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Saturday, November 06, 2004

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YOU'RE "LOVING IT," TOO!   
I've gotten literally hundreds of emails in response to my Friday National Review Online column, "I'm Loving It."  I'm plowing through them all, giving each at least a form response, and many of them substantive responses. As I go along, I'll print excerpts from the best ones here. Here's the first installment.


Krugman wrote Friday, "Without the fading but still potent aura of 9/11, when the nation was ready to rally around any leader, he wouldn't have won at all."

But in his column on January 20, 2002, it was Krugman who said, "I predict that in the years ahead Enron, not Sept. 11, will come to be seen as the greater turning point in U.S. society."

I guess 9/11 had some impact after all.

Gregory Chaudoin


Prior to the election Paul produced a valentine to democracy, waxing very sentimental about the glory of voters. He was preparing the ground for a celebration of Kerry's election as a triumph of democracy, and urge us all to "just get along with one another." But democracy had the audacity to fail him, so posh on all that.

Bruce Stram


That’s one hilarious bit of invective from the Krugster. I especially liked: “blue states, on average, have lower rates of out-of-wedlock births than red states.” Yo, Paulie! What are the “on average” red/blue state rates of abortions among unmarried women?

T. C. Lynch


You are absolutely right that this election should be viewed as a landslide for Bush. I don't know if its being spun this way anywhere else, but in 12 of the states Kerry won, he did so by a smaller margin than Gore did in 2000 (according to New York Times statistics). My math isn't great, but it looks like Kerry lost the following percentage points in his "blue" states:

NJ: -9%
Hawaii: -9%
R.I.: -8%
N.Y.: -7%
Conn: -7%
Del: -6%
Md: -3%
Mass: -2%
PA: -2%
Ill: -2%
Mich: -2%
Cal: -1%

So aside from 10 million more people voting for Bush this time around, Bush actually increased his support in the blue states. And dont forget, Kerry supposedly benefitted from all those Y2K Nader votes this time around. And he STILL lost ground.

Jeff Trimarchi


I am educated (UC Berkeley, '76), thoughtful, analytical and successful. I am also one of 59 million stupid people who loves guns, babies born completely with their brains intact, individual responsibility, marriage between a man and a woman, our unique American culture, the smallest government possible, low taxes, a powerful military, and the comfort of a clear sense of right and wrong rooted in reality. I am not an Evangelical Christian.

Michael F. Cavanagh


You wrote, "Krugman having a “long planned” fainting spell. George Soros joining a monastery. Liberal bloggers holding out the tin cup. It’s been a wonderful week, hasn’t it?"

But wait there's more: A murderous thug lies dying in a Paris hospital.

Arnie Keller


I was an econ major in college. Shouldn't we all be concerned that American universities might choose Krugman's text book to teach Economics? It might be suitable for early 20th century Russia, but in America in 2005? Holy cow!!!!!

Ray Cormier


Here's an example of how Krugman is still trying to warp the fabric of the truth continuum. Today, he wrote:

"Democrats are as likely as Republicans to be faithful spouses and good parents, and Republicans are as likely as Democrats to be adulterers, gamblers or drug abusers. Massachusetts has the lowest divorce rate in the country; blue states, on average, have lower rates of out-of-wedlock births than red states."

Only that's not true. Massachusetts residents are not as likely to be spouses of any kind; MA may be TIED for the SECOND-lowest divorce rate at 2.5 per thousand according to a report released by the CDC this August, (DC is counted separately by the CDC) but that's because MA has the fourth-lowest marriage rate in the country at 5.9 per thousand. You can't get divorced if you don't get married in the first place.

For both divorce and marriage rates, MA is at 63% of the national average, 2.5/4.0 divorce (62.5%) and 5.9/9.3 marriage (63.4%). This proves little except that Krugman is a deceptive ass.

I've got the citations at my blog. Also, I should mention that of the twelve states with the lowest marriage rates, 10 of them (and the top 7) all went for Kerry.

Vox Day


Those of us who once read the Times in the days of A. M. Rosenthal have given up on that agenda-driven rag. I continued to get Sunday's Times for the crossword puzzle for a while, rather than rely on other periodicals that reprint it because the print was larger and I didn't have to squint to read the clues. It was the only part of the paper that had a clue.

Peter E. Dans


I take great offense to the fact you would call Krugman an "alpha wolf." I saw the guy debating Bill O’Reilly and he is no alpha anything, and especially not a wolf. An alpha wolf is dominant, earning respect through strength. Krugman is a poor misguided soul, and he is that way because of the true alpha male types he grew up with. He was probably beaten regularly in school, picked on, made fun of, and harbors genuine jealousy from being treated as an outcast now turned into absolute anger. It’s a lesson for all parents, just as telling as the lesson of Columbine. The reason I am pointing out such a minute detail is because we sometimes find the biggest reasons for why things are the way they are in the smallest of details. When someone is the king of the crazy, I’m not impressed with the title of king, it’s just that simple.

Jason Malmquist


I was surprised to find some amount of pity and compassion for Mr. Kerry as the loser despite his vicious campaign. It helped that his concession was a gracious one that may have preempted a potentially dark future for our electoral process. That may have been his greatest contribution in political life to this country. Nevertheless, though I am not a gloater, I too smiled widely when Michael Moore who prematurely posted a nasty farewell letter to the President silently shut down his website removing his embarrassing misstep and closing the door to a potential flood of “I’m Loving It” e-mails. How wonderful that the man with the biggest mouth in America has been, at least temporarily, silenced. Of course somewhere down deep I suspect that for Soros, Krugman and Moore, Wednesday was secretly the happiest day of their lives. What better for those who pass off malcontent as patriotism than four more years to have someone to malign and attack. It makes their job so much easier. So it turns out when its all said and done the election was a win-win situation.

Adrian Day


What monastery does George Soros think he is going to? Being an Eastern Orthodox Christian myself, I know a little bit about monasteries and hardly think, as kind and loving as monastery dwellers tend to be (with the possible exception of some of those on Mount Athos), there are many that would receive this self-proclaimed atheist. Possibly he was thinking not of Catholic or Orthodoxy, but something in the far east --- and that would not necessarily be a bad thing.

Barbara Seybert


Do you think the New York Times editorial board knew, when they hired Krugman, that he would be a monomaniac when it came to President Bush, and that he would devote virtually every column to Bush-hating? Was Gail Collins, the editorial page boss, pleased that Krugman was predictably and tediously predictable? Does she also have blood dripping from her fangs when it comes to Bush, or did she expect some variety from Krugman?

Bud Stevenson


Please credit the bloggers who fueled my poll watching fires Tuesday by leaking those silly exit polls. It just helped to redouble the efforts of Republicans in Long Beach, California, to get out the vote. When your home precinct has 1 Republican voting booth to 3 for the Democrats during the primary election, you kind of know you're going to lose the precinct. We knew we just going to make bad news a little less bad. Am I ever glad we persisted. After all, every vote counts!

Colleen McDonald


Krugman's assertion that Christians who are are opposed to partial-birth abortion and gay "marriage" are also opposed to minority rights "in the background" is inelegant (try "closet bigots"), unsupported, dumb, and condescending-- a difficult combination to achieve.

Ed Sherling


To see George Soros get his comeuppance is a pleasure that is beyond description. In the late 80's I was a market maker for a government securities primary dealer and had the "pleasure" of making markets to Mr. Soros and his Quantum Funds. He used what we called a "herd rout" or "spray" trading technique. He would flash in the market out-sized trades to give the impression of pending volume transactions, then after causing a little bit of excess volatility to define a short term range, as the market approached the extremes of the direction that he wanted, he would simultaneously execute smaller partial transactions with 6-10 dealers. This had the effect of "routing the herd" and moving the market through his desired price objective. He then closed his position as the herd stampeded. His technique in the early 90's with the currency markets was identical, costing various Central banks billions of dollars. Thus, for those of us that have seen the technique "up-close-and-personal" with our trading P&L on the line, seeing him operate in the political trading markets made it obvious to us who was behind the transactions. Unfortunately, I believe that he didn't carry the positions to maturity, but closed them as the Bush market traded down, accomplishing what he wanted anyway. For the true conspiracy theorists an investigation into his connection with the exit pollsters might in order.

Anonymous


Using Krugman's own standards and language, he's a liar, he's a messenger of hate, he's destructive and he's almost always wrong. His pot-shot criticisms are usually uninformed; most blogs are better researched than his column. Of course, you can't ever make that criticism in the New York Times because amazingly (note sarcasm) the they will always print letters attacking Safire or Brooks, but never ones criticizing Krugman. I shudder to think he'll write a textbook that actually might influence some future economists. I can only hope that the Krugman-free period becomes permanent.

Chris Wildermuth

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:50 PM | link  


Friday, November 05, 2004

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THE CRITICS AREN'T EXACTLY RAVING   
So Paul Krugman is taking a "long planned" couple months off from shock-punditry to work on his econ textbook. Here are some comments sent in by Steven Antler, an econ professor at Roosevelt University (who blogs as Econopundit).
I'm teaching International Finance & Balance of Payments for the first time this semester, and I decided to use Krugman's text International Economics just to see what it was like, whether there was anything there of the old Paul Krugman, economics writer, I used to like so much, etc. etc. etc.

The semester is now a little over half completed and despite continual efforts to like the book I find in it the same shortcomings as can be found in Krugman's columns. The textbook evidences Krugman's chatty, shifty-eyed tendency to pull the rug out from under the reader (usually at the really difficult junctures) with news that what's being explained is really far too over simplified, or (at its worst) really wrong but good enough for now -- because, presumably, the reader is just too dumb to understand the correct theory.

The text avoids specified functions in favor of general functional forms -- demanding readers just memorize which parameters shift which curves. A little high school algebra would allow the students to see why the curves shift as they do, but the functions would be far less impressive-looking.)

The organization is more or less traditional, but there's a kind of overriding blur to the whole thing: my students' most common complaint is the text neither promises nor delivers any payoff. Exactly why any of the text's technical material is actually interesting to anyone is never trotted out.

In short: this is a textbook written by an intellectual bully who is really quite unsure of himself.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:49 PM | link  

ANOTHER ONE HITS THE FAINTING SOFA    On Atrios' blog today:
Blog Off

Okay, I'm pulling the comments and taking off until Sunday evening or Monday morning. I'll resist the temptation to post a long-winded explanation, and just say that right now the blog is annoying me, perhaps for the first time since I've started it, and that's a sign that I need to put it on pause for a couple of days.

Thanks to reader Jeremy Delamater for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:42 PM | link  

KRUGMAN'S FAINTING SPELL    I've gotten lots of good quips from readers about Krugman's "long planned" disappearance from the New York Times through the end of the year. This one takes the cake. From reader Charles Venezia:
"I’ll be starting a long-planned break next week, to work on an economics textbook."

Why do we assume he's writing one? Maybe he's reading one...


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:35 AM | link  

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KRUGMAN RETIRES TO THE FAINTING SOFA   
On election day, Paul Krugman was all choked up. Now, he's just choking. And I won't kid you -- I'm loving it.

Here's what America's most dangerous liberal pundit had to say in his New York Times column Tuesday morning, when he expected John Kerry to win the presidency:

"I always get a little choked up when I go to the local school to cast my vote. The humbleness of the surroundings only emphasizes the majesty of the process: this is democracy, America's great gift to the world, in action.

"But over the last few days I've been seeing pictures from Florida that are even more majestic. They show long lines of voters, snaking through buildings and on down the sidewalk: citizens patiently waiting to do their civic duty. Those people still believe in American democracy; and because they do, so do I.

...Regular readers won't be in any doubt about who I want to win, though New York Times rules prevent me from giving any explicit endorsement. (Hint: it's the side that benefits from large turnout.) Above all, though, I want to see democracy vindicated, and the stain of 2000 eradicated, by a clean election in which as many people as possible get to cast their votes, and have those votes counted."

The poor fool. How easy it was for him to get all misty-eyed and magnanimous, and wish for nothing more than a clean election, when he thought that it was his candidate who would benefit from a large voter turnout. But Tuesday proved that to have been as absurdly wrong as everything else Krugman has written in his Times column over the last four years.

So in Krugman's column today, the eyes are dry and the fangs are bared. It's full of all the hate-filled Bush-bashing talking points we've heard repeated for years now -- the same ones Kerry campaigned on, and the same ones that sent him to defeat. And what about Tuesday's homage to the tear-jerking glory of American democracy, rendered all the more glorious by record turnout?

"President Bush isn't a conservative. He's a radical -- the leader of a coalition that deeply dislikes America as it is...

"...thanks to a heavy turnout by evangelical Christians, Mr. Bush has four more years to advance that radical agenda. ...Mr. Bush did not win in a landslide. Without the fading but still potent aura of 9/11, when the nation was ready to rally around any leader, he wouldn't have won at all."

But, of course, Bush did win in a landslide. And when the angry sputtering is all over, that's a rebuke just too humiliating for Krugman to withstand. For all of us who have been wondering what a defeated Krugman would do if Bush were re-elected, now we know -- like Scarlet O'Hara, he's retiring to the "fainting sofa":

"I'll be starting a long-planned break next week, to work on a economics textbook. I'll be back in January."

I didn't think my joy Tuesday night could be made any more complete, but it has. Just think -- two months of Krugman-free Tuesdays and Fridays. Oh, by the way, I hereby volunteer to proof-read Krugman's textbook before it is published. He's been known to make mistakes, and I've been known to catch them.

Krugman's not the only hate-filled liberal celeb who's swooning. Zillionaire George Soros, who threw $100 million down the Kerry sinkhole, said just before the election that if Bush wins, "I shall go into some kind of monastery."

A particular humiliation for Soros must be the fact that he, celebrated as "the man who broke the Bank of England" with his speculative attacks on the British pound in 1992, was bested by a tiny online futures market during this election. We'll never know if it was Soros, but as I've reported here, someone using Soros' trading philosophy tried to manipulate the futures on George Bush's re-election probabilities, traded online at Tradesports.com. After whoever it was threw away millions of dollars on losing trades to push futures prices down at critical moments in the campaign -- to make it seem as though Bush's chances were worse than they really were -- the futures nevertheless turned out to be near-perfect predictors of the election.

What other form of polling had a track record like this, in this crazy election year? Tradesports' futures prices as of month-end September (a little more than a month before the election)

  • correctly predicted Bush would win;
  • correctly predicted all 50 states except three (NH, WI, NM);
  • correctly predicted all 34 senate races except four (AK, FL, NC, SD -- in all cases the GOP won);
  • correctly predicted the GOP would keep Senate control; and
  • correctly predicted the GOP would keep House control.

Tradesports futures prices as of the last Friday in October (four days before the election)

  • correctly predicted Bush would win;
  • correctly predicted all 50 states except one (WI);
  • correctly predicted all 34 senate races except one (AK);
  • correctly predicted the GOP would keep Senate control;
  • correctly predicted the GOP would keep House control.

Everyone who celebrates Bush's victory must have his or her own personal post-election schadenfreude list. Perhaps you especially savor Michael Moore's humiliation -- or Terry McAuliffe's, or Dan Rather's. So many liberal hate-mongers, so little time. As an economist and a trader, Krugman and Soros are at the top of my list. But as a blogger, I take special pleasure in the sudden and ignominious ending of the 15 minutes of fame of such online smear artists as Brad DeLong, Joshua Marshall, Markos Moulitsas (who blogs as "Kos"), and Duncan Black (who blogs as "Atrios").

These bloggers have constituted an online echo-chamber, amplifying and repeating the party line dictated by liberal alpha wolves like Krugman and McAuliffe. At the same time, they have acted as an "oppo research" network, digging up unsubstantiated Bush-bashing lies that pundits like Krugman can then validate simply by publishing them in respectable media. And where do you think the money comes from so that these bloggers can sit around all day in their pajamas blogging, instead of doing real work? No surprise -- some of it comes from George Soros.

But the jig us up. Yesterday "Atrios" wrote,

I hope...that neither the generosity of wealthy benefactors nor the flood of small money donations from the less-than-rich crowd stops flowing to the new infrastructure we're creating. But, I'm increasingly getting the sense that part of the problem is that at the moment it isn't clear just what this infrastructure is supposed to be supporting. We need to figure out just what our ideas and message are, and then the infrastructure will help us project them into the public mind.

Translation:

Mr. Krugman, please keep telling us what to think -- we don't know "what our ideas and message are" or what we are "supposed to be supporting."  And Mr. Soros, even though you threw $100 million away paying people like me to fail to win the presidency for John Kerry, please keep paying us anyway. We need the money. And it was fun. Please?

Krugman having a "long planned" fainting spell. George Soros joining a monastery. Liberal bloggers holding out the tin cup. It's been a wonderful week, hasn't it?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:01 AM | link  


Thursday, November 04, 2004

FLASH: EARLY LOOK AT KRUGMAN'S POST ELECTION COLUMN    Here it is. It's about as bad as we imagined. More later.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:24 PM | link  

THE FINGER OF BLAME (5)    Our Ivy League correspondent points out this item from today's Harvard Crimson:
Students Rally in Copley, Claim Bush 'Stole' Election

In the wake of the presidential election, Harvard students joined more than 100 other political protesters yesterday in Copley Square for the Rally and Vigil for Democracy...the rally was peaceful and attracted individuals of various political affiliations and beliefs, including union representatives, Socialists, Democrats, anarchists and radicals."

The crowd wasn't large, but thank God it was so diverse.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:54 AM | link  

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THE FINGER OF BLAME (4)  
From the Times of London:
Even the location of the optimistically titled “KerryEdwards 2004 Victory Party” was an odd choice: it was in front of the grand Copley Plaza Hotel where Fritz Kohn, the Democratic challenger’s Jewish grandfather, shot himself after losing his third fortune.
Thanks to the Blogspirator for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:16 AM | link  

MORE ON KITTEN KILLING    Reader Chris Glick follows up on the Democrat threat that "Every Time you Vote Republican, God Kills a Kitten":
The two boxy brown monsters pursuing the feline are actually "Doumo-kun," sort of a mascot for Japan's NHK-BS (broadcast satellite) TV. A gentle giant, Doumo-kun regularly appears with a spectacles-sporting bunny that is apparently an old man and a very slender weasel. You can see a few (legal) copies of him here: http://www.nhk.or.jp/bs/

My guess is the Democrat losers who made this (1) are egregiously abusing a copyright and (2) are shamelessly culturally ignorant and/or insensitive, because Doumo-kun would never eat a kitty, not even Hello Kitty, although he might protect Paul Krugman's cat from the regular kicking it seems to get.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:27 AM | link  

THE FINGER OF BLAME (3)   Maureen Dowd's column today shows no more grace or self-awareness than it does wit (as to that last, she calls Dick Cheney a "cuckoo clock").
While Mr. Bush was making his little speech about reaching out, Republicans said they had "the green light" to pursue their conservative agenda, like drilling in Alaska's wilderness and rewriting the tax code.
Dowd's rhetoric is aimed so entirely at people who think just the way she does, she holds as self-evident that "drilling in Alaska's wilderness and rewriting the tax code" are especially conservative, or bad, or even controversial. She treats it as irrelevant that Bush just won a landslide majority -- something that Bill Clinton never did. Isn't that a "green light" for initiatives of this sort, which are thoroughly mainstream except from the perspective of leftist die-hards like Dowd?

Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link (who writes, after a nervous Tuesday, "I LOVE YOU GEORGE FOR MAKING THEM ALL ABSOLUTELY FRIGGIN MISERABLE................").

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:17 AM | link  

THE FINGER OF BLAME (2)    From our old friend Atrios:
I hope, as Josh Marshall discusses, that neither the generosity of wealthy benefactors nor the flood of small money donations from the less-than-rich crowd stops flowing to the new infrastructure we're creating. But, I'm increasingly getting the sense that part of the problem is that at the moment it isn't clear just what this infrastructure is supposed to be supporting. We need to figure out just what our ideas and message are, and then the infrastructure will help us project them into the public mind.
Translation:
Mr. Soros, even though you threw $100 million away paying people like me to fail to win the presidency for John Kerry, and even though we have no clue "what our ideas and message are," or what we are "supposed to be supporting," please keep paying us anyway. We need the money. And it was fun. Please?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:09 AM | link  


Wednesday, November 03, 2004

TRADESPORTS SCORES!    Most of the conventional polls got it wrong this year, but the political futures contracts traded online at Tradesports.com nailed this election.

Based on Tradesports' market prices as of month-end September (a little more than a month before the election):

  • Correctly predicted Bush would win
  • Correctly predicted all 50 states except three (NH, WI, NM -- note that IA not official yet)
  • Correctly predicted all 34 senate races except four (AK, FL, NC, SD -- note in all cases GOP won)
  • Correctly predicted GOP would keep Senate control
  • Correctly predicted GOP would keep House control

Based on prices as of the last Friday in October (four days before the election):

  • Correctly predicted Bush would win
  • Correctly predicted all 50 states except one (WI -- note that IA not official yet)
  • Correctly predicted all 34 senate races except one (AK)
  • Correctly predicted GOP would keep Senate control
  • Correctly predicted GOP would keep House control

Score another victory for free markets, and the power of price-signals to aggregate the wisdom of the entire world. Take that, George Soros! You (or someone like you) tried to manipulate this market, and you failed. This little market is one that's bigger than you are!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:08 PM | link  

THE FINGER OF BLAME (1)    Let's Fly Under the Bridge notes a posting on Brad Delong's site by Bobby, flamekeeper of the online Krugman shrine.
Personally, I think that Democrats need to discuss and, more importantly, act in terms of changing media coverage of their candidates in order to prevent future election losses.
How can I improve on FLUBA's response:
Right. Work to get Dan, Peter, Tom and their friends on your side, Bobby and Paul. Four more years of twice weekly Op-eds on that message. That's the ticket.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:44 PM | link  

I AGREE WITH KRUGMAN    He wrote yesterday,
By coming to the polls, citizens are literally giving a vote of confidence in American democracy. And in so doing, they are proving themselves wiser than some of those they elected.
Right on, brother. Right on.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:40 AM | link  


Tuesday, November 02, 2004

RAINES RESPONDS FOR KRUGMAN    Reader Mark Boland points out this op-ed by former Times executive editor Howell Raines -- it is the template for Krugman's column Friday, after Bush has won the election. But a sample:
For even if the Bush family dynasty gets chopped off at this last, best chance, the underlying dynamics that created this historical moment - religion run amok, informational decay in the mass media and in the appetites of its audience, a campaign environment of insulting irrationality - will still be in place.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:38 PM | link  

KRUGMAN GETS ALL CHOKED UP    Paul Krugman's election day op-ed is a Norman Rockwell column celebrating the dignity and nobility of the common man who will stand in the rain in order to vote for the candidate of Krugman's choice.
I always get a little choked up when I go to the local school to cast my vote. The humbleness of the surroundings only emphasizes the majesty of the process: this is democracy, America's great gift to the world, in action.

But over the last few days I've been seeing pictures from Florida that are even more majestic. They show long lines of voters, snaking through buildings and on down the sidewalk: citizens patiently waiting to do their civic duty. Those people still believe in American democracy; and because they do, so do I.

Kinda gets you right here, don't it? Well, this is one column Krugman is going to have to eat -- word by word. I just can't wait for Friday's column -- a snarling rebuke to the timidity and cowardice of the American voter to have re-elected George Bush.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:22 AM | link  

PAUL KRUGMAN AND SOME POLISH SPAM ARTST    ...working together, thanks to the election. Several readers have reported receiving the following email apparently "from" Paul Krugman. As reader James Ivers put it, "Paul Krugman is the giant, bulging, throbbing genius of economics, so, of course, I opened it." Here it is:
Corruption in Iraq. This message has been received today.

Dear Editor,

One thing may change the November's election.

Coalition of corruption
Polish politics make private business on the war. The corruption range to the highest authorities.

Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka was earlier the Chief of International Coordination Council in Iraq. As the chief of the council, he supported a choice of Bank Millennium (in which he was a member of the supervisory board) to the consortium that would menage the Trade Bank of Iraq. Accidentally, the Prime Minister admitted (in Polish parliament) that he had known how the members of the commission had voted - nevertheless, he was not a member of the commission.

Another matter regards to the public tender that decided about a contract on equipment for Iraq's army. In consortium that won the first tender was "Ostrowski Arms" - the firm that had not a license on the trade of weapons and whole firm was consists of a few persons. What is interesting in this firm? The owner and the chief of the firm was Andrzej Ostrowski - a good acquaintance of President Aleksander Kwasniewski. Mr. Ostrowski had issued a book about the calendar of the choice of F-16 to Polish army. It was only one book wroted by him ...and President Kwasniewski wrote an introduction to this book. At present, Mr. Andrzej Ostrowski is the accused of a trade of weapons without a license.

After the journalist's investigation regards Ostrowski Arms the public tender in Iraq was cancel. What the tender was it? The firm without license on a trade of weapons is the one of winners. The firm with a few people staff, not famous in branch... However, good famous for Aleksander Kwasniewski.

I think you should confirm both events: the run of the choice of the consortium managing the Trade Bank of Iraq and the choice of the unknown firm without a license on weapons trade to the consortium that was expected to equip the Iraq's army.

The international corruption affair will range to the high Bush's administration and to the highest Polish authorities.

Enclosed please find more details, nevertheless, it is only in Polish: www.polandsecurities.com/businessinIraq

Best Regards,
Jaroslaw Suplacz


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:18 AM | link  


Monday, November 01, 2004

NOW THE DEMOCRATS HAVE REALLY GONE TOO FAR   

Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the pic.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:32 PM | link  

TOP TEN TIMES CRIMES    Here's TimesWatch with a comprehensive discussion of the ten worst liberal New York Times distortions of this presidential campaign. Here's the table of contents:
1) An Ominous Beginning
2) Misrepresenting the 9/11 Report
3) Suggesting Political Motivation Behind Terror Warnings
4) Same Campaign Tactic, Two Different Takes
5) A Double Standard on Acceptance Speeches
6) Conspiracy Theorizing on Bush's Debate "Bulge"
7) Ron Suskind on Bush's "Intolerance of Doubt"
8) Tarring "Unsubstantiated" Swift Boats Veterans, Plugging False Bush "AWOL" Smear
9) A Slanted Voter Guide
10) "Looted Iraqi Explosives" Scoop: Bombshell or Politically Motivated Dud?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:03 PM | link  

WOLFE ON THE ELECTION    Here's my hero Tom Wolfe, interviewed in the Guardian:
"I have sympathy with what George Bush is trying to do, although obviously the excursion [into Iraq] is not going well."

...the America which votes tomorrow is a country riven over morality like never before. On the flip side of the culture of ubiquitous sex is that of puritan Christianity, as harnessed in no small part by Bush. "Yes, there is this puritanism," says Wolfe, "and I suppose we are talking here about what you might call the religious right. But I don't think these people are left or right, they are just religious, and if you are religious, you observe certain strictures on sexual activity - you are against the mainstream, morally speaking. And I do have sympathy with them, yes, though I am not religious. I am simply in awe of it all; the openness of sex. In the 60s they talked about a sexual revolution, but it has become a sexual carnival."

..."If I have been judged to be right wing," he says, "I think this is because of the things I have mocked. It started with Radical Chic [published in 1970, about a fundraising party for the Black Panthers organised by Leonard Bernstein]. I was denounced because people thought I had jeopardised all progressive causes. But my impulse was not political, it was simply the absurdity of the occasion. Then I wrote The Painted Word, about modern art, and was denounced as reactionary. In fact, it is just a history, although a rather loaded one. Then came The Right Stuff [his account of America's first astronauts], after which my relative enthusiasm for Nasa was another sign of perfidy."

He is "proud", he says, "that I do not think any political motivation can be detected in my long books. My idol is Emile Zola. He was a man of the left, so people expected of him a kind of Les Miserables, in which the underdogs are always noble people. But he went out, and found a lot of ambitious, drunk, slothful and mean people out there. Zola simply could not - and was not interested in - telling a lie. You can call it honesty, or you can call it ego, but there it is. There is no motivation higher than being a good writer."

..."Here is an example of the situation in America," he says: "Tina Brown wrote in her column that she was at a dinner where a group of media heavyweights were discussing, during dessert, what they could do to stop Bush. Then a waiter announces that he is from the suburbs, and will vote for Bush. And ... Tina's reaction is: 'How can we persuade these people not to vote for Bush?' I draw the opposite lesson: that Tina and her circle in the media do not have a clue about the rest of the United States. You are considered twisted and retarded if you support Bush in this election. I have never come across a candidate who is so reviled. Reagan was sniggered it, but this is personal, real hatred. "Indeed, I was at a similar dinner, listening to the same conversation, and said: 'If all else fails, you can vote for Bush.' People looked at me as if I had just said: 'Oh, I forgot to tell you, I am a child molester.' I would vote for Bush if for no other reason than to be at the airport waving off all the people who say they are going to London if he wins again. Someone has got to stay behind."

"I think support for Bush is about not wanting to be led by East-coast pretensions. It is about not wanting to be led by people who are forever trying to force their twisted sense of morality onto us, which is a non-morality. That is constantly done, and there is real resentment. Support for Bush is about resentment in the so-called 'red states' - a confusing term to Guardian readers, I agree - which here means, literally, middle America. I come from one of those states myself, Virginia. It's the same resentment, indeed, as that against your own newspaper when it sent emails targeting individuals in an American county." Wolfe laughs as he chastises. "No one cares to have outsiders or foreigners butting into their affairs. I'm sure that even many of those Iraqis who were cheering the fall of Saddam now object to our being there. As I said, I do not think the excursion is going well."

And John Kerry? "He is a man no one should worry about, because he has no beliefs at all. He is not going to introduce some manic radical plan, because he is poll-driven, and it is therefore impossible to know where or for what he stands."

...And there has been a complete climate change in the nation which elected Bill Clinton twice, to that which may confer the same honour on George Bush tomorrow. This, says Wolfe, began not with the election of Bush, but on the morning of September 11 2001...

"That day told us that here was a different kind of enemy. I honestly think that America and the Bush administration felt that something extreme had to be done. But I do not think that the Americans have become a warlike people; it is rare in American history to set about empire-building - acquiring territory and slaves. I've never met an American who wanted to build an empire. And while the invasion of Afghanistan was something that had to be done, I am stunned that Iraq was invaded."

Wolfe is by no means afraid to offend the political right - "I'm gratified if you find me to be hard on them too," he says. He also anticipates that "conservatives will not like this new novel because I refuse to take the impact of political correctness seriously - I think PC has probably had a good effect because it is now bad manners to use racial epithets."

So what is it about his liberal neighbours and fellow diners in his adoptive New York that Wolfe cannot abide? "I cannot stand the lock-step among everyone in my particular world. They all do the same thing, without variation. It gets so boring. There is something in me that particularly wants it registered that I am not one of them."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:05 PM | link  

JOHN KERRY: SEA LAWYER    Reader John Patten, a retied US Navy captain, sends in the following comments:
In Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Dictionary (Tenth Edition), a sea lawyer is defined as an argumentative captious sailor. As one who has served aboard a number of U.S Navy ships in various assignments including commanding officer, I would like to expand that definition. A sea lawyer is someone who knows all the rules. He knows them so thoroughly that he can always find a loop hole, a reason to justify any action or inaction. He can rationalize anything, citing chapter and verse when necessary.

A sea lawyer also is a master at telling his listeners what they want to hear. He will describe the same action or event differently to his seniors, his peers, and his subordinates. The difference is not in the substance but in the shading of what he says, and always in such a way as to justify whatever it is that he has done. When something goes wrong, it was never his fault

But most of all a sea lawyer knows the rules so well that he can exploit any loophole to his personal advantage. For example, every Viet Nam vet that I questioned did not know that they could request a transfer if they had been awarded three Purple Hearts. Admittedly, my sample size is small, but it includes, among others, a high school classmate who flew Navy helo's in Viet Nam and a Naval Academy classmate who was skipper of a Swift Boat about the same time as John Kerry. None of them knew about the three Purple Heart rule – but John Kerry knew. Senator Kerry claims that he anguished over his decision to request a transfer back to a shore assignment in the United States, but the facts are that within four days of his third purple heart, his request was in Washington.

Commanding Officers and unit commanders don't care much for sea lawyers. They may be reasonably effective in their job, but overall they are a burden. Given an opportunity to transfer a sea lawyer, they usually do it rather than trying to persuade the individual to remain aboard. Perhaps that is why Lieutenant Kerry's request was forwarded so quickly, and why at least one of his fellow officers encouraged him to make the request. It is very revealing that apparently no one tried to talk him out of it. Could it be they were glad to see him go?

A typical characteristic of a sea lawyer is looking out for number one. They are self-centered. Now, every sailor, enlisted or commissioned, has to look out for his or her own interests, but in the Navy there is a loyalty to one's shipmates. It is a bond that cannot be described in civilian terms. There is no civilian equivalent to the word "shipmate." This bond is weaker, and in some cases non-existent in a sea lawyer.

The bond of shipmates is particularly unique in one who commands a ship, no matter how large or how small. When their tour is complete, Commanding Officers leave their ship with a certain poignancy that cannot be described. I can personally attest to this – I did not want to leave my crew when it was my turn to go, even though I had enjoyed the position for three and a half years. Yet Lt. John Kerry asked to leave his crew after a few weeks. In my opinion, in true sea lawyerly fashion, he abandoned his crew.

It is fascinating to compare Senator John Kerry's Viet Nam service with that of another senator who also served in Viet Nam, Senator John McCain. He was shot down over North Viet Nam in October 1967 and captured by the North Vietnamese. He was severely injured and for a time his survival was in doubt, but he survived despite broken bones and internal injuries.

Senator McCain's father was Admiral John S. McCain, Commander-in-Chief Pacific and his area of responsibility included Viet Nam. The North Vietnamese running the prison knew this, and in June 1968, they offered to let McCain go home. It would be a great propaganda piece for the North Vietnamese. For McCain it was a moral dilemma. The U.S. Code of Conduct requires that prisoners of war only accept release in the order in which they were captured – First In First Out inventory control! There were many POW's who had been there much longer and McCain was torn. However, by their interpretation of the Code, a prisoner could accept an early release if he had serious health problem. McCain was a physical wreck, so he anguished over the decision. Three days later, the Commander of all POW camps in North Viet Nam, nicknamed "The Cat" by the Americans, asked McCain his decision. McCain said "No."

The Cat asked if that was his final decision and McCain said it was. The Cat then said, as related by Baltimore Sun reporter Bob Timberg in his book John McCain: an American Odyssey, "They taught you too well, McCain, they taught you too well." As a direct result of this refusal to accept release, John McCain was tortured severely, a result he could see coming.

The contrast between these two United States Senators is striking.

Many conservatives do not care for Senator McCain's independence, but no one can deny that he was a genuine hero with a lot guts. And he was no sea lawyer! He refused to abandon his fellow POWs.

Senator Kerry claims that he was brave and resolute in his four months in Viet Nam. His supporters say he was a hero. Whether he was or not, I cannot say. I wasn't there. But the majority of those who were there, the "Swifties," say very strongly that he was not. Heroics and bravery aside, I can conclude, both from the way he abandoned his shipmates, his slanderous remarks about his fellow veterans, and his inconsistencies as a presidential candidate, John Kerry is a real sea lawyer.

If John Kerry is elected president, I wonder how he will handle his first crisis. Will he face it and deal with it, or will he waltz around it and explain how it isn't his fault? Will he hang tough or will he once again abandon his crew? This question is not trivial, because the crew he might abandon includes us!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:53 AM | link  

YOU KNOW THIS CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN GOING ON TOO LONG    when the Wall Street Journal runs this op-ed, the day before the election, and feels it has to sign it with the warning "Editor's note: This is a satire of the Angry Left. Please do not take it seriously."
Ten reasons I'm not voting for you, Mr. George W. Bush.
BY JIM TREACHER

10. Do you really think it's a good idea to be Hitler, George? Hitler killed millions of people and his approval ratings are in the toilet. Why can't you be somebody people like? Regis, maybe, or the Prophet Mohammed. Anybody but Hitler! Being Hitler = BAD IDEA.

9. Two words: You. Are. Dumb.

8. When Karl Rove used the remote-control device implanted in your upper back to force you to murder Iraqi babies and American soldiers for oil and/or no reason because Saddam was mean to your dad, plus what about the WMDs you lost after you lied about them even being there in the first place, and then Rove tried to make everybody think your Thanksgiving turkey wasn't plastic by planting fake documents about your military service and forcing Dan Rather to say "Sorry, I guess" on national TV, did you really think we wouldn't figure it out?

7. People might make fun of me. Maybe you're used to it by now, but I'm not.

6. I mean, black hoods? Fa-shion dis-a-a-a-ster. Wasn't Abu Ghraib dreary enough already? (More like Abu Drab!) I would have started a riot--a laugh riot. While pointing at you!

5. How dare you taunt a dying Christopher Reeve with a big brown bottle of stem cells? The man was on his deathbed, you sick monster. Why did you have to hold the spoon right in front of his lips? "C'mon, Chrissy, it's right here. You can do it, bwah! Just another coupla inches. Oooh, yer close. Close!" Shame on you, Dubya.

4. I can't really think of anything for item No. 4, and for that I blame you. (Also the Jews.)

3. Where's Osama? C'mon, Shrub, we all know you've got him in some secret Ashcroft prison and he's running around loose in the world, plus also besides which everybody just saw him live on tape giving the dramatic reading of "Fahrenheit 9/11" that the Halliburton PR department wrote for him to swing the election your way. Well???

2. The Internet.

1. I can no longer afford the premiums on my falling-sky insurance. Adios, chimp!


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:25 AM | link  


Sunday, October 31, 2004

CYCLES OF FRAUD    The New York Times' Eduardo Porter continues to surprise, every once in a while at least, with a story that isn't straight out of the Time's anti-capitalism playbook. Today, writing about Eliot Spitzer's latest jihad, he notes,
But is the flood tide of scandals evidence of a flood tide of malfeasance?

Economists have their doubts. Chicanery does tend to flourish when the economy is booming and regulation is weakening, they say, but the last few years have hardly been boom times. More likely, they say, is that bad business behavior is about as common now as it ever was, but that it has attracted more notice because Americans are tolerating it less.

For even as the incentives for companies to cheat are especially great in periods of economic and financial abundance, the desire to catch the crooks grows most intense after prosperous times go bust.

Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:29 AM | link  

MORE ON TRADESPORTS MANIPULATION    Linda Seebach writes for Capitol Hill Blue with some interesting new insights into who's been manipulating the Bush futures on Tradesports.com.
Though it's not publicly known who the trader might be...it might be worthwhile for the Democrats if the media began reporting that Bush and Kerry were close to a tie.
Reader Joe Cambria adds,
As a currency trader for over 24 years I think I have a shot at working out how other traders think and act. I won't speculate who has traded these big lots but I think I know why.

For some time now both the polls and the futures markets have been predicting a Bush victory. In a sense then Wall Street was/has been discounting a Bush victory and therefore the risk to Wall Street would have been if there was a sudden movement away from that prediction. As everyone knows, markets don't like surprises -- so a move away from Bush towards Kerry would have caused a move in markets, particularly the large stock indexes.

If you look at the volume and size of these election betting markets you will see they are not that big. This leads me to think that throwing a little money in an attempt to move these markets, and then shorting the large index futures, would be a great way to make some money if these indexes fell. As you know Wall Street is more fixated on these election markets than they are on polls. So a sudden change in direction could provide a good speculative opportunity.

I can think of three New York hedge funds who would be cagey enough to think of this. I'm jealous as I wish I had thought of it first. It's also very legal. So the reasons why these markets have suddenly seen large volumes may be because of simple greed.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:19 AM | link