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Saturday, March 05, 2005

WHO'S "RICH," ANYWAY?   To a liberal, it's anyone who has more money than him. So it's not much of a stretch to Perry Eidelbus's explanation of Paul Krugman's preference for tax policy.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:15 PM | link  

CAN'T WE JUST BE FRIENDS?   Democrat and Clinton insider Sam Beard with a much-needed cry for bipartisanship and objectivity on Social Security reform:

It's important to remember that President Bill Clinton wanted Social Security reform and personal retirement accounts to be part of his legacy. As head of the nonprofit Economic Security 2000, I worked in 1998 with Erskine Bowles, the president's chief of staff, on a Social Security reform plan that included personal accounts. At the end of that year, Clinton called us to the White House and told us to be prepared for bold action. Unfortunately, the impeachment proceedings that occurred the following year derailed the initiative.

In addition to him, other leading Democrats have supported adding personal savings accounts to Social Security, including the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York. Today, President Bush is proposing the same kinds of reforms, seeking to protect benefits for those who are already retired or near retirement while providing the option of voluntary accounts for younger workers.

...The reforms considered by Clinton and Bush both take aim at the same two retirement issues: the growing imbalance in the Social Security program and the fact that nearly two-thirds of Americans have no or limited savings.

...It's time to ratchet back the rhetoric and for both parties to begin discussions about real bipartisan reforms to Social Security.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:53 PM | link  

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY, PAUL   It's coming on the second anniversary of Paul Krugman's disastrously wrong forecast for rising interest rates, and Tom Maguire is the first with the goods. Read the whole sorry story here. But don't be too surprised. As Krugman himself admitted to Tim Russert on national television under some rather severe pressure from Bill O'Reilly:
"Compare me... compare me, uh, with anyone else, and I think you'll see that my forecasting record is not great."

Thanks to reader Irwin Chusid for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:32 PM | link  


Friday, March 04, 2005

CATO'S WHOLE LETTER   I asked Jamie Dettmer of the Cato Institute if they could provide the original text of their letter appearing in today's New York Times. Here's their response:

Yes, of course they edited it but in the end I gave my approval or nothing would have been in. Here is the original:

Dear Sir,

How curious it is that the New York Times continues to run serial rants replete with inaccuracies and invective by Paul Krugman against Social Security reform and those who advocate individual accounts while only rarely allowing reformers a say on the op-ed page. What is the New York Times afraid of – a debate?

The Cato Institute certainly isn’t. That is why Michael Tanner, the director of the institute’s Project on Social Security Choice, accepted with alacrity the offer to debate Mr. Krugman on March 15 at an event hosted by the New York Society for Ethical Culture.

There Mr. Tanner will explain why Mr. Krugman is talking through his hat when he claims that Cato is unprepared to explain transition costs or how the reformed system would work. Mr. Krugman has need of the lesson because apparently he has neglected to read more than 20 years of detailed scholarship on the subject undertaken by Cato scholars.

I suppose Mr. Krugman’s neglect is hardly surprising since he seems oblivious of what is reported in the news pages of his own newspaper

The merits of individual accounts are indisputable and the intellectual argument for reform is compelling. That is unless, of course, you agree with Mr. Krugman that it is sensible to push payroll taxes ever higher, deprive Americans of better returns on their retirement savings and refuse to accept the principle that people have the right of ownership over what they pay into Social Security.

In his rant published on February 25 he sought to link Cato to a bigoted commercial put out by the USA Next group that in his words, accuses AARP, the anti-reform seniors organization, of being an “anti-solider, pro-gay marriage leftist front.” The day before Mr. Krugman’s column ran Mr. Tanner was quoted in the New York Times condemning the ad.

Social Security reform with individual accounts has great appeal for minorities and gays and women – indeed for all Americans. The debate over Social Security choice presents a great opportunity for political bridge-building and for gays and ethnic minorities to feel included in the national discussion. Those who seek to engage in the destructive politics of division, including Mr. Krugman, are doing a great disservice to the nation.

Jamie Dettmer
Director of Communications
Cato Institute
Washington DC.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:05 PM | link  

TAKE A COMEDY BREAK   The only redeeming feature of  the ad hominem attacks against Social Security reformers -- like this one -- is that they are so pathetically easily countered. Follow the links and have a good laugh at the expense of a leftist apparatchik.

Update... Reader Keith Mitchell chimes in:

Cheater...

You should have posted the Cato Institute's home page at http://www.cato.org/.

And yes, it takes exactly 2 clicks for those able to read English to get to 18 articles/position papers dealing with Transition Financing. One click on that link over on the left that says "Reforming Social Security" under HOT TOPICS. Then another click on "Transition Financing" under BROWSE BY TOPIC.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:59 AM | link  

DEAR PAUL  

I got copied on this very interesting letter from Joseph Mann:

Dear Mr. Krugman,

I am the sole owner and manager of a 70-plus-year-old life insurance company that specializes in annuities. I’m looking for others to get in on the ground floor of this fantastic initial public offering and I’m starting with you since you might just help me spread the word; you’re one of the best salesman I know.

A very general business overview:

I offer annuities to my clients that begin payouts once they reach their mid sixties as long as they have made 10 years worth of premium payments before reaching the ‘payout’ age. The 10 years premium payments can be made during any time span and do not have to be made in consecutive years.

The law is on my side and requires that everyone becomes a client, so marketing and revenue do not seem to be an issue…more on this later. Clients that have not reached the ‘magical age’ will be sending me premium payments that are used to payout to my current clients that have reached the ‘magical age’. In fact, the premiums that I collect exceed the amount that I have to pay out to my clients and the operating costs of my business – let’s call this the surplus.

Since I am the lone shareholder I have no need to payout dividends or concern myself with share price appreciation. Besides, that’s not my goal or ambition. Here’s what I do do though…my company ‘special issues’ bonds and does not offer them for sale to anyone except me. So, my company uses the surplus money collected from client premiums (after paying current beneficiaries and operating costs) and buys the bonds that my very own company ‘special issued’. Neat trick, huh? Next, I take the now ‘freed-up’ money and I just simply give it away to charity. That’s right; just give it away! It feels so good to give in fact that I have no need to be concerned with share price appreciation because my reward comes from knowing that I will be liked. This charitable giving generates great PR for me and takes care of the marketing. Amazingly, the face value of the bonds that I ‘special issue’ correspond almost identically to the value of the premium surplus amount. These bonds do pay interest but as long as the premiums exceed the benefits then I’m cool. And, as an added bonus, I can raise the premiums any time I want to and, since it’s compulsory, the clients will pay it.

A little more general background:

- Like I’ve stated, the company has been in business over seventy years and I’m the fourth-generation owner.

- My company’s actuaries have made plenty of recommendations over the years regarding the mortality tables and disturbing demographic trends but I just generally ignore what they’re telling me. It’s all about customer service here!

- Over the years the company has increased the required percentage amount of the premium that must be contributed – the increase has been well over 1000%. The premium that the client pays depends on the amount of income that they make. It’s a little more complicated than that though but perhaps you’ve seen it…I know that you are a client of mine.

- The benefit payments to my ‘magical-aged’ clients are indexed to wage growth and not to consumer prices growth. Every time I consider changing that, they gnash their teeth and wail. I cannot afford to have my ‘magical-aged’ clients mad at me…it’s all about customer service.

So, are you interested in becoming part owner? If you don’t mind I’d rather not show you any of my financial reports; can’t you just ‘trust’ me on this one?

How many shares should I pencil you in for, Paul?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:37 AM | link  

KRUGMAN UPSTAGED BY BONO   Harvard economist Richard Parker -- author of a new biography of Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith -- doesn't think the current crop of economists can fill Galbraith's shoes:
Parker had to think hard when asked if there was anyone on the contemporary scene capable of carrying on Galbraith's legacy.

He rattled off the names of several well-known economists — Paul Krugman, who writes for the New York Times; Jeffrey Sachs, who heads the United Nations' Millennium Project, and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz — but admitted that none has Galbraith's stature or vision.

Then he settled on an unlikely candidate. "You know, I think the cultural equivalent today would be (Irish rock star) Bono," he said. "When I look at the causes a 30-year-old Galbraith would be drawn to today, he is the one speaking out."

Parker is not sure his buttoned-down students at Harvard are listening.

Not surprising.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:08 AM | link  

JOKE OF THE DAY  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:07 AM | link  

CATO'S LETTER (TO THE TIMES)   The Cato Institute, in a letter to the New York Times in today's edition, has come up with a polite way of calling Paul Krugman the liar that he is. In Krugman's February 25 column he wrote:

The Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation have spent decades campaigning for privatization. Yet they weren't ready to answer even the most obvious questions about how it would work - like how benefits could be maintained for older Americans without a dangerous increase in debt.

Here's Cato's response:

To the Editor:

Paul Krugman is talking through his hat when he claims that the Cato Institute is unprepared to explain Social Security transition costs or how the reformed system would work ("Kansas on My Mind," column, Feb. 25). Hasn't he read more than 20 years of detailed scholarship on the subject undertaken by Cato scholars?

The merits of individual accounts are indisputable, and the intellectual argument for reform is compelling. That is unless, of course, you agree with Mr. Krugman that it is sensible to push payroll taxes ever higher, deprive Americans of better returns on their retirement savings and refuse to accept the principle that people have the right of ownership over what they pay into Social Security.

Jamie Dettmer
Washington, Feb. 25, 2005
The writer is director of communications, Cato Institute.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:07 AM | link  


Thursday, March 03, 2005

THE EIDELBLOG IS BORN   Many of you will remember the name of Perry Eidelbus as a frequent contributor of links and commentary on this blog. I'm delighted to announce that Perry has started his own blog -- called, naturally enough, Eidelblog. Check it out, and give Perry some well-deserved traffic!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:04 PM | link  

FRIST SPEAKS!   The press is eager to exaggerate every little sign of weakness in the GOP on Social Security reform. Lets' see if the New York Times and the Washington Post even cover this statement today by Senate majority leader Bill Frist:

March 3rd, 2005 - WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, M.D. (R-TN) today made the following statement on the Senate floor regarding Social Security reform:

"Social Security is a critically important program which serves as the cornerstone of support for senior citizens. But it now faces challenges that threaten its long-term stability and well-being. The facts are crystal clear. They're grounded in demographics that were defined two generations ago, and those demographics can't be changed.

"In three years the baby boomers arrive on the Social Security rolls. That will begin a 30 year period where we're going to have a doubling of the number of seniors compared to what it is today – up to 77 million Americans who will begin to collect Social Security benefits.

"Meanwhile, there are fewer and fewer workers paying into the system, a fact that is also driven by demographics. Forty years ago we had 16 people paying in for every retiree. Today, we have three people paying in for every retiree. Those are the facts, and the facts simply cannot be changed.

"This President and this Congress are facing this challenge and the challenge is to fix Social Security for seniors, for near retirees, and for the next generation. We need to do it this year. Not next year, but this year.

"Our majority has worked aggressively and thoroughly to fully understand the nature of the problem. We've worked hard to begin to engage the American people in a dialogue about the program. We've had town meetings all across the country. We talk about social security in our conferences. We are interacting with administration officials. We have interacted with leading experts on the Social Security system. And our members are hard at work to fix the underlying problems at the heart of the challenge in this 70 year old program.

"Mr. President, my colleagues and the President agree that retirees and near-retirees will not see benefit changes.

"We also agree that we must harness the power of the market and give younger Americans the choice of personal retirement accounts whose rate of growth, and ultimately rate of benefits, will grow faster than traditional Social Security.

"And finally, we all agree that all ideas should be on the table. It is too early for people to be drawing rigid lines in the sand and, thus, we would encourage people to continue the discussion, the debate, and the understanding of the issue and not put it off to the future.

"For those who insist there is no problem, I simply say, look at the facts. And as people increasingly look at the facts, and we're seeing the response around the country, people see that the problem is real, that it is significant, and that it is growing.

"For those who say we don't need to take action, if you have a problem that's growing, it's much easier to act now to cure the problem than it is to have radical surgery in the future. We need to explore the solutions to the problem and in a free and public debate. And we need to put those ideas to a vote. Ultimately, the people must judge.

"I say all of this to let the people know that our majority is hard at work every day on this vital issue. We are in ongoing consultation with the administration and with the House of Representatives. And we will continue to bring before the Senate meaningful solutions that will make a difference in the lives of our seniors.

"The assurances of Social Security should be guaranteed. To be able to guarantee those assurances, we must diagnose the problem and then we must act. We must govern with meaningful solutions, and that is exactly what this Congress will do.

"Mr. President, I yield the floor."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:40 PM | link  

JOKE OF THE DAY  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:46 AM | link  

THE SAD TRUTH ABOUT MOVEON.ORG   From Rolling Stone:
Like so many other Internet start-ups, MoveOn has raised -- and burned through -- tens of millions of dollars, innovating without producing many concrete results. Any reasonable analysis shows its stock may be dangerously overvalued. Those banking on MoveOn had better hope it is more Google than Pets.com. Because should the group flame out, the Democrats could be in for a fall of Nasdaq proportions.
Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:13 AM | link  


Wednesday, March 02, 2005

THE LEFT ATTACKS TIERNEY   The left begins its campaign to discredit the new conservative/libertarian New York Times op-ed columnist John Tierney before he even writes his first column. Here's Zachary Roth on CJR Daily griping because Tierney didn't bow to pressures from environmental groups and recant his New York Times Magazine story on the futility of recyling:
It's in the nature of an opinion writer to advance arguments, and sometimes to generate opposition. But a good opinion writer deals with the arguments of those with whom he disagrees fully and fairly, then goes on to explain the merits of his position. Tierney's record, at least when he addresses major national policy issues -- which are what, presumably, he'd be focusing on for the Times op-ed page -- suggests a different modus operandi.

The Times famously gives its op-ed columnists a large degree of leeway. That's why the job requires someone who has demonstrated a willingness to deal genuinely with opponents' arguments. Tierney is an innovative and an engaging writer, but that sort of honest deliberation doesn't appear to be his strong suit.

Has Roth every once ever complained -- even mildly complained -- no, ever even mentioned! -- the way Paul Krugman deals "fully and fairly" with his critics -- by libeling them on national television?

Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:11 PM | link  

WORSE THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE   Great comment from reader Mike Snell on the payroll tax that (sort of) supports Social Security:
Saw your piece on raising the wage cap but it is really much worse than you imagine.

The Social Security tax rate today is double what it was 35 years ago, but the wage base (cap) is ten times what it was then.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:35 PM | link  

AN INDEPENDENT VOICE FOR REFORM   So there are no "independent" economists on cable TV speaking out for Social Security reform? That's what Media Matters claims. How about professor Jeremey Siegel of the Wharton School? I was just on CNBC's Kudlow & Company with him, and I've simply never heard a more strongly worded endorsement for Social Security reform with personal accounts than I heard from Siegel.

By the way, ultra-liberal blogger Atrios (who is on Media Matters' payroll) sent me an email last week to tell me that Media Matters hasn't taken any money from George Soros, although he acknowledged that it had accepted assistance from other organizations that are funded by Soros, and would like to accept money from Soros if it were offered. I asked him who does finance Media Matters, then? No reply. It's a secret. I guess that's how Media Matters stays "independent."

Update [3/3/2005]... And then there's this...

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:38 PM | link  

DARK SIDE OF THE BEA?   More on the way revisions to GDP growth statistics are handled, Steve Sturm sees a liberal conspiracy.
...being a cynical type, I decided to look into previous estimates of GDP growth...in particular, the estimates released just before the 1996, 2000 and 2004 elections*. Here's what I found:

The advance estimate of GDP gains for the 3rd Qtr of 1996 (released on October 30, 1996) was 2.2% - the final number, released a couple of months later, was only 2.1%.

The advance estimate of GDP gains for the 3rd Qtr of 2000 (released on October 27, 2000) was 2.7% - the final number, released a couple of months later, was only 2.2%.

The advance estimate of GDP gains for the 3rd Qtr of 2004 (released on October 29, 2004) was 3.7% - the final number, released a couple of months later, was actually higher, at 4.0%

I know the Bureau of Economic Analysis is supposed to be both competent and non-partisan. So it must be merely coincidental that the two times a Democrat was in the White House and in theory responsible for the health of the economy, the preliminary estimates were both higher than actual GDP growth later turned out to be? It must be merely coincidental that the one time a Republican was in the White House and in theory responsible for the health of the economy, the preliminary estimate released just prior to the 2004 election was actually lower than actual GDP growth later turned out to be? It must be merely coincidental that Gore was the beneficiary of a 18% over-estimate in how well the economy was doing in 2000? And it must be merely coincidental that Kerry was the beneficiary of the Commerce Department under-reporting GDP growth by 8% just before the 2004 election?

A coincidence. All three times. Imagine that.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:11 PM | link  

A PROVEN WRECKORD   What do you do for an encore after you're booted out on your ass for nearly destroying a major American corporation? Why of course you go on to be president of the World Bank, where you can destroy entire national economies. The New York Times reports that Hewlett Packard's ex-CEO Carly Fiorina is up for the job -- and eminently qualified. According to the Times, "She would...add glamour as probably the only candidate famous enough to be widely known by her nickname -- Carly." Not substantive enough? The Times quotes someone from a liberal think tank saying she has "a proven record in the corporate world." Yeah, so well proven she was just fired for it.

Thanks for our old friend Robert Musil (who doesn't seem to be blogging much lately) for the link. Robert notes, by the way, that the Times story was written by a woman.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:48 PM | link  

THE REAL FAIRNESS ARGUMENT   A letter from a middle-school teacher:
Thanks for making quite clear what a huge tax increase it would be to raise the payroll tax cap -- on average citizens with mortgages, tuition bills, kids’ orthodontic expenses, etc. Only the Ted Kennedy’s of the world, who once admitted, while campaigning at a factory gate, that he had never worked at a “real job”, consider an income of $90,000 as rich.

Even though my wife and I will never exceed the income cap, the class warfare tactics that the Democrats utilize infuriate me. To millionaires, like the majority of Senators, a few more thousands of dollars in taxes isn’t much at all. But it would be a burden to the majority of those they are targeting. Many of these are professional people who have invested a great deal of time and money in their careers, and have forgone years of higher incomes while pursuing higher degrees and/or building their businesses; and the Democrats continually paint them as greedy souls advancing themselves at the expense of the “poor.” I just don’t get it. Robert C. Bailey


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:06 AM | link  

THE COST OF DOING NOTHING: FUTURE GROWTH   Holman Jenkins makes a chilling point in his Wall Street Journal column this morning. He recalls Alan Greenspan's recent Senate testimony, in which the maestro expressed prudent concern for how the bond market would respond to making some the debt implicit in Social Security's unfunded liabilities into explicit bonded debt. Holman wonders, though, how the bond market will react if we do nothing!

"So where are we now? Interest rates remain near historic lows despite a growing deficit and a massive overhang of old-age liabilities. Others shouldn't be reluctant to interpret this, even if Mr. Greenspan is: What the bond market is telling us is that the penalty for Washington failing to tackle entitlements would not be higher inflation and higher interest rates, but higher taxes and lower economic growth."
 


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:46 AM | link  

BURIED ALIVE   Larry Kudlow nails the New York Times for its one-way-only economic coverage -- if news is pessimistic, it's on the front page; and if it's good, it's buried:
When the weaker-than-expected preliminary GDP report was first published in late January, the New York Times featured this story on the first page of its Saturday morning business section. The author was left-of-center reporter Louis Uchitelle, who groused about soft business investment outside of computers and software as well as weak export sales to foreign countries.

A month later, however, the revision to GDP for the last three months of 2004 showed a much stronger economy. The initial estimate of 3.1% was revised up to 3.8%. Business investment was revised to 18% from 14.9%. ...However, you would have had to look really hard in last Saturday’s New York Times to find the upbeat economic story. Rather than on the front page of business section, the optimistic report was buried on page B4. Instead of a senior reporter’s byline, the story relegated to page B4 was unsigned Reuter’s News Service copy.

Could it be that the so-called newspaper of record is not being entirely honest about the merits of Bush economic policy that have led to strong economic performance?


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:37 AM | link  

WHAT EUROPHILIA?   Is the admiration of France and Germany -- the sense that we need them to give us a passing grade in a "global test" -- really only a fetish of the elite? Perhaps. A new poll shows that "Fifty-seven percent (57%) of American voters have an unfavorable view of France. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that just 25% have a favorable opinion of that nation." And "Forty percent (40%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Germany while 34% have an unfavorable view."

Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:08 AM | link  


Tuesday, March 01, 2005

STILL WAITING TO HEAR FROM THE STERILE CUCKOO   Matthew Hoy of the HoyStory blog is on the case, holding Paul Krugman accountable for the hollow arrogant promise he made in his January 4, 2005 New York Times column. As Hoy says, "Krugman has had a free ride for the past couple of months. He criticizes everything. Where do you stand Paul? What's the solution? What's your plan? Enlighten us."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:17 AM | link  

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THE TRUTH ABOUT RAISING THE PAYROLL TAX CAP  
Should advocates of Social Security reform accept a hike in the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax as a fair price to pay to get personal accounts enacted?

No way. I've heard all the rationales for it -- and as you'll see, none of them stand up to scrutiny when you take a hard look at the numbers.

Currently, only the first $90,000 of annual wages are subject to the 12.4% payroll tax dedicated to Social Security (a worker pays 6.2% directly, and an employer pays another 6.2% on his behalf). $90,000 is the wage cap -- on earnings above the cap, no payroll taxes are assessed. President Bush has said many times that he will not consider raising the payroll tax rate of 12.4%. But the White House and Republican leaders have let it be known several times recently that they might consider raising the cap above $90,000.

Raising the cap would have no immediate financial impact on anyone earning less than $90,000 -- a considerable majority of the working population. But for anyone earning more than $90,000, it would be a tax increase of 12.4% on every dollar earned above $90,000 up to the new higher cap. Let's say the cap were moved to $150,000, and you earn $120,000. Your annual tax bill just went up by $3,720.

What would you get for your tax hike? Not enough.

If the current Social Security benefit calculations were kept in place, you would get an increase in future monthly benefit payments that would partially offset the tax hike. Let's say you are 20 years from retirement at age 67. At retirement, the present value of the 20 years of additional taxes you will have paid is about $103,000 (in today's dollars). But the present value of the additional benefits you can expect is only about $33,000.

That puts you behind by $70,000. Is that too high a price to pay for the privilege of being able to invest some of your payroll taxes in a personal account? Yes -- way  too high.

Under the current White House proposal, you would only be able to invest $1000 each year into your personal account. According to my calculations, your personal account would have to earn at an average compound rate of 13.5% per annum for 20 years -- after inflation -- in order for your investment earnings to just make you whole for the $70,000 gap between higher taxes and higher benefits.

To put that in context, since 1926, the S&P 500's average annual total return -- again, after inflation -- was only 7.2% per annum (according to Ibbotson Associates). Historically, the 13.5% per annum required just to break even on the tax hike has been achieved in only 41% of all 12-month periods.

But, some argue, don't personal accounts have to be financed somehow? Well, no -- or at least they don't need any additional financing that the Social Security system didn't need already. Under the White House proposal, a worker who elects for a personal account agrees to give up a proportionate fraction of his future benefits, in exchange. The cost of diverting payroll tax dollars into personal accounts today is perfectly offset by reduced benefit payments that will have to be made in the future. Yes, that will entail some public borrowing in the near term, but it will all be paid back to the penny out of lower benefit payments down the road.

What about the idea that raising the cap on taxable wages will only fall on that minority of well-off workers who make more than $90,000 a year? Wouldn't taxing that minority have the virtue of making personal accounts possible for the vast majority of less well-off workers who, arguably, need them the most?

First, there probably aren't that many people making $90,000 a year who would consider themselves rich. And as with all class warfare strategies, the ones who expect a free lunch out of the deal have to contend with the reality that you can't eat the rich and have them too. Lifting the wage cap would impose a cruel marginal tax increase on anyone earning between $90,000 and the level of the new cap. Stunting job creation and labor force participation among that population of workers would slow overall economic growth -- and slower growth always ends up hitting the little guys hardest of all.

There's no getting around the fact that raising the wage cap is a tax increase. For millions of workers -- most of whom are hardly "rich" -- it would more than reverse the effects of the President's 2003 tax cuts. For those millions of workers it would not be offset either by the gains of having a Social Security personal account, or by increases in Social Security benefits.

And it is completely unnecessary as a means of financing the establishment of personal accounts -- for that, no financing is needed in the first place.

President Bush recently said he was open to all "good ideas" to help reform Social Security. Lifting the wage cap is a bad idea. Bad for Social Security reform, and bad for the economy.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:36 AM | link  

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THE WORLD'S GREATEST ARGUMENT AGAINST RAISING THE WAGE CAP  
Here it is: the all-time most stunningly naked confession of the true nature of the liberal mind. Paul Krugman in today's New York Times on why we shouldn't raise the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax as part of Social Security reform:

"...an increase in the payroll tax maximum would make it much harder to pass other tax increases..."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:23 AM | link  


Monday, February 28, 2005

REMEMBER AL QAQAA?   No? Well, the New York Times doesn't either. According to Byron York on National Review Online,
...in the eight days from October 25 to November 1, the Times published 16 stories and columns about Al Qaqaa, plus seven letters to the editor (all of which were critical of the Bush administration).

And then, abruptly, it stopped. In the four months since the election, the Times appears to have simply dropped the Al Qaqaa story, publishing nothing about the munitions dump and the supposedly critical issues it raised about the Bush administration's handling of the war in Iraq.

What does "public editor" Dan Okrent have to say? The usual cowering cover-up.
"I would say at the very least that the dates they were running stories certainly can leave an impression," Okrent told NRO. "But I'm not ready to convict, at least not yet."
When will he be? Who knows... first, there are two missing things he'll have to find. Three, if you included his integrity.

Thanks to reader Bruce Terry for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:32 PM | link  

OUR STRONG AND ADMIRED ALLIES   Reuters:
"German unemployment rose to a postwar record in February as cold weather caused companies to lay off staff while labor-law changes swelled jobless registers..."
Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link -- who wrote, "No wonder they hate us." Indeed. That leaves the question, "Why do we admire them"?

Update... On a similar theme, here's Kevin Hassett's splendid "Axis of Losers" from almost two years ago:

Europe is undoubtedly currently divided. Some countries--the U.K. and Spain come to mind--support the U.S. while France, Germany, and Belgium do not. What do those who oppose the U.S. have most in common? That question might arouse hours of debate amongst political scientists, but not economists. There is a striking and significant difference between countries that support us and those that do not. The countries that do not support us have terrible economies, and have had terrible economies for a long time. Weasels they may be, but "axis of losers" may be a more precise moniker.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:47 PM | link  

THERE'S ONLY ONE WORD FOR THIS...   John Cogan of the Hoover Institution, in today's Wall Street Journal, has the word for those who advocate that the Social Security Trust Fund invest in stocks -- but who oppose personal accounts:

The president's personal account plan is not a radical new idea. In the past 25 years, countries as diverse as Australia, Chile, Great Britain and Sweden have chosen to adopt similar personal account plans for their retirement systems. In each case, these countries' leaders addressed the threshold question of whether it is best to have a Social Security system based on genuine savings and investment or a program that is pay-as-you-go. In each case, they chose savings and investment.

There is one other way to make sure the Social Security surpluses are saved, not spent: the federal government itself could invest the surpluses in stocks and bonds. This proposal is now being championed by AARP and others. (I'll leave it to AARP's leaders to explain why it believes the federal government is a more capable investor than its own members.) My own objection is that government investment inevitably leads to social investing, crony capitalism, government interference in corporate governance matters, and eventually to government ownership of the means of production. There's a word for that, of course -- socialism. A century of experience has shown it doesn't work. For good reasons then, government investment in corporate equities has been rejected by President Roosevelt and every president who has since considered it, including President Bush.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:20 AM | link