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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Saturday, October 22, 2005 MIERS CONTRACTS ON TRADESPORTS Mid-day yesterday the futures contracts at Tradesports on whether Harriet Miers will be confirmed as a SCOTUS justice dropped suddenly, from about 65% to about 37% -- and as of this writing, it has fallen below 30%.
Reader Eddy Elfenbein (of the Crossing Wall Street blog) points out, though, that the separate contracts on Miers getting at least 50 affirmative votes in the Senate remains at about 68%. Isn't that an arbitrage? How can the chances be twice as great that she will win enough votes to be approved than the chances that she will be approved at all? Turns out the answer is that the vote-tally contracts are operative only if the nomination comes to a vote in the first place. So Elfenbein makes the smart observation that there’s an implied withdrawal contract: 1-(30%/68%)= 55.8%. In other words, the two contracts together are saying that there's a 55.8% chance that the Miers nomination won't make it to the Senate floor. Update... [10/23/2005] David Pennock, the brain behind the Yahoo! Tech Buzz game writes: I think the explanation here makes sense. The Miers-over-50 contract is actually a *conditional* security, so the probability should be read as "probability that Miers gets over 50 votes given that her nomination comes to a vote." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:35 AM | link
Friday, October 21, 2005 THAT UNION-LOVING TIMES The New York Times editorial page loves unions. But it's a case of "not in my back yard" when it comes to the Times-owned Boston Globe, which has had to lay off union workers because of the Times Company's financial difficulties. A reader reports:One of my friends is the union president at the Globe. Management pulled him into a meeting just before they announced the layoffs. He wasn't able to respond for about an hour because he was stuck in the meeting and he had no idea that they announced the layoffs until he was swamped by the union members when he got out of the meeting. Basically, management sandbagged him so he couldn't respond to the union members in a timely fashion. Boy, were the union members pissed. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:11 PM | link
This is not:
Why is that correction not a correction? Because it has never been appended to the Times' online archive editions of the three columns by Paul Krugman in which the error was either made or imperfectly corrected -- those of August 19, August 22, and August 26. Go to any of those columns and you'll see statements to the effect that the Miami Herald consortium showed Al Gore winning under two out of three methodologies, not two out of four. (The history of this error and its partial correction can be reviewed here.) The correction printed above appeared in an October 2 column by Gail Collins, the Times editorial page editor. That column was titled: "A Letter From the Editor: It All Goes on the Permanent Record." In it, Collins wrote:
Here we have a correction that has been published in the pages of the New York Times -- the facts are not in dispute. We have an editor who agrees that the archives must reflect correction -- that is not in dispute. Yet the archives remain uncorrected, almost three weeks after Collins' column ran. I have sent an email about this to New York Times "public editor" Barney Calame about this every day since Collins' column ran. For the first couple days I got a blow-off one liner saying "Thank you for your e-mail." Nothing more. And now I don't even get that.
Well, Barney, let's hear you answer your own question. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:31 AM | link
THE FLU SPREADS Layoff flu at the New York Times spreads to Boston: The New York Times Co. said yesterday that its third-quarter earnings fell more than half from the comparable quarter last year, days after the Times-owned Boston Globe told employees that the paper's national staff is being trimmed to save money. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:02 AM | link
Thursday, October 20, 2005 JUST BECAUSE IT'S EXPENSIVE DOESN'T MEAN IT'S VALUABLE A "blogger" at the Washington Post finds a Maureen Dowd column to be "one of the most precious commodities in the current information marketplace." Thanks to reader James Bennett for the link!Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:23 PM | link
SPEAK FOR YOURSELF! Paul Krugman to an audience of university economics students: the study of economics is "guesswork about things we know nothing [about]." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:45 PM | link
CONSERVATIVES DUKE IT OUT ON SPENDING Last week I blogged about our friend Brian Reidl's report for the Heritage Foundation that specifically quantifies the true horror of present runaway government spending. Now Heritage has received a response from the office of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Frist's budget guru Bill Hoagland makes some good points:
Reidl shoots back, of course, and scores some good points as well.
Isn't it impressive that conservatives can publicly disagree with each other like this? During the debate about Social Security reform, was there any debate whatsoever among liberals? Update... reader Brian Hart takes the gloves off: I could care less what federal expenses are as a percentage of GDP. That is a completely irrelevant measure. The point of both taxes and government spending is to provide money for needed government services. Therefore, until proven otherwise, tax revenue and spending growth equaling the growth of the population and the growth of inflation should be the only goal of the government. I acknowledge there may be times where there are special needs that require more money, but the burden of proof is on the government to prove it. It is not the responsibility of the government to automatically grow itself at the same pace as the economy. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:14 AM | link
Wednesday, October 19, 2005 JOKE OF THE DAYPosted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:00 AM | link
WELL, WHAT DO YOU KNOW... You'd think this would be good news. You'd think the New York Times would be delighted to report that "The Red Cross and federal government said Tuesday that they had been significantly overreporting the number of Hurricane Katrina evacuees in hotels. Instead of 600,000 people, 200,000 remain in hotels, the charity said." But no. The real story, for the Times, is not the alleviation of human suffering involved, but (of course) the incompetence of the Bush administration. Complete with quotes from Democrats: ...the count shows the lack of knowledge that FEMA has about the relocations and its limited oversight over the money it is committed to spend on such housing.What about the incompetence of the mainstream media, for all its exaggerated reporting about the deaths, crime and dislocations arising form the storm? Not a word. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:51 AM | link
Monday, October 17, 2005 UNSUPPORTED INDEED The New York Times sees public universities going down the drain for lack of, yes, tax money (one wonders how many Times executives attended such institutions...)."Taxpayer support for public universities, measured per student, has plunged more precipitously since 2001 than at any time in two decades..."and "The share of all public universities' revenues deriving from state and local taxes declined to 64 percent in 2004 from 74 percent in 1991."Reader Gordon Haave notes, This story reflects the fundamental problem with reporting in the main stream media. Now, it's possible that the reporter simply doesn't understand statistics. The share of public universities; revenues deriving from state and local taxes declining is not the same thing as taxpayer support for public universities, measured per student, declining. Theoretically, it is possible that taxpayer support for public universities, per student, has doubled, but that during the same time frame, universities have gone out and raised money privately by even more. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:30 AM | link
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