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Saturday, October 22, 2005

MIERS CONTRACTS ON TRADESPORTS   Mid-day yesterday the futures contracts at Tradesports on whether Harriet Miers will be confirmed as a SCOTUS justice dropped suddenly, from about 65% to about 37% -- and as of this writing, it has fallen below 30%.

Reader Eddy Elfenbein (of the Crossing Wall Street blog) points out, though, that the separate contracts on Miers getting at least 50 affirmative votes in the Senate remains at about 68%. Isn't that an arbitrage? How can the chances be twice as great that she will win enough votes to be approved than the chances that she will be approved at all? Turns out the answer is that the vote-tally contracts are operative only if the nomination comes to a vote in the first place. So Elfenbein makes the smart observation that there’s an implied withdrawal contract: 1-(30%/68%)= 55.8%. In other words, the two contracts together are saying that there's a 55.8% chance that the Miers nomination won't make it to the Senate floor.

Update... [10/23/2005] David Pennock, the brain behind the Yahoo! Tech Buzz game writes:

I think the explanation here makes sense. The Miers-over-50 contract is actually a *conditional* security, so the probability should be read as "probability that Miers gets over 50 votes given that her nomination comes to a vote."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:35 AM | link   


Friday, October 21, 2005

THAT UNION-LOVING TIMES   The New York Times editorial page loves unions. But it's a case of "not in my back yard" when it comes to the Times-owned Boston Globe, which has had to lay off union workers because of the Times Company's financial difficulties. A reader reports:
One of my friends is the union president at the Globe. Management pulled him into a meeting just before they announced the layoffs. He wasn't able to respond for about an hour because he was stuck in the meeting and he had no idea that they announced the layoffs until he was swamped by the union members when he got out of the meeting. Basically, management sandbagged him so he couldn't respond to the union members in a timely fashion. Boy, were the union members pissed.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:11 PM | link   

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KRUGMAN STILL UNCORRECTED ON FLORIDA 2000  
This is a correction in the New York Times:

An article on Sept. 30 about hunting wild pigs in California referred incorrectly to the javelina, a piglike animal found wild in other parts of the United States. It is not considered a pig. (The javelina belongs to a species of the Tayassuidae family; hogs and pigs are species of the Suidae family.)

This is not:

CORRECTION

In describing the results of the ballot study by the group led by The Miami Herald in his column of Aug. 26, Paul Krugman relied on the Herald report, which listed only three hypothetical statewide recounts, two of which went to Al Gore. There was, however, a fourth recount, which would have gone to George W. Bush. In this case, the two stricter-standard recounts went to Mr. Bush. A later study, by a group that included The New York Times, used two methods to count ballots: relying on the judgment of a majority of those examining each ballot, or requiring unanimity. Mr. Gore lost one hypothetical recount on the unanimity basis.

Why is that correction not a correction? Because it has never been appended to the Times' online archive editions of the three columns by Paul Krugman in which the error was either made or imperfectly corrected -- those of August 19, August 22, and August 26. Go to any of those columns and you'll see statements to the effect that the Miami Herald consortium showed Al Gore winning under two out of three methodologies, not two out of four. (The history of this error and its partial correction can be reviewed here.)

The correction printed above appeared in an October 2 column by Gail Collins, the Times editorial page editor. That column was titled: "A Letter From the Editor: It All Goes on the Permanent Record." In it, Collins wrote:

The most important motive for correcting the minor glitches is history. These days, everything we publish is stored not only in the Times archives and commercially available archives, but in the files of an army of search engines. We don't want a college student of 2050 to come up with the wrong year for James Madison's death because of our error - particularly not when we have the means to amend the record.

Here we have a correction that has been published in the pages of the New York Times -- the facts are not in dispute. We have an editor who agrees that the archives must reflect correction -- that is not in dispute.

Yet the archives remain uncorrected, almost three weeks after Collins' column ran. I have sent an email about this to New York Times "public editor" Barney Calame about this every day since Collins' column ran. For the first couple days I got a blow-off one liner saying "Thank you for your e-mail." Nothing more. And now I don't even get that.

As Calame himself asked

Does a corrections policy not enforced damage The Times's credibility more than having no policy at all?

Well, Barney, let's hear you answer your own question.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:31 AM | link   

THE FLU SPREADS   Layoff flu at the New York Times spreads to Boston:
The New York Times Co. said yesterday that its third-quarter earnings fell more than half from the comparable quarter last year, days after the Times-owned Boston Globe told employees that the paper's national staff is being trimmed to save money.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:02 AM | link   


Thursday, October 20, 2005

JUST BECAUSE IT'S EXPENSIVE DOESN'T MEAN IT'S VALUABLE   A "blogger" at the Washington Post finds a Maureen Dowd column to be "one of the most precious commodities in the current information marketplace." Thanks to reader James Bennett for the link!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:23 PM | link   

SPEAK FOR YOURSELF!   Paul Krugman to an audience of university economics students: the study of economics is "guesswork about things we know nothing [about]."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:45 PM | link   

CONSERVATIVES DUKE IT OUT ON SPENDING   Last week I blogged about our friend Brian Reidl's report for the Heritage Foundation that specifically quantifies the true horror of present runaway government spending. Now Heritage has received a response from the office of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Frist's budget guru Bill Hoagland makes some good points:

...no other industrial nation’s centralized government spends less than the United States measured as a share of their economy.

Federal spending as a share of our economy in 2005 represents about 20.2 percent. ...For the decade of the 1980's, federal spending averaged 22.2 percent of GDP – a whole 2 percentage points higher than last year...

For the decade of the 1990's – the Berlin Wall falls, the economy expands – and guess what? Federal spending as a share of an expanding economy averaged 20.7 percent. A whole half a percentage point higher than last year...

When we turned into the new century, pre-September 11, 2001 spending averaged a historic low of 18.5 percent. It has been the increases in federal spending for the Global War on Terrorism that has been the most significant driver these last 5 years, not highway bills, not energy bills, nor a Medicare drug bill... As a share of GDP, defense spending has increased from 3.0 percent in 2000 to 4.0 percent last year. In other words, if it were not for this 1 percentage point increase in funding for our national security between 2000 and last year, federal spending overall would be a remarkable 19.2 percent, well below the previous two decades.

Reidl shoots back, of course, and scores some good points as well.

This point seems to recommend excluding the costs of the war on terrorism from spending analyses. But this spending did not occur in a vacuum. During World War II, lawmakers reprioritized their budgets and cut non-war spending in half—even eliminating many of President Roosevelt’s New Deal programs. During the Korean War, Congress cut one-fourth of all non-war spending in just one year... Rather than set priorities and offset important wartime spending, today’s lawmakers simply ask budget watchdogs to pretend that such spending is not there. If only taxpayers could also pretend that the coming IRS bills for such spending are not there either...

President Reagan inherited a bloated federal government that spent 21.7 percent of GDP, and he reduced that burden to 21.2 percent—even while fighting the Cold War and working with an often-Democratic Congress that regularly sought to increase spending further. By comparison, lawmakers in early 2001 inherited a leaner budget that, as a result of difficult decisions made by previous Congresses, had been pared down to 18.4 percent of GDP, and they promptly responded with across-the-board spending hikes that pushed spending all the way back to 20.2 percent of GDP by 2005.

Isn't it impressive that conservatives can publicly disagree with each other like this? During the debate about Social Security reform, was there any debate whatsoever among liberals?

Update... reader Brian Hart takes the gloves off:

I could care less what federal expenses are as a percentage of GDP. That is a completely irrelevant measure. The point of both taxes and government spending is to provide money for needed government services. Therefore, until proven otherwise, tax revenue and spending growth equaling the growth of the population and the growth of inflation should be the only goal of the government. I acknowledge there may be times where there are special needs that require more money, but the burden of proof is on the government to prove it. It is not the responsibility of the government to automatically grow itself at the same pace as the economy.

Based on that meaningful measure, through 2004, the government has grown 33% since 1980 and nearly 20% since Bush took office. So on a real basis, the government has grown 1/3 since 1980 and nearly 1/5 since 2001. It is an embarrasment that the "Budget Guru" for the Republican Majority Leader doesn't understand this. As Reidl pointed out, Hoagland's rebuttal doesn't withstand the slightest scrutiny.

Furthermore, Hoagland is inadvertantly making the Democrats arguments on taxation for them. Since 1980, as the top tax rate has been reduced from 70% to 35%, taxes as a percentage of GDP has gone down. That is a good thing and not surprisingly taxes as a percentage of the population on a real basis have increased over 20%. That is what matters. However, Hoagland doesn't get this. Unfortunately, as Republicans leaders are apt to do, he is providing the Democrats the club for them to beat him over the head with.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:14 AM | link   


Wednesday, October 19, 2005

JOKE OF THE DAY  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:00 AM | link   

WELL, WHAT DO YOU KNOW...   You'd think this would be good news. You'd think the New York Times would be delighted to report that "The Red Cross and federal government said Tuesday that they had been significantly overreporting the number of Hurricane Katrina evacuees in hotels. Instead of 600,000 people, 200,000 remain in hotels, the charity said." But no. The real story, for the Times, is not the alleviation of human suffering involved, but (of course) the incompetence of the Bush administration. Complete with quotes from Democrats:
...the count shows the lack of knowledge that FEMA has about the relocations and its limited oversight over the money it is committed to spend on such housing.

"FEMA still does not know any more about what it was doing last week than it was a month ago," Representative David R. Obey of Wisconsin, the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said. "It is still, as far as I am concerned, an incompetent agency."

What about the incompetence of the mainstream media, for all its exaggerated reporting about the deaths, crime and dislocations arising form the storm? Not a word.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:51 AM | link   


Monday, October 17, 2005

UNSUPPORTED INDEED   The New York Times sees public universities going down the drain for lack of, yes, tax money (one wonders how many Times executives attended such institutions...).
"Taxpayer support for public universities, measured per student, has plunged more precipitously since 2001 than at any time in two decades..."
and
"The share of all public universities' revenues deriving from state and local taxes declined to 64 percent in 2004 from 74 percent in 1991."
Reader Gordon Haave notes,
This story reflects the fundamental problem with reporting in the main stream media. Now, it's possible that the reporter simply doesn't understand statistics. The share of public universities; revenues deriving from state and local taxes declining is not the same thing as taxpayer support for public universities, measured per student, declining. Theoretically, it is possible that taxpayer support for public universities, per student, has doubled, but that during the same time frame, universities have gone out and raised money privately by even more.

More likely, however, the problem with this story is the way in which news is gathered and reported in the main stream media. Does anyone really think that the reporter or an editor thought "Gee, let's see what's going on with taxpayer support at public universities?". Of course not. More likely, an editor received a press release complaining about "declining taxpayer support". This news release probably contained all the figures needed by the reporter to write this story. Now, the Times, in it's natural bias in support of public universities, didn't think to question the motvation of the universities, and thus dig deeper into the story. Clearly, public universities have an incentive to measure taxpayer support by the faulty statistic of the percentage of all public universities revenues deriving from state and local taxes, as using that statistic as a benchmark means that every private dollar raised by a university implies an obligation on the government to pony up matching funds.

So, the Times, ignoring the bias of the Universities and their leaders, coupled perhaps with a ignorance of basic statistics by the reporter and the editors, puts out a misleading story. One that will never be corrected.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:30 AM | link   


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