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Saturday, September 18, 2004

SOMETIMES I'M EMBARASSED TO LIVE IN CALIFORNIA    Free speech in the People's Republic of Berkeley. Thanks to reader Dan Good for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:26 PM | link  

HOW CAN YOU VOTE IN TWO WAYS AT ONCE    when you're not anywhere at all? ChicagoBoyz' Sylvain Galineau notes a peculiarity in Colorado's proposed "proportional voting" constitutional amendment.
(6) (c) THE ELECTION CERTIFICATION PROCESS REFERRED TO IN PARAGRAPH (b) OF THIS SUBSECTION SHALL APPLY TO THE BALLOTS CAST FOR PRESIDENTIAL TICKETS AT THE NOVEMBER 2, 2004 GENERAL ELECTION AND AT GENERAL ELECTIONS HELD AFTER 2004 AT WHICH PRESIDENTIAL TICKETS ARE ON THE STATEWIDE BALLOT.
In other words, a retro-active Constitutional amendment on the selection of presidential electors is to be voted on the day of the presidential election.

Far out.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:09 AM | link  

SLOGAN DROUGHT CONTINUES    Responding to desperate Democratic pleas for better Kerry slogans, blogger David Burge suggests:
Some Look at Things As They Are And Say, 'Why?' Others Look at Things As They Are Not And Say, 'Why Not?', And I Suppose A Few Might Look at Things As They Are Not, And Say 'Why?', and Vice-Versa, and So Forth, And One Might Be Tempted To Look at These People Looking at Things And Ask 'Who?' But This Would Not Be Constructive, Because The Important Thing To Realize Is That Some People Like To Look At Things, And This Is Precisely My Point
Thanks to reader Jameson Campaigne for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:06 AM | link  


Friday, September 17, 2004

DISCOVERING BEAUTIFUL ATROCITIES    Turns out that hilarious best-dressed bloggers list comes from a blog I hadn't heard of before, but will be visiting every day now: Beautiful Atrocities. Check it out -- funny and penetrating stuff, and the site has a really unique look-and-feel. Teddy Kennedy fans will be sure to appreciate this post.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:13 PM | link  

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A CONSPIRACY THEORY   
Here's my column today from SmartMoney.com, including a paragraph from my manuscript that the editors thought it wise to delete. See if you can guess which one it was.
See if you can guess which stock I'm talking about.

This stock topped out in early January at 75. It steadily declined all year, hitting bottom at 49 on Aug. 12. After that, it rallied magnificently. On Monday it was trading at 65.

Then something very strange happened.

Mid-day Monday this stock was attacked by sellers. The stock had been the subject of various scares and scandals in the past — but on this day there was no news to explain why it was being hit by wave after wave of selling, racking up its highest trading volume of the year. Within an hour the stock had been hammered almost all the way back to lows, trading as low as 49.6 at the worst of it, down 22.5% on the day.

Then, even more suddenly, the selling stopped. Within about a half hour the stock had recovered all the way back up to 63. It closed the day at 63.5, down a half point from the previous day's close.

But the story isn't quite over. The punch line is that by Thursday, the stock had climbed to as high as 70. Whoever did all that selling on Monday is looking pretty stupid.

Have you guessed? I'm not talking about a stock at all. I'm talking about our president, George W. Bush.

Specifically, I'm talking about the futures contracts on Bush's re-election probability that trade online at Tradesports.com. I've written about this exciting futures market many times here, starting in February.

To recap, here's how the Bush contracts work. When the election results are finalized, the contracts will end up either at 100 or zero — 100 if Bush wins, and zero if he loses. In the meantime, the contracts trade at whatever price the marketplace sets, just like any other futures contracts. When the Bush contract was trading at 75 in early January, that indicates the market is giving him a 75% chance of being re-elected. On Aug. 12, at the lows at 49, the market was giving him only a 49% chance of winning.

All year the markets have tracked the Bush contracts, like a duckling waddling behind its mother. After the Bush contract topped out at 75 in January, it was just a matter of days until the NASDAQ topped out, too. The S&P followed a couple weeks later. When the Bush contract made its lows for the year at 49 on Aug. 12, that was the same day that the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ made their lows, too. They've all been rising together ever since. We can argue about why, but clearly the stock market acts like it is hoping Bush gets re-elected.

So what happened on Monday to knock the Bush contract practically all the way back down to 49 in a single hour — and then why did it recover all its losses in just a half hour? We may never know for sure, but I've got a couple of pretty good ideas.

One possibility is a "speculative attack." That's what you call it when speculators swamp a market with buy or sell orders. A classic example is when George Soros massively shorted the British pound in 1992. The Bank of England spent billions trying to support the currency against Soros's onslaught. When it finally gave in, England was forced to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Soros earned more than a billion dollars on this attack, and became known as "the man who broke the Bank of England." He did something similar in 1997 against the Malaysia's currency, the ringgit, a move that precipitated what is now called "the Asian crisis."

It could be that someone was trying to do the same thing to the Bush contract. Beginning with my coverage of Tradesports' political contracts right here, the Bush contract has become a widely watched leading indicator of electoral trends. Every trader I know on Wall Street watches it — and hardly a day goes by now that it isn't mentioned in the media. What better way to throw a chill into George Bush's sudden surge of popularity over the last several weeks than to make it seem as though this leading indicator has violently reversed?

This is nothing but a wild conjecture, but could the perpetrator be Soros himself? He's got all the requisite experience, to be sure. And he's made no secret of the fact that he will spend tens of millions this election year to try to defeat President Bush. It has been reported that he has already poured more than $6 million into so-called "527 organizations" -- those supposedly independent advocacy groups that are sponsoring attack ads against both presidential candidates.

The chief executive of Dublin-based Tradesports, John Delaney, doesn't think it was a speculative attack. He told me, "We don't think it was an attempt to create a signaling effect. If it was, it was wholly a failure."

No question about that: It was a failure. After 12,000 contracts were sold in a single hour — an enormous volume for this tiny new market — prices returned to where they had originally been just a half hour later. And it didn't take a lot of volume to do it. The hundreds of regular small traders who regularly trade on Tradesports simply recognized a bargain, and quickly restored prices back where they belonged.

What else could explain it? Perhaps it's as simple as a guy walking into the sports betting parlor at the Mirage in Las Vegas, and plopping down $100,000 on Kerry. How would the casino hedge its bet? They'd lay it off on TradeSports. Assuming they quoted bad enough odds to the bettor, they could make a tidy riskless profit even by selling the Bush contract all the way down to 49.

Either way, this event stands as a remarkable testimonial to the robustness and resiliency of a brand new and still small marketplace. This was Tradesports' first big test — its "Black Monday" — and it came through with flying colors.

And it shows that small traders who really understand what stocks are worth don't have to let themselves get pushed around by a market bully. Do you ever think that stocks you own are being whacked around by the big hedge funds? Well, remember what happened to the Bush contract on Monday, and see it as an opportunity. When your stocks get out of line, just buy more and be patient.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:09 PM | link  

A MISSING ELLIPSIS    Andrew Sullivan doesn't tip his readers to deleted text here. What did he secretly cut out? Go here. The pettiness...

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:28 AM | link  


Thursday, September 16, 2004

OK, I SEE THE PATTERN NOW    Dan Rather's fake documents about George Bush's military service are okay, according to the New York Times, because according to a Wednesday story,
Memos on Bush Are Fake but Accurate...
It's just like Paul Krugman said about the lies in Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9-11":
"Fahrenheit 9/11" is a tendentious, flawed movie, but it tells essential truths...

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:45 PM | link  

OHHHH, CANADA...    Canada's socialized health care system -- the one that John Kerry wants to emulate in the US, is now officially an emergency. Here's a story from Reuters AlertNet, which bills itself as "alerting humanitarians to emergencies."
Canada often boasts its universal health care program shows it is more caring than the United States, but the system is creaking alarmingly, with long wait lists for treatment, and shortages of cash and doctors.

And far from criticizing the United States, some people are choosing to go south of the border to pay for operations in private hospitals -- institutions that are forbidden in Canada by the law that set up the publicly funded system.

Thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:13 PM | link  

THERE ARE TWO AMERICAS    Kerry supporters, and decent people.

Update [9/17/2004]... It's a stunt, according to Wonkette. A good one, I must say. Thanks to Dave Nadig for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:10 PM | link  

BEST DRESSED BLOGGERS: WE MAKE THE A-LIST    I'm mentioned on Wonkette today. Should I be flattered? Probably.
What All the Fashionable Bloggers Are Wearing This Year

This, according to Jonathan Klein, a former "60 Minutes" executive who last week told Fox News that "Bloggers have no checks and balances. ...(It's) a guy sitting in his living room in his pajamas." Well, that's not exactly right. And leave it to one of those barely-dressed "bloggers" to fact-check his ass and find out what all the major bloggers are really wearing...

• Millionaire socialist Katrina vanden Heuvel: Tin foil hat; pannier hoops, skirt and bodice of vintage peach jacquard silk with scatter beads & ribbon roses
• Donald Luskin: Krugman Truth Squad union suit, Anti-stalker GPS monitoring anklet
• Andrew Sullivan: White leather beaded wedding dress with matching jacket & Morticia train
• Josh Marshall: Milla Jovanovich unisex Joan of Arc mail suit with flattering shoulder pads & Teflon jodhpurs

Thanks to PunditReview for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 4:17 PM | link  


Wednesday, September 15, 2004

TIMESWOMEN    Firmly strap on your barfbag and check out this interactive discussion "about women, the presidency and the election" (and book promotion) with Maureen Dowd and Gail Collins. Here's some of Gail's ageless wisdom:
The bitter truth is that there are very, very few men practicing the art of politics on a national level who cause women to fantasize about heavy petting.
And here's Dowd:
The more I think about it, the more I think men may be biologically unsuited to hold high public office.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:51 PM | link  

YOUR APPLICATION IS REJECTED    A friend who prefers anonymity just copied me on this letter he sent to John Kerry. Other than the first word, I'm with him all the way.
Honorable John F. Kerry
US Senator
Boston, MA

Dear Senator Kerry:

I read with interest in the Wall Street Journal today, your appeal to the American people to name you to the most important CEO job in the US. There was one glaring omission; credentials that would qualify you for the job. Since you didn’t include them in your application letter, I have searched your web site, the internet including Boston newspaper archives and the Congressional record. I found no evidence of prior CEO experience. It was hard to find even a record of a minor supervisory role other than commanding a few sailors on a Swift Boat, an executive position with an anti-military group, a practicing attorney supervising paralegals and a secretary, Lt. Governor of Massachusetts under Governor Dukakis and a US Senator with a small staff. I’m curious to know how any or all of this experience would equip you for a CEO position.

In my experience as a former CEO and recruiter of several CEOs for various companies, the most important qualifying factor was prior CEO experience . Direct hands on management of large programs and large numbers of people is an important prerequisite. Beyond these requirements are integrity, clear thinking and decisiveness and a sense of fairness. From what I have learned about you from published reports and observation from afar, no evidence has surfaced that you possess any of these qualities. It is one thing to provide advice or to act as an advisor but it is quite another to have the fortitude to make difficult decisions particularly when they might be initially deemed unpopular. This is the true essence of leadership. I’m afraid our shareholders would revolt against the Board if we announced you were under consideration.

My suggestion is that you first gain the requisite CEO experience with a Boston based startup or even as Governor of a small state and work your way up. I will keep your resume on file in case you care to update it some years in the future with additional appropriate experience.
Update [9/16/2004]... Reader Chris Murdoch adds:
Kerry says he should be hired as CEO of the USA. I understand that he has never released a transcript of his undergraduate performance at Yale. George W. Bush did release his transcript. Few companies would consider hiring Kerry for an entry-level position unless he provided a transcript.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:53 PM | link  

KERRY LET MOHAMMED ATTA SLIP THROUGH    From reader Jameson Campaigne:
In a post Tuesday, you asked, "Hey, why not suggest that Kerry claim he would have arrested Mohammed Atta on September 10, 2001?"

He certainly had the opportunity to do so. His office was given specific warning four moths ahead of time of the security problem at Boston's Logan airport, but his staff blew off the experts who tried (several times) to see him, saying "you are not a constituent." This is all detailed in the last chapter of Who Is John Kerry? available at www.conservative.org as a download or for $3.95 at 800-426-1357 (the American Conservative Union, on whose board I serve).


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:23 PM | link  

"I'M NOT AN ECONOMIST, BUT...    ...I'm smarter than John Kerry's economists." That's what I glean from this letter from reader Neal Phenes:
I am not an economist but here is my short essay on Kerry's Wall Street Journal piece summarizing his Economic Plan.

He will be "better for business" by rolling back the tax cuts given by Bush to $200,000 or more income earners. These are the entrepreneurs who start small businesses and employ most American workers. These increased taxes will somehow cut the deficit.

He offers no spending cuts though he wants the line item veto to stop any spending that exceeds the rate of inflation. How about just vetoing the bill even if it falls below that cost of living increase?

He will take care of the "troublesome and unsustainable development" of the trade deficit. But he does not explain why it is so and why it is so bad.

He will seek a "level playing field" and will increase the lawsuits filed in the WTO filed against those foreigners who breach the rules of this level playing field. Sounds like major protectionism. Will that increase jobs? Really? It will increase lawyers jobs. Kerry criticizes Bush for only bringing one WTO action to every 3 brought by Clinton. I would prefer none.

He offers permanent tax cuts for 98% of all Americans. Who are the 2% who will pay? Oh yeah, the small business owners.

Then there are the many tax credit gimmicks much like Bush proposed in his Convention speech. I expect Kerry will actually do these things. Bush just talks about them but then doesn't do it. I'll take Bush's approach.

He will incentive students to study math and science in college. I think they need to learn it in grade school and high school first.

He proposes a "three strikes and you are out" rule against plaintiff attorneys. I guess this is the same kind of wink-wink proposal as the Bush kinds mentioned above. How will the large punitive damage awards be cut when all of his judges will be ex-plaintiff attorneys? He will push for non-binding mediation in med mal cases. Non-binding sounds real tough.

But give Kerry credit. He brought it to the Wall Street Journal for our assessment.


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:01 PM | link  

IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE MEANING OF "ARE" IS    Headline in today's New York Times:
Memos on Bush Are Fake but Accurate, Typist Says
Thanks to reader Daniel Miller for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:59 PM | link  

ON ORACLE/PEOPLESOFT   I'm quoted in the Bay Area's Contra Costa Times:
Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics LLC in Menlo Park, says he welcomes the chance to unload his shares.

"Craig Conway is not going to be able to hide behind the skirts of antitrust law," he said. "(Conway) is going to have to come to the negotiating table and make the best deal he can for shareholders."


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:55 PM | link  

KERRY FINALLY REVEALS HIS TRUE ECONOMIC AGENDA    From John Kerry's op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal:
I would promote private-sector innovation policies, including the elimination of capital gains for long-term investments in small business start-ups.
Yep. He really said that. Thanks to reader David Riggs for the link.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:29 PM | link  


Tuesday, September 14, 2004

NOW HERE'S AN INSIGHT!    James Crystal does it again.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:40 PM | link  

KRUGMAN'S CODEPENDENCY    Why does Paul Krugman give such bad campaign advice to John Kerry? Does he want him to lose? Keith Burgess-Jackson psychoanalyzes Krugman and discovers the secret:
"But deep down, Krugman won't mind. It will give him four more years to do what he does best: spew hatred."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:26 PM | link  

BUSH SHRUGS?    Bad enough when one of the New York Times' op-ed smear artists chops up a quotation to change its meaning and drop its context -- but here's Paul Krugman doing it to the Times itself:
When a Times reporter asked Mr. Bush about North Korea's ongoing nuclear program, "he opened his palms and shrugged."
Krugman isolates this description of Bush's body language as though it were Bush's sole response. In the Times' August 27 interview with Bush, the president went on to say:
He said he would continue diplomatic pressure -- using China to pressure the North and Europe to pressure Iran -- and gave no hint that his patience was limited or that at some point he might consider pre-emptive military action.

"I'm confident that over time this will work -- I certainly hope it does," he said of the diplomatic approach.

Hmmmm. Isn't that the kind of multilateral diplomatic approach that the Times prefers? Be that as it may, Bush certainly did more than shrug.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:08 AM | link  

THE KERRY CAMPAIGN, KRUGMAN STYLE    Here's Paul Krugman's advice to candidate Kerry: run by claiming what he woulda coulda shoulda done in Iraq.
Mr. Kerry can argue that he wouldn't have overruled the commanders who had wanted to keep the pressure on Al Qaeda, or dismissed warnings from former Gen. Eric Shinseki, then the Army's chief of staff, that peacekeeping would require a large force. He wouldn't have ignored General Conway's warnings about the dangers of storming into Falluja, or overruled his protests about calling off that assault halfway through.
Hey, why not suggest that Kerry claim he would have arrested Mohammed Atta on September 10, 2001?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:53 AM | link  


Monday, September 13, 2004

TIMES SHOWS BIAS IN STORY ON BIAS    Here's a serious empirical study of potential partisan bias in newspaper coverage of economic news, by Kevin Hassett and John Lott of the American Enterprise Institute (thanks to reader Vivek Rao for the link to their paper). Analyzing headlines for positive and negative reaction to release of GDP, unemployment, retail sales and capital goods numbers -- and controlling for the strength or weakness of the economy at the time -- Hassett and Lott find robust statistical evidence that supports a slant toward more negative treatment when Republicans are in power than when Democrats are.

So how does the New York Times handle the release of the study? With a snide story by Eduardo Porter -- exactly one of the biased economics reporters the study is talking about (thanks to reader Jill Olson for the link). Less than half the story is given to explaining the study. The rest is dirt on the authors that Porter dug up, and a line-up of "experts" tearing the story down -- every single one of which is somehow Democratically biased, ranging from former Clinton appointees to leftist attack dog economist Brad DeLong. Porter ends the story with a comment from DeLong -- giving him the last word, as it were. And it's nothing but pure nastiness, devoid of any substantive economic thought. Here it is:

"To even base a story on Lott's work at this point in time is to demonstrate a pronounced bias toward right-wing hacks," said Brad DeLong, a liberal-leaning economist at the University of California at Berkeley.

I wonder exactly what Jabba The Economist objects to here? Is it that Lott is right-wing, or that he is a hack, or both? Would a "left-wing hack" be better person for the Times to base a story on? Well, that is exactly what they have done, by giving DeLong -- an academic competitor of the authors -- a soapbox from which to shout his character assassination? And remember, Hassett and Lott are no ordinary competitors of DeLong. DeLong has a strong revenge motive when it comes to Hassett -- something which  the Times reporter on this story was surely too ignorant to know, and DeLong was surely too much a hack to confess.

DeLong and Lawrence Summers co-authored "Equipment Spending and Economic Growth" in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 1991, and "Equipment Spending and Economic Growth: How Strong is the Nexus?" in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity in 1992. The papers were presentations of an empirical study showing higher social returns to capital equipment investment than would be predicted by the classic Solow growth model. But only a year later, "Reassessing the Social Returns to Equipment Investment," an NBER Working Paper by Hassett, Alan J. Auerbach and Stephen D. Oliner, revealed that DeLong and Summers were just flat-out wrong, and for the most embarrassing of reasons: their results fell apart with the removal of Botswana from their data set:

"DeLong and Summers' own data fail to reject the Solow model for the OECD countries. The same is true even for their full sample of quite heterogeneous nations if we exclude just one country (Botswana). These results clearly refute DeLong and Summers' claim to have uncovered robust evidence of uniformly high social returns to equipment investment."

Hassett's paper was published in 1994 in the Quarterly Journal of Economics -- the same Harvard-sponsored journal that had published the original erroneous DeLong/Summers work. After this embarrassing debacle, Teflon-coated Summers managed to go on with his career, eventually becoming Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, and then president of Harvard. But has Professor DeLong ever written another paper accepted by a refereed scholarly economics journal? He'll have to tell me if he has. I'd check his online CV, but it has not always proven to be entirely accurate.

Update... Reader Rohit Dewan writes:

That the NYT would even print a story about a study like this might be an encouraging sign -- if the story were not so tragically flawed.

Chris Carroll -- the most heavily quoted economist in this story -- was my prof at JHU, he served on Clinton's CEA, which the NYT discloses, but they do not disclose that he also worked for the Gore campaign during the Florida recount and that his thesis advisor at MIT was none other than the NYT's own Paul Krugman! Lets just say that this guy assigned a lot of Krugman to read in class. And then we get this graf:

"While the researchers of the American Enterprise Institute claim to expose the political bias of the reporting, Mr. Carroll said, it was unlikely that they succeeded in stripping out other factors. He said the reporting of economic statistics depended on broad perceptions of the state of the economy, which are influenced by many variables. The fact that the economy did better under Mr. Clinton than either of the Bushes probably affected the coverage more than the researchers allowed for."
So, Prof. Chris thinks that the reporting of economic statistics is influenced by "broad perceptions of the state of the economy"- isn't that exactly what you would expect the reporting of economic statistics to influence (not the other way around)- otherwise, if the reporting is influenced by the reporters own perception of the state of the economy, isn't that, by definition, pre-judgement or prejudice (or bias)?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:10 AM | link  


Sunday, September 12, 2004

PATE SPREADS THE VIRUS    The Department of Injustice is undeterred by its loss in court last week in the Oracle/Peoplesoft case. Our antitrust guru Skip Oliva points to a speech given in Tokyo by the DOiJ's addle-pated antitrust chief R. Hewitt Pate on the "globalization of antitrust law." Oliva says, "every developing country needs lawyers with arbitrary power over the economy."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:39 PM | link  

MSM    James Crystal, dancing on the grave of the self-destructing media establishment:
MSM = Main Stream Media plucked the following---

What word does the acronym, MSM, call to mind?

MUSEUM!

But of course! That's what the MSM has become, a storehouse for DEAD ideas!

The more MUSEUM, the more you don't!


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:36 PM | link  

"PUBLIC EDITOR" BLAMES "PUBLIC" ON SWIFT BOATS    New York Times public figleaf Dan Okrent is back from vacation, and has finally weighed in on the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth matter. Having read most of the Times' coverage of the matter while on vacation, Okrent concludes:
From what The Times's news coverage told me, official records contradict the central charges leveled in the ads. However, it is not accurate to say, as Senator Kerry has, that he spent Christmas 1968 in Cambodia.

If my summary is wrong, The Times erred. If it's accurate, the paper did a fine job. If my description offends you because you dislike Kerry, or because you think the extent of The Times's Swift Boat coverage lent credence to false charges, this tells me more about you than it does about The Times.

So what has Okrent really told us? If the Times is wrong, it "erred." The issue of bias behind the paper's having "erred" is not even mentioned as a possibility. And if you -- the "public," for which Okrent is putatively the "public editor" -- feel differently about it, then tough luck -- it's your fault. If you "dislike Kerry," that's all Okrent needs to know to investigate no further any claim you may make. Any bias problem is yours, not the Times'.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:58 PM | link