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Friday, November 12, 2004

KRUGMAN FRAMED AT THE WHITE HOUSE    Here's the real impact Paul Krugman has had on politics and policy. From a Financial Times story on Charles Blahous, the White House staffer who is coordinating administration activities concerning reforming Social Security with private accounts:
In his office is a framed column by Paul Krugman, the firebrand New York Times writer and Princeton economist, that characterised Mr Blahous as hysterical and dishonest in defending personal accounts.
That's Krugman -- an inspiration to us all.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:04 PM | link  


Thursday, November 11, 2004

THE HOOVER METER PETERS OUT    Our old economics correspondent "Irrational Exuberance" is back after a long absence, and he notes:
The attribution error-plagued Hoover statistic is about to be eradicated. Until the presidential election earlier this month the Democratic National Committee web page contained the "Hoover meter" to measure "how close Bush [was] to becoming the first President since Herbert Hoover to have a net job loss at the end of his tenure". This favorite DNC talking point is nearing dissipation. Inclusive of the recently unveiled estimated benchmark revisions through March 2004, the establishment survey indicates that there have been cumulative job losses of 188k since January 2001. Since payrolls are now averaging about 200k this year, a persistence of that pace will allow the November report to reveal cumulative job gains during Bush's initial term.
Hey -- and then there's December and January, too! Happy days are here again!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:53 PM | link  

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FAIR MODEL POST-MORTEM   
We have written often about the presidential vote-share equation of Yale's Ray Fair, which, it turns out, correctly predicted Bush's re-election. But Fair's model had forecasted a 57.1% majority, while Bush in fact pulled only (only!) 51.6%. Fair got it right directionally, but missed the number by a mile (in fact, I think it's his biggest miss ever). How come? Fair has just posted a post-mortem, in which he spends many professorial words saying, basically, that he has no idea. All he really says is, "My personal view is that were it not for Iraq, Bush would have come close to the equation's prediction..."

What's more interesting is Fair's forecast for 2008:

It is possible to use the current vote equation to make a prediction for 2008. There will be no incumbent running again (PERSON = 0), and the Republicans will have a negative duration effect (DURATION = 1). If, say, GROWTH is 3.0, INFLATION is 3.0, and GOODNEWS is 2, which is a moderately good economy, the vote prediction for the Republicans is 50.1 percent, a dead heat. So the main message for 2008 is that the election will be close if the economy is moderately good. It would take a quite strong economy for the equation to predict a comfortable Republican win, and it would take a quite weak economy for the equation to predict a comfortable Democratic win. The Democrats clearly have a much better shot in 2008 than they had in 2004 according to the equation.
Thanks to Bruce Bartlett for the link.

Update... Reader David Skurnick chimes in:

I'm one of those who think that the Fair Model was thrown off by massive media bias. Evan Thomas of Newsweek was quoted as predicting that media bias would be worth 15 points. That's not too far away from the difference between Fair's predicted 14% margin and the actual 3% margin. I think it's not unreasonable to conclude that in 2004, media bias was worth around 11% to Senator Kerry.

That leads to speculation of the value of main stream media support in 2008. My guess is that it will be less, because of the growth of blogs and the growing popularity of Fox News. But, how much less? At what rate is the mainstream media losing their ability to shape public opinion?

Interesting question. There were times during the election season when I felt that Bush was going to be annihilated by the storm of negativity drummed up by the media. But in the end, I am convinced that the media may have helped Bush. How many Americans were persuaded to vote for Bush simply as a protest against the lynch-mob environment that had been stirred up by the liberal media? I think most Americans value fair play, and are opposed to blind hatred. When Michael Moore sat in a place of honor at the Democratic convention -- when Dan Rather reported news based on faked documents (twice) -- when best-selling books accused Bush of being a cocaine user -- wasn't it all just too much? How many Americans would vote to put that kind of mentality in the White House? A minority, thankfully.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:22 PM | link  

SEEING RED IN A BLUE STATE    There is still hope...
I am currently a junior at the University of Hawaii Manoa. I am the past State Chairman of the Hawaii Federation of College Republicans and current State Secretary of the Hawaii Federation of Republican Women. I recently read your Krugman Truth Squad column called "I'm Loving It," and I loved every line. In the past month I have been in a constant battle with one of my English professors regarding the state of the economy. I have been arguing that the economy is doing much better than the media would have us believe. Of course my professor is far left and has been preaching just the opposite saying we're actually in a recession. When I asked her where she got her so called "facts" she said an unbiased source, that source being Paul Krugman.

What's going on in our schools right now is a scary thing. Teachers like mine are using their classrooms as political podiums and spewing their slant to these poor students. In our last debate in class I confronted her about her "unbiased source" and exposed her tricks to the whole class. She then called me a "closed-minded naive bimbo." Those are her exact words. And this woman is a professor. Scary!

I just want to thank you for all your efforts at exposing the crazies like Paul Krugman. It's nice to know I'm not alone in the fight. I use your articles all the time to gather my facts for the battles I face everyday in my classrooms. Aloha and Mahalo!

Kimberly Craven


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:15 PM | link  

JOKE OF THE DAY   

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:22 PM | link  

AL GORE THE INVESTOR?    The Club for Growth blog has more on the ridiculous idea that Al Gore is going to be an investment manager. Quoting a 1998 Fortune:article
[Al Gore] turns out to be one of the nation's few high-income earners who has failed to profit from the bull market. According to Gore aides and official disclosure records released in May, which give a range of income and assets, the Vice President is not the beneficiary of a family trust, has no blind trust, no stocks -- not even mutual funds -- and has earned no dividends since taking office. His net worth has been dropping for years.

Gore has no savings or investment plan. He has IRAs worth less than $15,000 total and a government pension, but what money he has is either in checking and passbook accounts (his earned interest last year totaled $510) or tied up in property.

Could Gore have some sort of holier-than-thou hangup about investing, a fear that if he or even a blind-trust guardian bought an equity, somehow a conflict-of-interest accusation might be leveled? Gore’s aides brush aside such a notion. It's just that Gore, for whatever reason, is content to live from paycheck to biweekly paycheck.

Republican critics who charge Gore with being overly generous with other people’s money should rest assured that he doesn’t have a clue what to do with his own.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:15 AM | link  

MORE SOROS SPECULATION    Okay, maybe George Soros manipulated the political futures contracts at Tradesports.com. Maybe he even manipulated the oil market, to make George Bush look bad before the election. But here's the wildest idea yet:
...is the decline of the dollar the work of irate and bitter billionaire George Soros?...given that Soros is already known as The Man Who Broke the Bank of England, this idea doesn't seem so far-fetched. Why not wreck the US economy out of spite -- and make money while doing it?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:56 AM | link  

MORE MAP MADNESS    "If indeed all those blue states all got together and seceded from the union, think what would be left for those red states, nothing. There would be no educational system. You would have nothing. What would be left to you? I mean, where is all of this talent in this country? It's on both sides, the Northeast corridor."

-- Geraldine Ferraro to Sean Hannity on Hannity and Colmes, November 6.

Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:40 AM | link  

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ARAFAT: RIP   
Arafat has gone to his peace, precisely the kind of peace for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize: namely, death. Here's an hilarious and troubling commentary from Daniel Pipes on Arafat's last days. As always, it was about the money...

Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:31 AM | link  


Wednesday, November 10, 2004

JOKE OF THE DAY  

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:13 AM | link  

The liberal hate-blogs continue to try to find ways to portray red states as bad and blue states as virtuous (one has even noted that most red states permitted slavery way back when). Here's another point of view -- looking at charitable giving state by state. All the top-ranked givers are red, and all the bottom-ranked givers are blue. What do you know.

Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:54 AM | link  


Tuesday, November 09, 2004

JOKE OF THE DAY   

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:27 AM | link  

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LANDSLIDE?   
Did Bush win a "landslide"? Sylvain Galineau, who blogs at ChicagoBoyz, sends this note:
OK, I can't resist that bait.

In 2000, Bush was behind in the popular vote by 0.51% and that was enough to claim he "stole" the election; that he had no "moral authority", no "popular mandate". For some, he had no "legitimacy". Four years later, we learn that a 3.03% victory is equally meaningless. Conclusion: one vote for the Democratic Party is worth seven votes for the Republican Party, or more. No bias or prejudice there.

In 2000, 50,460,110 Americans voted for Bush. In 2004, they were 59,634,378. So after 4 difficult years, two wars, a recession, constant accusations of incompetence, corruption and worse in every other editorial and even at the box office -- "Fahrenheit 9/11" -- 9.2m more people voted for Bush in 2004 than in 2000.

More people voted for Bush -- both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers -- in 2004 than in 2000 across 45 states.

In twelve blue states, Kerry won by a significantly narrower margin in 2004 than Gore did. Example: in rather blue New York, Gore won by 24.98% in 2000. In 2004, Kerry won by 17.27%. Even in California, the Democratic margin shrunk from 11.80% to 10.28%.

Bush is the first President since his father in 1988 to win more than 50% of the popular vote (Clinton never managed this).

Bush is the first President since FDR to win re-election and enlarge his majority in both Houses of Congress.

Tom Daschle lost his Senate seat; this is the first ousting of a majority or minority leader since 1952 when Arizona Senator Ernest McFarland lost to Barry Goldwater.

Should we go on ? (Data from Dave Leip's excellent U.S. Presidential Election Atlas).

It is quite rare in politics to see theory collide with reality on such a large scale that one would think it would make it easier to ditch the failed theories that led to such a public drubbing. So far, we only get denial and anger. Acceptance usually follows. For rational people, that is.

Update... Sylvain has more:
About this statement of mine:
More people voted for Bush -- both percentage-wise and in absolute numbers -- in 2004 than in 2000 across 45 states.
I just went through the whole list, state by state. Bush actually increased his percentage in every state except SD and VT. The number of votes cast for him increased in all states except CA.

As Michael Moore would say, "THERE IS NO LANDSLIDE!"


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:15 AM | link  

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WHY FOX RULES   
The Man Without Qualities reminds us (and the New York Times) of the simple arithmetic behind Fox News's rise to dominance: in essence, they have no competition in half the market.
Here's something to ponder: NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, PBS and CNN all serve their news with pretty much the same political mix (calling that mix a "slant" or a "bias" or the consequence of "unbiased policies" does not change the economic fact that the mix, whatever it is called, is pretty much the same). That's a lot of suppliers to align themselves with the views of the roughly 50% of the nation who voted for Kerry-Edwards. ...Fox is the only major television supplier to align itself with the views of the roughly 50% of the nation who voted for Mr. Bush.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:28 AM | link  


Monday, November 08, 2004

NOT RELATED?    Not all Krugmans are equally dishonest about the election:
Scott Krugman, spokesman for the National Retail Federation, offered another reason why last week's election was good news for consumer spending. "What helps is having a decisive winner," he said. "Not having the process drawn out for a month like it was four years ago is a good thing."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:25 AM | link  


Sunday, November 07, 2004

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SURE. WHY NOT?   
Apparently Democrats will invest in anything. Look at the millions gullible liberal fools like George Soros and Andy Rapaport threw into the Kerry money pit. Never one to miss the main chance, now Al Gore has announced he's founding a money management firm with ex-principals of liberal Goldman Sachs. The angle?
The firm aims to deliver higher investment returns by integrating traditional equity analysis with sustainability research, a fledgling area that combines the principles of economic growth, environmental stewardship and social accountability.
All I want to know is: can I short it?

Thanks to ever-vigilant reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:23 PM | link  

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VERY LOVING IT   
Emails continue to pour in on my Friday National Review Online column, "I'm Loving It."  It must have been linked at some liberal hate-blog, because I've started getting quite a number of them berating me for saying that Bush won the presidency by a "landslide." I assume the "landslide" thing is the nit the hate-blog has chosen to pick, and so now its faithful shock-troops are dutifully flooding my inbox with the same talking point, repeated mindlessly over and over. Do you think they'll still be doing that kind of thing a week from now? A month? A year? I suspect not. The money is drying up -- so the provocateurs like Atrios -- with their hands out to George Soros -- are going to have to go back to their day jobs.

Well, it seems like one to me. All the liberals thought Bush stole the 2000 election because Gore won the popular vote by a razor-thin margin. Bush won an outright majority in the popular vote, plus added to his party's grip in both houses of Congress. I think that deserves the name "landslide."  But there is no precise definition -- so the hate-blogs can do what they always do: accuse people who disagree with them of "lying."

In the meantime, while we're waiting for the haters to dry up and blow away, here are some more thoughtful comments from thoughtful readers. (And a few from the lefty lunatic fringe, just to keep it fair and balanced.)


Wisconsin Public Radio devoted one hour of its air time on Friday to Paul Krugman, who not only spewed his anti-Bush venom and bile but made it perfectly clear to the listening audience that he has slipped into dementia and paranoia.

On two separate occasions on the Kathleen Dunn Show, Krugman claimed that he concluded his most recent op-ed piece with an announcement that he was going on vacation so that his readers would not think that the New York Times had fired him because of political pressure from the White House. He insinuated that the Bush Administration had tried to remove him before, but that such pressure had not worked, "at least not yet."

More outrageously, he told Kathleen Dunn, who gave Krugman the most obsequious introduction I've ever heard, that because of the election he was afraid for the country's future as well as his "own personal safety," which explains why he repeatedly said that he was taking time off at "an undisclosed location."

And for outright political dementia (or manipulation), he frantically warned WPR listeners that the Bush Administration would soon dismantle "minority rights and women's rights." Needless to say, the host and all the callers spoon fed Krugman with their own conspiracies and vacuous analyses, which in turn allowed Krugman to swell with delusion and hysteria.

Patrick Michelson


The rumor I heard is that the funny trading on Tradesports.com was coming out of California. And, of course, Ms. Streisand was reported to have become an ardent day trader a few years ago. So maybe it was Streisand, not Soros.

By the way, people who have worked for Soros say he cannot trade for his life and his coup in breaking the Bank of England almost certainly had to be the result of inside knowledge. He couldn't have made that big a bet without some leg up.

Steve Jenkins


Paul Krugman needs to come out among the great unwashed. I'm sure that modern medicine can cure any disease he might contact, other than knowledge. Bush won, not because of some great ultra-conservative, right-wing, ultra-religious cabal. He won because he demonstrated leadership and values that were more in tune with the electorate. I've yet to know a leader, manager, or person with deep religious convictions who had to continually advertise and sell (like Kerry) his abilities or convictions. They just do it. It's obvious.

As a conservative and Republican, I hope Krugman and the others, delude themselves as to why they lost. Let the elite continue to believe we are ignorant yokels.

Bob Greene


In Krugman's Tuesday column he wrote, "Regular readers won't be in any doubt about who I want to win, though New York Times rules prevent me from giving any explicit endorsement. (Hint: it's the side that benefits from large turnout.)"

Surely Krugman understands the concepts of marginal votes and can calculate the marginal votes of the large turnout. Or he can check here and see the results: 65.5% of the additional votes went to Bush. The large turnout favored Bush.

Ergo, Krugman wanted Bush to win. Who would have guessed?

Phil


Reality is that Paul Krugman is a national treasure ! You're just a dum business man ! The day will come that Krugman gets the Nobel Prize in Economics while you'd still be a dum business man writing your dum blog in NRO. Enough said!

Luigi


You actually understate the success of the Tradesports markets in predicting the election, but then, so did the Tradesports markets. When I captured the data on September 22, New Mexico was in the low 40s, New Hampshire was at 50, and Wisconsin was at 60. If you'd bought any state bid between 50 and 80 and sold any state offered between 20 and 50 (New Hampshire was neither; the bid and offer were on opposite sides of 50) you would have made about $30. You would have been short volatility; it's fair to note that, had something unexpected happened in October causing a landslide win, you could have lost up to $30 or $40, depending on who won the landslide. (I should have noted the electoral vote probabilities; I don't know whether you could have profitably hedged this out.) Still, I think it's fair to say that the Tradesports market was too cautious in its predictions.

In addition, every Senate race it got wrong was trading in the forties or fifties. The pundits didn't seem to think Murkowski or Thune were doing as well as DeMint's opponent; Demint was trading in the eighties.

Details: I would have paid $56.93, including commissions, for 8 states that would have expired at $70. I would have sold short 9 states for $25.60, net of commissions, expiring at $10. No states beyond 80 and 20 went the wrong way, so taking a position on every state would have paid off more, but would also have cost more. If Kerry won big (all 17 states), I lose the $31.33. If Bush won big, I lose another $10 on top of that. (Commissions are $.04 per contract, right? Is there a commission when the contract expires? That isn't included.)

I used Tradesports Senate probabilities to determine my contributions. I declined to send DeMint more money late in the cycle, instead directing it to Coburn, because Tradesports had him just over 50%.

Dean Jens


I work in the crude pit on the NYMEX floor. I am not 100% sure, but I think Soros was buying crude futures in London ahead of the election. I bet the $55.17 high will not be broken anytime soon. Look for a swift drop soon in crude prices and a dollar rally.

Joe Salvatore


A thought comes to mind I'd love to share with Mr. Krugman myself.

What do you call 10,000 disgruntled Democrats headed for Canada?

A good start.

Brian Anderson


Your comments on Paul Krugman are appalling. You only wish you had one tenth of his intelligence, and I live in a red state. You are mistaken: you are the alpha wolf and our country would be a far better place without the likes of you. The echo chamber you participate in via Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, has unfortunately misinformed the red states, and as Thomas Freidman said, instead of asking people whom they voted for you could have just asked them where they get their news. I am fatigued at the toll you and your cohorts have taken on our country. God save us during the next four years.

Mary Kobey


Paul Krugman also has an outlandish line in his Friday column about how "we must start now to retake the Senate." He hasn't glanced at the outlook for 2006, but I have. The Democrats will have 18 seats at stake, including Jeffords, the GOP only 15. Almost none of the 33 would be at all vulnerable except that several are getting older, and they are mostly Democrats. So it will be a battle over the open seats, just like this year, except that even Karl Rove can't pick up more than two from these states. But neither can they from ours.

Democrats up in 2006 are: Byrd, Akaka, Bingaman, Cantwell, Carper, Clinton, Conrad, Corzine, Dayton, Feinstein, Kennedy, Kohl, Lieberman, Nelson FL, Nelson NE, Sarbanes, Stabenow and Jeffords.

Republicans up in 2006 are: Allen, Burns, Chafee, DeWine, Ensign, Frist, Hatch, Hutchison, Kyl, Lott, Lugar, Santorum, Snowe, Talent and Craig. The oldest republicans are Lugar, born in 1932, followed by Hatch, 1934, and Burns, 1935. After that, it's Lott, born in 1941. As you can see, all relatively young compared to the Dems, and mostly from very blue states.

Byrd was born in 1917, Akaka 1924, Kennedy 1932, Sarbanes and Feinstein 1933, Jeffords 1934, Kohl 1935. Then Ben Nelson of Nebraska, 1941, but he and the others are not very old.

There is going to be a Republican majority in the Senate for a long time, but it doesn't look like they can get to 60 any time soon. Corzine is said to be leaving for the governorship of New Jersey, but fat chance of gaining his seat. Our best shot could be to replace Herb Kohl, and maybe that guy who took on Feingold will run again. Mark Dayton also should be vulnerable, since he acts mildly insane. Byrd will die in office, even if he has to run again in 2012, and unfortunately, West Virginia just elected a Democratic governor. We might have a shot at beating his appointed replacement. Anyway, you can bet Rove will make superhuman efforts.

Larry Hughes

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:55 PM | link  

GOTCHA!    I love this! Jon Henke of the QandO blog takes Krugman apart one sentence at a time! Now I know the answer to that age-old question -- how many gotcha's can you squeeze into just one posting?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:31 PM | link  

MORE WOLFE ON THE PROWL IN THE UK    Tom Wolfe has to end a conversation with the Times of London:
I must finish now because I need to get to Kennedy airport to wave goodbye to all those writers and journalists who’ve told me they can’t take another four years of Bush. Triumphalism is not my style but I can’t help an “I told you so” smile. Oh, by the way, most of them are leaving for London. Heaven help you when they get there.
It's interesting to speculate upon the process by which certain public persons are filtered in and others filtered out by the liberal media. Wolfe must be just about the only American intellectual whom the British media would quote saying such things. Why? What is special and different about him? I suspect it is because his personal brand image is that of an arbiter of status, so to quote favorably is not only safe, but is itself a sign of status. A liberal journalist need have no fear that he or she will be seen as stupid for quoting Wolfe saying something conservative; but the very same statement by just about anyone else would be rejected out of hand.

Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:02 PM | link  

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FOUR THOUSAND WORDS ON THE ELECTION   
Some great electoral information graphics from Michael Pollard, blogging at the Scrutineer. This is but a sampling.

County-by-county, shaded according to the percentage of Bush and Kerry voters in each locality:

The electoral map, with the size of states adjusted to reflect the number of electoral votes each possesses:

Moby's secessionist fantasy:

Canada vs. Jesus:

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:57 AM | link