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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Friday, January 06, 2006 IS THIS SUPPOSED TO BE FUNNY? From the email alert sent several times each day by the Wall Street Journal:A federal appeals court upheld the 2004 conviction of homemaking demigod Martha Stewart on charges of lying to the government about a stock sale. Ms. Stewart spent five months in prison and five months under house arrest for the crime, followed by several months of appearing on an unpopular reality TV show. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:46 PM |
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BASEBALL BITCHES 'BOUT BLOOMBERG BUSH BASHING The pseudonymous blogger Donny Baseball nails Bloomberg for bashing the Bush economics team, currently on a much-needed charm offensive designed to give the administration a little of the credit it deserves for our strong economy: The other day I blogged on the inverted yield curve and the irrational confusion of correlation and causality associated with the phenomenon. A Bloomberg TOP story, a news story no less, faults the Bush administration for not confusing the two. The story is titled, "Bush, Who Follows Market Signs, Pays Little Heed to Yield Curve." The clear implication is that Bush chooses to focus only on data that support his view, a theme we've heard before. The story expresses amazement that administration officials are touring the land touting the strong economy (after all, today's Labor Dept. release shows unemployment at 4.9%), when the yield curve has inverted ever so briefly. Bloomberg corrals a number of economists and analysts to bolster this amazement, with the prevailing view that the economy simply must hit the skids soon. No sign of any economist, like these guys, who say differently in the first two-thirds of the article. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:19 PM |
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KEEP THOSE LETTERS COMING IN Congratulations to reader David Lundry who got a letter critical of Paul Krugman published in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, where Krugman's column is syndicated. If the letter sounds familiar, you got a sneak preview of it here first! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:05 PM |
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SOME PROGRESS, I SUPPOSE Too bad about all the new shibboleths, but at least the Fed is questioning some of its old ones. Here's the Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher: The shibboleth known as the Phillips curve posited that beyond a certain point too much employment would ignite demands for greater pay, with eventual inflationary consequences for the entire economy. The econometric calculations behind the Phillips curve and the panoply of other domestic “capacity constraints” and “output gaps” were based on assumptions of a world that in my opinion exists no more.Thanks to our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:01 PM |
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JOKE OF THE DAY Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:55 AM |
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COX-CRAZED AT THE NEW YORK TIMES Ana Marie Cox, formerly the left-leaning blogger Wonkette, is getting the full New York Times promo treatment for her new novel, Dog Days. Tuesday it was a rave book review by Janet Maslin. Yesterday it was a two-fer, with an op-ed by Cox and, separately, a puff-piece (featuring the picture below; note the self-mutilating "cutting" behavior, typical of troubled adolescent girls, going on at right). It mentions that her husband is a writer for Congressional Quarterly (to counter the skank thing). Ironic that, since her new novel is about scandal, that it didn't mention that hubby is a former Times reporter.
Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the links. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:43 AM |
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SAVE US FROM MORE "REFORM"... ...in the wake of the Abramoff scandal. From the Wall Street Journal edit page: One danger now is that, rather than change their own behavior, Republicans will think they can hide behind the political cover of "lobbying reform." While this has various guises, most proposals amount to putting further restrictions not on Congress but on "the right of the people . . . to petition the government," as the Constitution puts it explicitly.Update... A Washington lawyer-lobbyist (who prefers to remain anonymous) has a view:
The excerpt from today’s WSJ in your blog runs counter to the prevailing wind, but is exactly correct. Nothing but a deeper, longer lasting problem will result from a messy, noisy, uncontrollable, disingenuous effort to “reform” lobbying, i.e., punish those who didn’t, and don’t, break the laws. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:13 AM |
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Thursday, January 05, 2006 MINESHAFT GAP Of course the Left blames George W. Bush for the deaths this week of a dozen coal miners. Tom Blumer at BizzyBlog cites the New York Times edit page's usual Bush-bashing innuendo:...the Bush administration’s cramming of important posts in the Department of the Interior with biased operatives from the coal, oil and gas industry is not reassuring about general safety in the mines. Steven Griles, a mining lobbyist before being appointed deputy secretary of the interior, devoted four years to rolling back mine regulations and then went back to lobbying for the industry.Blumer then points out what the Times fails to mention -- that we should be "reassured" by the fact that coal mine deaths in the last four years have been the lowest of the last ten years. Here's the reality you won't see in the Times: Coal mining fatalities Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:06 AM |
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THE ANTI-CAPITALIST CLIMATE IS CHANGING First, it's been executives and media figures willing to speak out against the execrable excesses of Eliot Spitzer -- hopefully blunting his seemingly unstoppable run for New York governor. Now the Securities and Exchange Commission, for three years having tried to keep up with Spitzer as a punisher of big business, comes to its senses and realizes that it has to change its approach for the sake of the shareholders it is supposed to protect. From this morning's Journal: The new rules will help ensure that shareholders don't pay twice for corporate fraud. This investor double-whammy had become more common under recently departed chairman William Donaldson, who favored the media-pleasing sanction of hitting companies with ever-larger fines. The problem with these penalties is that corporate executives pay them with other people's money -- namely, from the business profits that belong to shareholders. So investors suffered both from the damage the original fraud did to their company's share price, and then they were expected to pay again for the SEC punishment. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:53 AM |
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TURNABOUT IS FAIR PLAY As Media Matters sums it up, Bill O'Reilly threatened to "get into" the "lives" of Bill Keller and Frank Rich of The New York Times because they are "the two main culprits" at the newspaper, which "routinely uses personal attacks to hurt people with whom it disagrees."From O'Reilly's January 2 show: [JUAN]WILLIAMS: Well, I couldn't - I was listening to your -- your memo, your "Talking Points," and there you are threatening Bill Keller and Frank Rich. And I thought, what are you going to do to them if they engage in the politics of personal attack against the president?Media Matters reproduces this exchange without comment -- as though it is self-evident that O'Reilly's intentions are unfair and indecent. But why are they? Why can a Times columnist -- himself a public figure -- attack another public figure, and not expect yet another public figure to attack him? And a better question -- why pick on a dodo like Frank Rich when there's Paul Krugman to go after? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:48 AM |
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Wednesday, January 04, 2006 EASY TARGETS Reader Jill Olson just loves to bash the French. And they give her so much to bash. Here, for example, we have Jacques Chirac trance-channeling Jimmy Carter. Sadly, the French don't have a word for "malaise."The French need to stop being negative, says President Jacques Chirac on Wednesday, assuming the role of cheerleader-in-chief after a rotten year in 2005.And here we have the not-quite-solved little matter of those riots... Journalists from the Swiss current affairs magazine L'Hebdo...told swissinfo that the situation was calm – and had been for some weeks. "But the sense of frustration is still here. You have an explosive mix – a lack of work, a concentration of the most fragile members of society. It is very much a ghetto where, in contrast to France's much-vaunted image of integration, the most difficult social problems have been dumped," journalist Alain Rebetez told swissinfo.Update {1/5/2006]... And then there's this (thanks to reader Tom Blumer). Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:19 PM |
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THIS IS RICH... From TimesWatch: Business reporter/columnist Gretchen Morgenson loves corporate scandals, and she rounds up the year’s greatest hits for an illustrated, above-the-fold story, “The Big Winner, Again, Is ‘Scandalot,’” for Sunday’s Business section year-end wrap-up. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:19 PM |
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HEALTHY DOSE OF TRUTH Meet Stuart Browning, a new member of the Krugman Truth Squad. He's done a fine job here on his blog demolishing Paul Krugman's long-running series of columns advocating socialized health care, like they have in Canada. ...its easy to hold down health care costs if you do what Canada does: withhold medical treatment from sick and injured people. The U.S health care system could save billions of dollars if we drastically reduced the number of doctors, hospitals, outpatient clinics, medical devices and diagnostic machines available. If we followed Canada's lead, we would severely limit each surgeon's allotted hours in the operating room so that they couldn't perform too many surgeries. Americans would wait months and years for critical medical tests and treatments - many would suffer greatly, become crippled, addicted to painkillers, go blind or die while waiting - however, the country would spend a lot less money on health care.Keep up the good work, Stuart! Update... Reader Art Patten responds: I'm moved by the ghost of Albert Marshall (or better yet, Carl Menger) to respond to the Stuart Browning quote you posted. If the Canadian government regulated health care markets by pushing on the supply lever, then prices for medical services should rise, all else equal. Taking a closer look at this, you can see how many holes-in-the-dyke a government must poke its fingers into in order to control a market.Update 2... Art reconsiders somewhat: I was thinking in marginal terms rather than aggregate consumption. After reading the rest of Browning's piece, I see that he's referring to Krugman's attack on higher per capita medical spending in the U.S. (bubbles always being in the eye of the beholder). It's an interesting comparison, but Krugman as usual did it no justice. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:20 AM |
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WHAT BUBBLE? The incomparable Jim Glass praises the New York Times for its well-researched story about a potential housing bubble in New York City. The Times's conclusion? No bubble. Not even close. ...the median price per square foot for all Manhattan apartments reached a high point in 1987, at $305 a square foot for co-ops and $413 a square foot for condos...Now will someone please tell Paul Krugman that he should read his own newspaper? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:13 AM |
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ANOTHER ATTACK ON WAL-MART From the "little guys" whom Wal-Mart puts out of business? From the "workers" whom Wal-Mart excploits? No -- it's from the biggest, richest capitalist pigs out there: the banking industry. Seems Wal-Mart wants to go into consumer banking, and the existing banking establishment doesn't want the competition. The banking lobby's absurd claim: that a Wal-Mart will impose risk on the banking system, and destroy competition. From today's Wall Street Journal edit page: Would granting Wal-Mart its ILC [banking license] status impose an unnecessary financial risk on the soundness of the banking system? The Community Bankers lobby warns that "Wal-Mart's entrance into banking would constitute a dangerous over-concentration of economic power that would skew market forces." What clearly undermines this argument is that in every other consumer market that Wal-Mart has entered, from hardware services to selling gas at the pump, the impact of its gaining market share has been to reduce prices, not to raise them. Studies have found, for example, that in neighborhoods where Wal-Mart has entered the grocery business, its prices range from 8% to 27% below those charged at the incumbent grocery chains. Moreover, if there were a repeat of the kind of bank failures we witnessed in the late 1980s, financially sturdy Wal-Mart would be far less susceptible to the risk of closure (and FDIC deposit insurance payments to depositors) than small and less capitalized community banks. It's always possible that Wal-Mart will fall on its face in banking. We suspect, however, that what really spooks the banking industry is the threat of more competition, more convenience and lower prices for financial services. But that should be welcome news to members of Congress and the regulators at the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC if they truly care about the welfare of the banking consumer. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:07 AM |
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Tuesday, January 03, 2006 JOKE OF THE DAYPosted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:44 PM |
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FUNDAMENTALISM? Reader Dave Lundry has a question for the professor: Did you catch this in Paul Krugman’s latest? Writing about the "housing bubble," Krugman said: “In the Zoned Zone [the coasts], by contrast, buildable lots are scarce, and house prices mainly reflect the price of those lots rather than the cost of construction. As a result, house prices in the Zoned Zone are much less tied down by economic fundamentals than prices in Flatland.” Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:51 PM |
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DOUBLE STANDARD (HATE AMERICA FIRST) Reader Jon Redden points out: Funny how when US GDP figures come out, there is always a mention of the sluggish job market or high energy prices. Words like "mild", "slight" and "modest" riddle the page of US GDP numbers, which for the last couple years have been running at consistently high levels above 3% annualized.Update... our correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" clarifies: The 0.7% figure for France is unannualized third quarter growth. Year over year growth was 1.8%. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:18 AM |
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INTERESTING PAPER Imagining Wall Street, by Larry E. Ribstein of the University of Illinois College of Law (July 2005, U Illinois Law & Economics Research Paper No. LE05-017): Abstract:I love many things that Oliver Stone has done, as I do many things Rudy Giuliani has done -- but their respective roles in wrecking the prosperity of the 1980s lives in infamy. Thanks to Chris Masse for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:13 AM |
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THESE WOULD MAKE A (GENERALLY) HAPPY NEW YEAR Except for some crap about carbon taxes to fight global warming, here's Greg Mankiw's excellent list of New Year's resolutions for politicians contemplating economic policy. My favorite: This year I will be modest about what government can do. I know that economic prosperity comes not from government programs but from entrepreneurial inspiration. Adam Smith was right when he said, "Little else is required to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice." As a government official, I am not going to promise more than I can deliver. I am going to focus my attention on these three goals -- peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice -- and I am going to trust the creativity of the American people to do the rest. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:08 AM |
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THE "PUBLIC EDITOR" GETS STONEWALLED Now he knows what it feels like to be a New York Times reader. ...I have had unusual difficulty getting a better explanation for readers, despite the paper's repeated pledges of greater transparency. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:57 AM |
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DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH ON THIS ONE From reader Jeffrey Jabobson to Paul Krugman:I have a question about a statement you have repeated, in various forms, in eight of your columns between April 25 and December 30. In late April 2005, the Gallup organization released poll results showing that exactly 50% of those polls answered "yes" to the question "Do you think the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, or not?" The poll had a margin of error of +/- three percent. Earlier in April, a similar poll had only 48% of respondents answering "yes" to the same question. According to Gallup, the uptick in those numbers over time came almost exclusively from registered Democrats, and was tied to a general decline in President Bush's approval ratings among Democrats. Since April, Gallup has asked the same question several more times. The result never reached above 53%. You seem to have referred to this poll in eight columns dated from April 25 through December 30. In your first two references, on April 25 and June 24, 2005, you noted the poll's 50-50 result on this question. As time went on, however, your characterizations became stronger. On July 1 and August 1, you said that a "majority of Americans" believed the Bush Administration deliberately misled the country. On August 21, you said that "strong majorities" held this view. In September 23 and November 4, you returned to the formulation "majority of Americans," but on December 30, you shifted all the way to saying that "most Americans" believe this. I will grant you that "50% plus 1" constitutes a majority. But can you please direct me to the sources from which you derived your statements on August 21 and December 30 that "strong majorities" and/or "most Americans" share your views? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:37 AM |
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TIMESSELECT SELECTS AGAINST ONLINE READERS From our friend Dave Duval: Maybe 6 times over the past several weeks have I tried to sign up for my "free" NY Times Select (since I'm a daily print subscriber). Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:37 AM |
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HOW BUSINESS NEWS IS MADE Hint: it's the same way as sausages. Thanks to Chris Masse for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:30 AM |
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IT'LL GO UP, UNLESS IT DOESN'T CJR Daily continues to skewer the wishy-washy certitudes of the popular business press: BusinessWeek's advice for 2006 is as follows: Invest in the stock market and "you have a good shot of earning total returns of 9 percent to 10 percent." Why is this so? Because (this will flabbergast you) ... "the bulls" are optimistic. Unlike those grumpy bears, these bulls say that the economy will grow "at a robust clip," "corporate profits are rising," the "Fed's long series of interest rate hikes is over" and oil prices "will ebb."Thanks to correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:24 AM |
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Monday, January 02, 2006 THE TIMES LIES ABOUT NIGER! Well, okay, it's really about Nigeria.An article Jan. 1, about the struggle by impoverished communities in the Niger delta to reap any benefits from the oil boom misstated the amount of money the oil industry generates for Nigeria. It is 50 cents each day for each of the country's 130 million people, not 50 cents per capita over all in 2004. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:01 AM |
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