franken needs to focus more on diversity. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:44 AM |
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Monday, August 28, 2006 SMITHER PICKS UP STEAM IN THE BLOGOSPHERE We commented last week on the possibility that Bob Smither, a congressional candidate of the Libertarian Party, could get elected in the Texas district in which former House majority leader Tom Delay is not running. Now the blogosphere is starting to pick up on the story. ASecondHandConjecture is posting a Smither resource page, and a list of links to coverage of the campaign. Check it out.And here's Smither's campaign site, and his blog. And of course, a link to make donations. I'm heading to that one right now. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:56 PM |
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IS THE GLOBAL WARMING SCARE A "MARKET FAILURE"? Yes, according to Patrick Michaels' new analysis for Cato -- if you grant that scientists compete in a "market" for public suppport: ...unreported information is usually counter to the bad news. Reports of rapid disintegration of Greenland’s ice ignore the fact that the region was warmer than it is now for several decades in the early 20th century, before humans could have had much influence on climate. Similar stories concerning Antarctica neglect the fact that the net temperature trend in recent decades is negative, or that warming the surrounding ocean can serve only to enhance snowfall, resulting in a gain in ice. Global warming affects hurricanes in both positive and negative fashions, and there is no relationship between the severity of storms and ocean-surface temperature, once a commonly exceeded threshold temperature is reached. Reports of massive species extinction also turn out to be impressively flawed. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:57 PM |
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THESE ARE THE STAKES WE ARE PLAYING FOR Just in case you didn't appreciate what is hanging in the balance. Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link. Update [8/29/2006]... Our "public editor" Irwin Chusid -- who is better known as author of The Mischievous Art of Jim Flora and the upcoming The Curiously Sinister Art of Jim Flora -- contributes this vintage Flora piece to illustrate my otherwise brief and cryptic post. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:46 PM |
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IT'S AMAZING WHAT THEY'LL PUT ON THE FRONT PAGE Russell Roberts does an outstanding job of demolishing a front-page above-the-fold New York Times story today, which attempts to show that ordinary working Americans aren't getting their share of economic growth. A few highlights: the key sentence:The median hourly wage for American workers has declined 2 percent since 2003, after factoring in inflation.That's a very strange sentence for many reasons: Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:14 PM |
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"MODERATE"? The liberal press typically portrays the most partisan liberals as "moderates" -- but this Time story on Nancy Pelosi is an exception: Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the Democrats in the House, portrays herself as a polite, grandmotherly lady...Don't believe it for a second. Would your grandmother ever say, "If people are ripping your face off, you have to rip their face off" (Pelosi's approach to handling attacks from Republicans)? How about "If you take the knife off the table, it's not very frightening anymore" (her explanation for why she won't let voters forget George W. Bush's unpopular Social Security proposal from last year)?Is the Left wing getting so cocky about the November elections that it believes it can actually tell the truth about its candidates? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:24 AM |
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Sunday, August 27, 2006 GOLDWATER WAS A LIBERTARIAN, NOT A CONSERVATIVE Conservative Barry Goldwater's granddaughter has produced a TV documentary for HBO which, according to today's New York Times Magazine, "rehabilitates him as a kind of liberal." It's revealing that the Times regards those who hold non-liberal political views are requiring "rehabilitation." But CC Goldwater gets how it works. "That was part of the reason I thought a film could be done about him," she says, hinting that a documentary that didn't conform the Goldwater legacy to the norms of today's liberal press couldn't get made.Here's how she did it, according to the Times: He emerges as a complex figure — a half-Jewish cowboy from Phoenix who believed the government should stay out of our hair.So that's the definition of "liberal"? Believing that "government should stay out of our hair"? Give me a break. Surely that can't be what was in the mind of Hillary Clinton, who according to the documentary campaigned for Goldwater in 1964. CC says, "Hillary was a Goldwater girl. Isn’t that hysterical? She passed out cookies and lemonade at his campaign functions."Fact: Goldwater was a "liberal" the way Daniel Patrick Moynihan was a conservative -- in both cases, the opposing ideology can latch onto one of those men's libertarian streaks to claim him as an example of the compelling moral power of their own polar positions. Thanks to Jameson Campaigne for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:05 PM |
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