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Tuesday, July 1
Unindicted co-counterconspirator-in-chief Donald Luskin will appear on CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Don will be talking about -- you guessed it -- politics, the economy, and the market.

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Join us as we discover, document, expose and challenge the bad people, the bad institutions and the bad ideas that stand in the way of wealth creation -- and show you how to fight back!

Friday, July 11, 2003

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UN-FACT OF THE DAY: THE TIMES' TRILLION DOLLAR CORRECTION   
I faulted the Wall Street Journal for its coverage of Microsoft's plan to discontinue granting stock options (see "Journal Out of the Money on Microsoft's Options" [7/10/2003]). The New York Times' coverage seemed somewhat less politicized to me... maybe things are getting a little better on 43rd Street after all, at least on the news pages. But then take a look at this Times correction! Can't these guys get anything right?
"A front-page article yesterday about the decision by Microsoft to stop giving stock options to employees misstated the date and price of the peak in the company's shares. The stock, which closed on Tuesday at $27.70, peaked in December 1999, not March 1999. The value of the stock at its peak, adjusted to take account of splits, was $59.56, not $178."
In market capitalization terms, that error overestimated the value of Microsoft by $1.2 trillion.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:54 AM | link   

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A QUARTER MILLION DOLLAR BUFFETT BUFFET   
Maybe we are in a new bubble. Or maybe there are just a lot of bubble-heads out there. Reader Max Ferri alerted me to the alarming fact that someone just paid $250,000 on Ebay for the privilege of dining with Warren Buffett. It's a charity deal, with proceeds going to the Glide Foundation. No, that's not a lobbying group for air-freshener manufacturers. It's a San Francisco based charity that "represents a deeply held belief that people of every race, age, ethnicity, religious belief, gender, and sexual orientation have the right to unconditional love and acceptance." Of course the love you'll get at that lunch with Buffett is conditioned on the $250,000 check clearing -- and is presumably a better meal than the ones that Glide doles out. One only wonders whether Buffett will pick up the tab for the meal.

What will the lucky winner be able to talk to Buffett about over non-soup kitchen soup? Surely a mutual interest in charity will be a starting point. Then the conversation can move to why the wealthy should be taxed disproportionately so that the government can have a monopoly on charity, and be the one to decide whether the Glide Foundation or African AIDS victims get your money as opposed to the Salvation Army. Or we could talk about how, when you die, the government should tax away half your estate (on which you've already paid taxes all the while) so that your children won't be able to make the kinds of donations you managed to make. Or we could talk about how stock options just make those pesky workers greedy for the upside while ignoring the downside, while Microsoft's new non-option program is being reported in the press as being all about relieving employees of the downside risk of options -- that should be a good topic. Just be sure to order Coke with the meal. Warren's unconditional love and acceptance would be withdrawn if you ordered Pepsi.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:02 AM | link   


Wednesday, July 09, 2003

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JOURNAL OUT OF THE MONEY ON MICROSOFT'S OPTIONS   
The financial press is grave-dancing on Microsoft's decision to no longer award stock options to employees -- and instead to award shares of stock itself.

A Wall Street Journal column by Jessie Eisenger crows "Microsoft, once the bullying monopolist, is trying to become a good corporate citizen." A front pager by Robert Guth and Joanne Lublin declares,

"The golden age of stock options is over... The company's decision comes amid mounting pressures on stock options, long a pay perk for senior executives. More recently companies began doling them out to rank-and-file employees, making them an iconic trapping of wealth during the boom of the 1990s."

Why does it make a company a "good corporate citizen" to not grant stock options? Dow Jones & Company, the publisher of the Wall Street Journal, grants them (although the column does not disclose that). Is Mother Dow a "bad corporate citizen?"

Since when are options awarded as compensation for the time and talent of senior executives a mere "pay perk?" I assume Dow Jones CEO Peter R. Kann doesn't see it that way (and the story neglects to mention that Microsoft founders Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer have never once received options, perks or not). Why does compensating rank-and-file employees with option -- the same way as executives -- constitute "doling them out"? Perhaps Mr. Guth and Ms. Lublin don't feel the quality of work like this entitles them to anything more than their meager salaries, and would see options granted to them as mere charity. And how is it that the reward for successful efforts and patient risk-bearing is merely an "iconic trapping"? Are Mr. Guth and Ms. Lublin just a teensy bit envious?

Microsoft also announced that it will henceforth record the expense of its existing stock options on its income statement. In the past, like the vast majority of companies, it has instead only disclosed the expense in a pro forma table in the notes to the financial statement. But for the Journal, that makes Microsoft a "holdout." Well, then Dow Jones & Company is a "holdout" too. It doesn't record stock option expense on its income statement (but the story neglects to mention that).

So why is Microsoft cutting off the "pay perk" and stopping "doling them out" if not to be a "good corporate citizen"? Simple -- it's trying to optimize the way it rewards its investors and pays its employees in light of the new tax law that sharply reduces the tax on dividends. In a new world where its suddenly tax-smart for Microsoft to start paying a big dividend -- and maybe even pay out some or all of its $46 billion cash hoard -- options just don't make sense anymore (because the value of options is eroded whenever a company pays out a dividend). The answer: make option-holders into stockholders. The Journal story never even mentions this consideration.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:10 PM | link   

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A BLAST AT KRUGMAN FROM THE PAST   
Bruce Bartlett sends us a golden oldie... it's a paper he wrote for the Cato Institute just over a decade ago, in which he takes apart erroneous claims in the New York Times that the wealthiest Americans captured the vast majority of after-tax income in the 1980s (the rationale offered to justify Clinton's 1993 tax increases). The claims were based on research by -- yes! -- Paul Krugman! Bartlett points out that the Times distorted Krugman's research, but that the research was itself based on computational and conceptual errors. Some things just never go out of style...

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 2:09 PM | link   


Tuesday, July 08, 2003

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GRASS-ROOTS COUNTER-CONSPIRACY   
Jason Byars -- a reader of my National Review Online "Krugman Truth Squad" columns -- has really gotten into the counter-conspiratorial spirit. He noticed that Jay Bookman repeated a Paul Krugman lie in a column for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on July 3 -- so Byars took the law into is own hands and held Bookman accountable for it.

In "GOP Ignites Liberal Flame", Bookman repeats an egregiously out-of-context quote from Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform that Krugman used in his June 6 New York Times column -- "Bipartisanship is another name for date rape" -- making it sound as though congressional Republicans intended to pursue a scorched earth policy against their Democrat colleagues. As I explained in a post on June 6, Norquist was quoting Dick Armey from several years ago, when Armey was complaining about the Democrats' scorched earth tactics. By the time Krugman first cited this quote, the Washington Post had already published a correction about its own out-of-context citation of it!

Here's the thread of e-mails between Byars and Bookman. As Byars politely says, Bookman's response is "inadequate."


From: Jason Byars
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 8:00 AM
To: Jay Bookman
Subject: 7/3/02 column

Mr. Bookman:

I take exception to your citation of a quote by Grover Norquist in your column of July 3, 2003. The quote you cite was taken out of context by more than one newspaper over several weeks ago, and subsequent corrections have been issued. I offer the following excerpt from a column written by Donald Luskin regarding Paul Krugman's use of the very same quote for your consideration.

...[lengthy excerpt]...

I am quite sure that the subject and theme of your column would not have been greatly affected had the quote been omitted altogether. And even though I do not agree with much of what you write, my feathers are rarely ruffled. However, that does not absolve you of your responsibility as a journalist to be thorough in your fact-checking and to parrot Paul Krugman as little as possible.

Thanks for your consideration.


From: Jay Bookman
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 9:36 AM
To: Jason Byars
Subject: Re: 7/3/02 column

I didn't get the quote from Krugman, but from AP coverage.


From: Jason Byars
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003  9:51 AM
To: Jay Bookman
Subject: 7/3/02 column

Well perhaps a correction, or at least a clarification, is in order for your live talk today. Your premise may very well be dead on, but I hardly think the quote you cite strengthens your argument as you intend it to do, especially in light of its true context. The Washington Post clarified that a month ago...

Thank you very much for your response.


From: Jay Bookman
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 9:57 AM
To: Jason Byars
Subject: RE: 7/3/02 column

I don't think it's so. Does Norquist in any way dispute the first part of that quote?


From: Jason Byars
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 10:05 AM
To: Jay Bookman
Subject: 7/3/02 column

I wouldn't know. But the second part, which he did indeed dispute, isn't nearly as juicy without the symbolism of date rape. Without those two words, I dare say it might not have made your column.

You gotta understand I could care less. I am a conservative, but I also know your job is to write your opinion and, to a certain extent, do so in a manner that elicits response. I accept that and read your column nonetheless. You do yourself a disservice by discounting the context of the quote because it makes fair-minded people like me, who recognize that reasonable people can disagree, take your columns a little less seriously.

That said, it's your column, not mine...

Also, that sounds to me like saying, "Water is wet, and the sky is green when I look at it through these green lenses." I wouldn't dispute the first part, but point-of-view is the essence of the second.


From: Jay Bookman
Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2003 10:10 AM
To: Jason Byars
Subject: RE: 7/3/02 column

I honestly don't think that Norquist's "explanation" changes it. The fact it wasn't original with him doesn't change the fact that he used it to explain where he was coming from. I do strive scrupulously to be fair, but I'm not getting this one.

Correction 7/8/03: A reader pointed out that in the original posting of this commentary I had mistakenly typed the name of Tom Delay instead of Dick Armey. It has been corrected in the text above.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:04 PM | link   


Monday, July 07, 2003

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SUMMER READING   
I'm back from another terrific 4th of July week at The Home Ranch -- the fabulous Relais & Chateaux dude ranch in Clark, Colorado -- riding a former wild mustang called Nevada. And eating. It was the first time in a decade that I didn't check email and had the cell phone turned off for a whole week. Luckily, it seems the world made it easy for me. Bloomberg's Caroline Baum notes on our Letters Page that Paul Krugman cooperated by not writing any New York Times columns last week. Ever on the alert for economic conspiracies, she says, "It's looking mighty suspicious that you and Herr Doktorprofessor are taking vacation at same time. I suspect your families are on the beach together somewhere!" Well, it's nothing like that -- but we did manage to work out a deal. He agreed not to write any columns for a week, and I agreed not to rip him a new one for a week. Fair all around.

Order now from Amazon!So no ripping, and lots of riding. And lots of summer reading to pass along to co-counter-conspirators. First, I'm delighted to have found a book good enough to add to our Books and Media page. It's something I've been seeking for quite a while, in response to many requests from readers -- a good college-level introductory economics principles textbook. The Economic Way of Thinking by the late Paul T. Heyne with Peter J. Boettke and David L. Prychitko fills the bill. It is truly a principles book -- thinking of economics not as a set of institutional solutions, but (as the book's title implies) a set of philosophical tools for thinking rationally about choices in organizing individual and collective human activity. It almost entirely avoids political and social preconceptions about how such choices should be applied in actual institutions and policies. When it talks about institutions and policies at all, it does so with a thoroughgoing skepticism and a deep respect for the law of unintended consequences. Suffice it to say that this book will never be used in any Ivy League econ courses. This is great stuff. Get it!

I also read Economics and Its Enemies: Two Centuries of Anti-Economics, a sweeping survey of critiques of economics by William Coleman, an econ professor at (believe it or not) the University of Tasmania. Coleman's purpose is, unashamedly, to defend economics from its critics (of whom Paul Heyne, the author of the first book, is definitely one). He does his best work taking on the most superficial critics -- the ones who fault economics for being "too rational," "too selfish," and "too anti-environmental." He's less effective in taking on -- or even engaging -- deeper and more trenchant criticism, such as that economics is "too abstract" and "too mathematical." He waves away the critique that economics has no real-world predictive value -- and so entirely avoids the issue that political policies derived from economic theory may not be effective. He spends a great deal of energy toppling critics who find economics "too liberal" or "too conservative," but he fails almost entirely to even acknowledge the issue that I spend the most time on here -- the critique that economics has been "weaponized" as a statist political tool. He speaks at length of the Stalin era in the former USSR in which economics was suppressed and economists were persecuted, and economic policy was taken up entirely by politicians and engineers. That was an era both of horrors, and of horrible economic policy. Yet he doesn't talk about the horrible economic policies that were put in place in other countries when card-carrying economists were making policy. Save your money on this one.

Order now from Amazon!On a lighter note -- and just so you won't think I spend all my spare time reading economics texts -- I highly recommend Positively Fifth Street, by James McManus. It's the amazing story of a Chicago academic who goes to Las Vegas to cover Binion's World Series of Poker for Harpers -- and ends up almost winning it. It's interwoven with an astonishing story of murder, sex, corruption and internecine warfare in the Binion family, one episode of which, en passant, offers a most interesting paradigm for thinking about monetary policy (okay, I do spend all my spare time reading economics textbooks). At one point one of the Binion heirs orders the manufacture of $125 million in large-denomination poker chips -- and the implication is that it was for some purpose other than simply providing a medium for gambling in the casino. Ostensibly, chips in circulation -- which are as good as cash in Las Vegas -- are backed by customer money or debt on deposit with the issuing casino, in what amounts to a "currency board." But, of course, the casino could simply make as many chips as it wants, and its executives can spend them however they wish -- much as central banks can print as much money as they want, and governments can spend it however they wish. This miniaturized example of money issuance in action strips the process of all its grand institutional trappings, and allows you to see money for what it really is -- chips in circulation -- and the Fed for what it is -- a casino. Economics microcosms aside, this is an outstanding summer read -- go for it!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:22 PM | link   


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