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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Friday, November 12, 2004 KRUGMAN FRAMED AT THE WHITE HOUSE Here's the real impact Paul Krugman has had on politics and policy. From a Financial Times story on Charles Blahous, the White House staffer who is coordinating administration activities concerning reforming Social Security with private accounts:In his office is a framed column by Paul Krugman, the firebrand New York Times writer and Princeton economist, that characterised Mr Blahous as hysterical and dishonest in defending personal accounts.That's Krugman -- an inspiration to us all. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:04 PM | link
Thursday, November 11, 2004 THE HOOVER METER PETERS OUT Our old economics correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" is back after a long absence, and he notes:The attribution error-plagued Hoover statistic is about to be eradicated. Until the presidential election earlier this month the Democratic National Committee web page contained the "Hoover meter" to measure "how close Bush [was] to becoming the first President since Herbert Hoover to have a net job loss at the end of his tenure". This favorite DNC talking point is nearing dissipation. Inclusive of the recently unveiled estimated benchmark revisions through March 2004, the establishment survey indicates that there have been cumulative job losses of 188k since January 2001. Since payrolls are now averaging about 200k this year, a persistence of that pace will allow the November report to reveal cumulative job gains during Bush's initial term.Hey -- and then there's December and January, too! Happy days are here again! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:53 PM | link
What's more interesting is Fair's forecast for 2008: It is possible to use the current vote equation to make a prediction for 2008. There will be no incumbent running again (PERSON = 0), and the Republicans will have a negative duration effect (DURATION = 1). If, say, GROWTH is 3.0, INFLATION is 3.0, and GOODNEWS is 2, which is a moderately good economy, the vote prediction for the Republicans is 50.1 percent, a dead heat. So the main message for 2008 is that the election will be close if the economy is moderately good. It would take a quite strong economy for the equation to predict a comfortable Republican win, and it would take a quite weak economy for the equation to predict a comfortable Democratic win. The Democrats clearly have a much better shot in 2008 than they had in 2004 according to the equation.Thanks to Bruce Bartlett for the link. Update... Reader David Skurnick chimes in: I'm one of those who think that the Fair Model was thrown off by massive media bias. Evan Thomas of Newsweek was quoted as predicting that media bias would be worth 15 points. That's not too far away from the difference between Fair's predicted 14% margin and the actual 3% margin. I think it's not unreasonable to conclude that in 2004, media bias was worth around 11% to Senator Kerry.Interesting question. There were times during the election season when I felt that Bush was going to be annihilated by the storm of negativity drummed up by the media. But in the end, I am convinced that the media may have helped Bush. How many Americans were persuaded to vote for Bush simply as a protest against the lynch-mob environment that had been stirred up by the liberal media? I think most Americans value fair play, and are opposed to blind hatred. When Michael Moore sat in a place of honor at the Democratic convention -- when Dan Rather reported news based on faked documents (twice) -- when best-selling books accused Bush of being a cocaine user -- wasn't it all just too much? How many Americans would vote to put that kind of mentality in the White House? A minority, thankfully. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:22 PM | link
SEEING RED IN A BLUE STATE There is still hope... I am currently a junior at the University of Hawaii Manoa. I am the past State Chairman of the Hawaii Federation of College Republicans and current State Secretary of the Hawaii Federation of Republican Women. I recently read your Krugman Truth Squad column called "I'm Loving It," and I loved every line. In the past month I have been in a constant battle with one of my English professors regarding the state of the economy. I have been arguing that the economy is doing much better than the media would have us believe. Of course my professor is far left and has been preaching just the opposite saying we're actually in a recession. When I asked her where she got her so called "facts" she said an unbiased source, that source being Paul Krugman. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:15 PM | link
JOKE OF THE DAY Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:22 PM | link
AL GORE THE INVESTOR? The Club for Growth blog has more on the ridiculous idea that Al Gore is going to be an investment manager. Quoting a 1998 Fortune:article [Al Gore] turns out to be one of the nation's few high-income earners who has failed to profit from the bull market. According to Gore aides and official disclosure records released in May, which give a range of income and assets, the Vice President is not the beneficiary of a family trust, has no blind trust, no stocks -- not even mutual funds -- and has earned no dividends since taking office. His net worth has been dropping for years. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:15 AM | link
MORE SOROS SPECULATION Okay, maybe George Soros manipulated the political futures contracts at Tradesports.com. Maybe he even manipulated the oil market, to make George Bush look bad before the election. But here's the wildest idea yet: ...is the decline of the dollar the work of irate and bitter billionaire George Soros?...given that Soros is already known as The Man Who Broke the Bank of England, this idea doesn't seem so far-fetched. Why not wreck the US economy out of spite -- and make money while doing it? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:56 AM | link
MORE MAP MADNESS "If indeed all those blue states all got together and seceded from the union, think what would be left for those red states, nothing. There would be no educational system. You would have nothing. What would be left to you? I mean, where is all of this talent in this country? It's on both sides, the Northeast corridor." -- Geraldine Ferraro to Sean Hannity on Hannity and Colmes, November 6. Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:40 AM | link
Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:31 AM | link
Wednesday, November 10, 2004 JOKE OF THE DAYPosted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:13 AM | link
The liberal hate-blogs continue to try to find ways to portray red states as bad and blue states as virtuous (one has even noted that most red states permitted slavery way back when). Here's another point of view -- looking at charitable giving state by state. All the top-ranked givers are red, and all the bottom-ranked givers are blue. What do you know. Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:54 AM | link
Tuesday, November 09, 2004 JOKE OF THE DAYPosted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:27 AM | link
OK, I can't resist that bait.Update... Sylvain has more: About this statement of mine:More people voted for Bush -- both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers -- in 2004 than in 2000 across 45 states.I just went through the whole list, state by state. Bush actually increased his percentage in every state except SD and VT. The number of votes cast for him increased in all states except CA. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:15 AM | link
Here's something to ponder: NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, PBS and CNN all serve their news with pretty much the same political mix (calling that mix a "slant" or a "bias" or the consequence of "unbiased policies" does not change the economic fact that the mix, whatever it is called, is pretty much the same). That's a lot of suppliers to align themselves with the views of the roughly 50% of the nation who voted for Kerry-Edwards. ...Fox is the only major television supplier to align itself with the views of the roughly 50% of the nation who voted for Mr. Bush. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:28 AM | link
Monday, November 08, 2004 NOT RELATED? Not all Krugmans are equally dishonest about the election:Scott Krugman, spokesman for the National Retail Federation, offered another reason why last week's election was good news for consumer spending. "What helps is having a decisive winner," he said. "Not having the process drawn out for a month like it was four years ago is a good thing." Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:25 AM | link
Sunday, November 07, 2004
The firm aims to deliver higher investment returns by integrating traditional equity analysis with sustainability research, a fledgling area that combines the principles of economic growth, environmental stewardship and social accountability.All I want to know is: can I short it? Thanks to ever-vigilant reader Jill Olson for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:23 PM | link
Well, it seems like one to me. All the liberals thought Bush stole the 2000 election because Gore won the popular vote by a razor-thin margin. Bush won an outright majority in the popular vote, plus added to his party's grip in both houses of Congress. I think that deserves the name "landslide." But there is no precise definition -- so the hate-blogs can do what they always do: accuse people who disagree with them of "lying." In the meantime, while we're waiting for the haters to dry up and blow away, here are some more thoughtful comments from thoughtful readers. (And a few from the lefty lunatic fringe, just to keep it fair and balanced.) Wisconsin Public Radio devoted
one hour of its air time on Friday to Paul Krugman, who not only spewed his
anti-Bush venom and bile but made it perfectly clear to the listening audience
that he has slipped into dementia and paranoia. The rumor I heard is that the funny trading on Tradesports.com was coming out
of California. And, of course, Ms. Streisand was reported to have become an
ardent day trader a few years ago. So maybe it was Streisand, not Soros. Paul Krugman needs to come out among the great unwashed. I'm sure that modern
medicine can cure any disease he might contact, other than knowledge. Bush won,
not because of some great ultra-conservative, right-wing, ultra-religious cabal.
He won because he demonstrated leadership and values that were more in tune with
the electorate. I've yet to know a leader, manager, or person with deep
religious convictions who had to continually advertise and sell (like Kerry) his
abilities or convictions. They just do it. It's obvious. In Krugman's Tuesday column he wrote, "Regular readers won't be in any doubt
about who I want to win, though New York Times rules prevent me from giving any
explicit endorsement. (Hint: it's the side that benefits from large turnout.)" Phil Reality is that Paul Krugman is a national treasure ! You're just a dum
business man ! The day will come that Krugman gets the Nobel Prize in Economics
while you'd still be a dum business man writing your dum blog in NRO. Enough
said! You actually understate the success of the Tradesports markets in predicting the election, but then, so did the Tradesports markets. When I captured the data on September 22, New Mexico was in the low 40s, New Hampshire was at 50, and Wisconsin was at 60. If you'd bought any state bid between 50 and 80 and sold any state offered between 20 and 50 (New Hampshire was neither; the bid and offer were on opposite sides of 50) you would have made about $30. You would have been short volatility; it's fair to note that, had something unexpected happened in October causing a landslide win, you could have lost up to $30 or $40, depending on who won the landslide. (I should have noted the electoral vote probabilities; I don't know whether you could have profitably hedged this out.) Still, I think it's fair to say that the Tradesports market was too cautious in its predictions. In addition, every Senate race it got wrong was trading in the forties or fifties. The pundits didn't seem to think Murkowski or Thune were doing as well as DeMint's opponent; Demint was trading in the eighties. Details: I would have paid $56.93, including commissions, for 8 states that would have expired at $70. I would have sold short 9 states for $25.60, net of commissions, expiring at $10. No states beyond 80 and 20 went the wrong way, so taking a position on every state would have paid off more, but would also have cost more. If Kerry won big (all 17 states), I lose the $31.33. If Bush won big, I lose another $10 on top of that. (Commissions are $.04 per contract, right? Is there a commission when the contract expires? That isn't included.) I used Tradesports Senate probabilities to determine my contributions. I declined to send DeMint more money late in the cycle, instead directing it to Coburn, because Tradesports had him just over 50%. Dean Jens I work in the crude pit on the NYMEX floor. I am not 100% sure, but I think
Soros was buying crude futures in London ahead of the election. I bet the $55.17
high will not be broken anytime soon. Look for a swift drop soon in crude prices
and a dollar rally. A thought comes to mind I'd love to share with Mr. Krugman myself. Your comments on Paul Krugman are appalling. You only wish you had one tenth
of his intelligence, and I live in a red state. You are mistaken: you are the
alpha wolf and our country would be a far better place without the likes of you.
The echo chamber you participate in via Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the Wall
Street Journal editorial page, has unfortunately misinformed the red states,
and as Thomas Freidman said, instead of asking people whom they voted for you
could have just asked them where they get their news. I am fatigued at the toll
you and your cohorts have taken on our country. God save us during the next four
years. Paul Krugman also has an outlandish line
in his Friday column
about how "we must start now to retake the Senate." He hasn't glanced at the
outlook for 2006, but I have. The Democrats will have 18 seats at stake,
including Jeffords, the GOP only 15. Almost none of the 33 would be at all
vulnerable except that several are getting older, and they are mostly Democrats.
So it will be a battle over the open seats, just like this year, except that
even Karl Rove can't pick up more than two from these states. But neither can
they from ours. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:55 PM | link
GOTCHA! I love this! Jon Henke of the QandO blog takes Krugman apart one sentence at a time! Now I know the answer to that age-old question -- how many gotcha's can you squeeze into just one posting? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:31 PM | link
MORE WOLFE ON THE PROWL IN THE UK Tom Wolfe has to end a conversation with the Times of London: I must finish now because I need to get to Kennedy airport to wave goodbye to all those writers and journalists who’ve told me they can’t take another four years of Bush. Triumphalism is not my style but I can’t help an “I told you so” smile. Oh, by the way, most of them are leaving for London. Heaven help you when they get there.It's interesting to speculate upon the process by which certain public persons are filtered in and others filtered out by the liberal media. Wolfe must be just about the only American intellectual whom the British media would quote saying such things. Why? What is special and different about him? I suspect it is because his personal brand image is that of an arbiter of status, so to quote favorably is not only safe, but is itself a sign of status. A liberal journalist need have no fear that he or she will be seen as stupid for quoting Wolfe saying something conservative; but the very same statement by just about anyone else would be rejected out of hand. Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:02 PM | link
County-by-county, shaded according to the percentage of Bush and Kerry voters in each locality: The electoral map, with the size of states adjusted to reflect the number of electoral votes each possesses: Moby's secessionist fantasy: Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:57 AM | link
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