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Saturday, March 01, 2003

ECONO-CREDENTIALISM MADNESS!    It grows and spreads on our letters page!

Bruce Bartlett says that even uber-economist Alan Greenspan only has an honorary doctorate in economics.

And my informant "Irrational Exuberance" says that the Democrats' econo-God Robert Rubin doesn't have the "traditional" sheepskin either.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:00 AM | link   


Friday, February 28, 2003

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INTELLECTUAL SOLVENCY AT RISK   
Today's New York Times column from former Enron consultant Paul Krugman contains a paragraph that represents a new low for Krugman's signature style of flippant malice. Having asserted that the Bush administration is uninterested in helping the economy (which of course it is desperately interested in doing, even if for no more noble other reason than to get re-elected), Krugman asks a rhetorical question permitting him to explain why:

"Why is the administration so uninterested in helping the economy? Here's my theory: The depressed state of the economy provides a convenient if bogus rationale for the huge, extremely irresponsible long-run tax cuts that, after Iraq, constitute this administration's principal obsession. To do anything else to help the economy would suggest that it's possible to create jobs now without putting the country's future solvency at risk — and that's not a message this administration wants to convey."

Let me get this straight. The administration wants to not help the economy because it doesn't want to convey a message? And that message is that "it's possible to create jobs now without putting the country's future solvency at risk"? Why would the administration not want to send that message so much that it would fail to help the economy in order to avoid sending it.

Is Krugman saying that the administration actually wants to put the country's future solvency at risk? What possible political or other interest would be served by that?

Is that really a message that Paul Krugman wants to convey? Is that really a message that the New York Times wants to squander precious op-ed real estate -- and precious credibility -- on?

As Krugman himself is so fond of saying, "I've reported. Now you decide."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:47 AM | link   

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TAPPED UNDERCUTS KUTTNER   
Yesterday I whacked Tapped -- the weblog of The American Prospect -- for its nasty snub of some of the economists who signed a statement supporting the Bush administration's proposed tax-cuts. According to the arbiters of economics credentials at Tapped, these guys are fakes because they don't have Ph.D. degrees in economics. Tapped says "If the White House wants to play a credentialing game to even out the P.R. battle, it won't do to pad out their list of 'economists' with assorted businessmen, investment bankers, high-rolling GOP donors, Wall Street analysts, political hacks, policy entrepreneurs..."

That last expression -- policy entrepreneurs -- now that triggers certain memories... Ah, yes...! That expression cropped up in an article in the September-October 1996 issue of the American Prospect -- the magazine that runs Tapped -- by its founder and co-editor Robert Kuttner. In that article, Kuttner excoriated Paul Krugman -- that's right... small world isn't it? -- for (among many other things) Krugman's attacks on "Lester Thurow, Robert Reich, and Laura Tyson, whom he dismisses as pseudo-economists and mere 'policy entrepreneurs.' On close examination, his disdain is often less about serious policy differences than about membership in the right disciplinary club."

You see, the problem is that, to Krugman, Kuttner is just a "mere 'policy entrepreneur'" too, because Kuttner doesn't have a Ph.D. -- at least not a real one, and not in economics. And either does Robert Reich -- Kuttner's close friend and co-founder at The American Prospect (as well as Secretary of Labor under Clinton).

There's simply no question but that Kuttner holds himself out publicly as an economist (and by any reasonable definition, he is an economist). His bio on the Prospect site says he writes articles "often focusing on domestic and international economic policy" and that he "was the longtime economics editor of The New Republic." It lists his five books, four of which are on economics. And Kuttner writes for the Economic Viewpoint column of Business Week, whose editor said of him and his fellow columnists, "Covering economics is an important mission, and we know that you, our readers, are counting on us to maintain an honorable tradition."

Tradition? What a choice of words! According to Tapped, "traditionally, you don't get to call yourself an economist without that sheepskin."

Kuttner's Prospect bio makes it fairly clear that he doesn't have that traditional sheepskin. "He was educated at Oberlin College, the University of California at Berkeley and the London School of Economics. He has an honorary doctorate from Swarthmore College." His bio at the Leigh Speakers Bureau is even plainer: "Kuttner studied at the London School of Economics and received degrees from Oberlin College and the University of California at Berkeley." Kuttner's office didn't return my call asking for confirmation.

Yep -- Tapped sure embarrassed the boss by lumping him in with the political hacks and the policy entrepreneurs. And what's so hilarious about it is that Kuttner has gone to such lengths to defend the sheepskin-free zone at The American Prospect from Krugman's credentialist vision, which he describes as "a Manichaean world in which there are two kinds of economists--'the professors and the policy entrepreneurs.'" Well, at least Krugman admits there are two kinds of economists -- Tapped will only let one kind past the velvet ropes.

It's too bad that the loose cannons at Tapped have given Krugman the satisfaction of seeing Kuttner's own staff take Krugman's side. Kuttner's article on Krugman was an extraordinarily powerful and effective debunking, one of the best I've ever read and one of the earliest -- it predicted brilliantly what would happen to Krugman as he sank deeper and deeper into media-whoredom. And is sparked a deeply acrimonious debate between the two men.

First came a splendid counterstroke from Krugman in Slate, in which he gave Kuttner and Reich and all the other uncredentialed economists the snub of all snubs, delivered with a typically Krugmanian devastating metaphor:

"...there are people like Kuttner, Jeff Faux of the Economic Policy Institute, and Labor Secretary Robert Reich. Some members of this faction have held university appointments. But most of them lack academic credentials and, more important, they are basically hostile to the kind of economics on which such credentials are based.

"A strong desire to make economics less like a science and more like literary criticism is a surprisingly common attribute of anti-academic writers on the subject. ...Academic economics, the stuff that is in the textbooks, is largely based on mathematical reasoning. ...Kuttner and [James K.] Galbraith know that the quantitative, algebraic reasoning that lies behind modern economics is very difficult to challenge on its own ground. To oppose it they must invoke alternative standards of intellectual authority and legitimacy. In effect, they are saying, 'You have Paul Samuelson on your team? Well, we've got Jacques Derrida on ours.'"

That was followed by a Kuttner/Krugman debate in the next issue of The American Prospect. It was pretty silly stuff, with the battlin' liberals slugging it out over such defining issues as which one of them was most disdained by the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal. But I'd say Kuttner got the best of it, especially when it came to defending non-academic economists:

"Krugman insists that people like me are suspect because we practice economics without a license. Yet Krugman thinks nothing of practicing political science without a license (not to mention practicing journalism without reporting). There is a good reason why economics used be called political economy. Nearly all the difficult economic issues are not just questions of the efficient allocation of scarce resources by the price system in an institutional vacuum, but profoundly political issues involving property rights, ground rules, and strategies to deal with market failures that can only be settled by recourse to values and to politics."

It's good reading, even if having these two liberals slug it out is pretty much like putting a mirror in a little bowl containing a single Siamese fighting fish. I guess it's a case of what Freud called "the narcissism of small differences." And when it gets to these guys -- especially Krugman and Reich -- those differences can get downright Lilliputian.

Thanks to Dave Nadig and Mike Lion for invaluable research help.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:10 AM | link   


Thursday, February 27, 2003

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CUT THE CRAP, TAPPED!   
Tapped -- the weblog of The American Prospect -- has taken it upon itself to invent its own definition of what an economist is -- and has set out to prove that a handful of the 250 economists who signed a statement supporting President Bush's tax-cut proposal aren't really economists (just because they don't conform to Tapped's definition). Oh, the scandal! The stench of corruption that stinks to heaven! To think that the Bush administration would stoop so low as to deceive the American pee-pul that these fakes are jen-you-wine economists when they don't conform to Tapped's definition... it's a sad, sad day for this once-great republic.

Tapped's definition? You have to have a Ph.D. in economics. Tapped says, "traditionally, you don't get to call yourself an economist without that sheepskin." And just what tradition is that? If it's any tradition at all, it's only one upheld principally by people with Ph.D.'s in economics, people like Brad DeLong who like to pretend that you have to be a member of their guild before you can hang out your shingle.

So you have to have a Ph.D. in economics... that means, that among the people who signed the statement, Tapped disqualifies Emile J. Brinkmann of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America because his Ph.D. is in finance, not economics. Tapped discards L. Jackson Brown of the American Dental Association, even though he is enough of an economist to have been a speaker at last September's national meeting of the National Association for Business Economists. And Tapped tosses Lawrence Kudlow overboard as someone who "writes a lot of funny stuff on National Review, but he's not an economist, either." Oh yeah? According to a 2002 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Kudlow has the best economic forecasting record of all economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal since 1986! Never mind that... on down the list of 24 econo-rejects -- all stuffed into Tapped's trash compactor just because they don't have that sheepskin, no matter what their other qualifications as economists may be.

I signed the statement -- and Tapped even dismisses moi, saying "Donald L. Luskin of Trend Macrolytics, LLC, has a lot more money than Tapped, but spent a lot less time in school -- his bio brags that he dropped out of college after his first year." I'm not sure how Tapped determined how much money I've got, but it's true that I dropped out of Yale without so much as a BA in lesbian studies -- although I defy anyone to interpret my bio as bragging about it. Nevertheless, while Tapped may not qualify me as an economist, some of America's largest and most profitable hedge funds, mutual funds and investment banks pay me big bucks for being one. And these are the kind of guys who don't pay unless it's for real.

So let's cut the crap, Tapped, and get real. You don't need a Ph.D. in economics to be an economist. You don't even need a Ph.D. in economics to win the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. 1994's Nobel laureate, John Nash, took his Ph.D. in mathematics (not even finance, like poor Emile Brinkmann). So, Tapped -- is John Nash an economist or isn't he? If he's not, then your definition is meaningless. If he is, then your definition is just plain wrong. When someone claims that all swans are white, all you have to prove him wrong is find one black one -- and Nash is it.

If Tapped truly must cling to this silly definition of economist -- one that makes it so convenient to Google your way to dirt-dishing your partisan opponents -- then let Tapped apply the same definition to the other statement signed by people -- also held out as economists -- who oppose the Bush plan. I took a quick look at the list of them. There are plenty who aren't affiliated with Universities -- and scandal of scandals! -- some of them may not have their Ph.D.'s in economics. So get Googling, Tapped! There's a black swan or two out there waiting for you, swimming among the Democrats!

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:07 AM | link   


Wednesday, February 26, 2003

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UN-FACT OF THE DAY: THE TIMES ADMITS IT "EXCEEDED THE FACTS"   
The New York Times ran a remarkable correction today.

"A heading in the Business Digest column on Monday about the prospects for Lifetime magazine exceeded the facts of the article. The article said that the two companies behind the new magazine — the Hearst Corporation and the Walt Disney Company — faced 'formidable' odds in making it a success. The chances were not described as 'dire.'"

Precisely! "Exceeded the facts" by saying that things are "dire"! Could any correction more perfectly capture the essence of everything that is wrong with the Times' business coverage -- indeed, its all-pervading editorial slant, too?

Isn't this just what happens every time Gretchen Morgenson or Floyd Norris spin up the latest putative accounting scandal or CEO abuse? Isn't this just what happens every time Daniel Altman or Louis Uchitelle come up with another reason to think the economy is heading for depression? Isn't this just what happens every time Paul Krugman strings together a set of unsourced gossip-column blind-items to make it seem that the Bush administration is leading the nation to economic "catastrophe"?

"Exceeded the facts"... "not described as 'dire'"... exactly!

The only mystery is why this -- among the thousands of instances of precisely the same thing -- merited a correction.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:06 PM | link   

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SELL DELONG SHORT   
Robert Musil has followed up on my comments earlier today on Brad DeLong, adding his own scathing critiques and asking some pretty damning questions about DeLong's integrity.

In reading Musil's comments and reviewing my own, I have to say I am struck by how astonishing it is that DeLong -- a leftist of such self-evident bias and a blogger with so little respect for the intellectual property rights of others -- is nevertheless so frequently cited and linked as an authority by bloggers who normally wouldn't touch a guy like this even with an 11-foot poll. I can only explain it by guessing that many otherwise intelligent, thoughtful and discriminating commentators are cowed by DeLong's feverishly maintained pose as an uber-expert with an academic pedigree in the inscrutable mysteries of economic science. They're simply too modest to take him on, any more than they'd take on, say, a professor of physics on some point about quantum electrodynamics.

But they shouldn't be so modest -- and they certainly shouldn't let DeLong or any other economist cow them. "Economic science" is a contradiction in terms. Sure, there's some real truth down there buried under the heaps of elephant-shit. But 90% of what is said about economics in public discourse is just plain politics. Be not afraid, fellow bloggers -- this guy's no scientist, even if he does feed from the fancified publicly-funded trough of UC Berkeley. He is, to use his own words, just one of many "lobbyists hoping to get their names on lists of people owed favors." We can all take him off a few of those lists right now -- just by not making the mistake of citing him as the expert he only pretends to be.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:33 AM | link   

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DELONG: LETTER IMPERFECT   
It's been a while since I've written about the blogging UC Berkeley economist Brad DeLong. That's because I can barely force myself to visit what Enron consultant Paul Krugman called DeLong's "influential Web site." For one thing, the site is so overbrimming with stolen copyrighted material it takes forever to load -- and once it finally does, I feel guilty reading it.

But the worst thing about the site is the way it radiates DeLong's smugness and self-righteous self-satisfaction over being an academic economist. He constantly glorifies academic economists -- and himself, by extension -- as though they were anointed keepers of some special knowledge denied the rest of us -- an objective knowledge, a scientific knowledge held consistently among all economists, but somehow only manifested by those economists who agree with DeLong's public policy preferences, and heretically betrayed by those economists who disagree.

I can think of no other academic discipline that has earned less of a right to smugness and self-righteous self-satisfaction than economics. Is there any other field, the teachings of which have been applied so broadly in public policy for so many years... with such consistently chaotic and disastrous results? Yet it's easy to imagine how someone like DeLong comes to feel the way he does. Every day this pudgy dweeb gets to lord it over a bunch of helpless students who have to treat him like a demigod or else suffer the consequences, and who are no doubt terribly awed by the fact that DeLong writes a too-hip column for Wired, and by his  online CV which is almost three years out of date so that he can still claim that he is a columnist for the New York Times from "2000-present" (when, in fact, his last of only three Times columns was in May, 2000).

So go to this demigod's "influential Web site" and scroll down past all the stolen goods and see what he wrote yesterday about the letter signed by 250 economists endorsing President Bush's tax-cut plans. DeLong starts out with a lie when he calls this "The Republican Economists' Letter," as though that were its official title, and completely without evidence that the signatories are, in fact, Republicans (I signed it, and I am not a Republican). For DeLong, those purported Republicans who signed the letter must not be legitimate economists -- keepers of the objective knowledge, the scientific knowledge! -- for no other reason than because they signed the letter agreeing with something with which DeLong disagrees. So for no other reason they are "...people who don't know very much about the federal budget, old Republicans who should have known better, young Republicans who I hope will soon learn better, political hacks hoping for government jobs, lobbyists hoping to get their names on lists of people owed favors, and a smattering of True Believers with fringe views." I wonder which of those I am? Not being a Republican, I guess I can eliminate two categories.

There are three signatories, however, whom DeLong feels he cannot dismiss so easily as hacks and lobbyists -- Gregory Mankiw, Michael Boskin, and Martin Feldstein. He says, "I don't think the letter accurately reflects their views--meaning that if I held their views about how the economy works and what a good society looks like, and if I held their political allegiances, I would not have signed the letter." DeLong even has lots of advice (unsolicited) about what changes in the letter they should have insisted upon before signing the letter. But for some reason they signed it, without taking DeLong's advice, and acting as though they know their own "views about how the economy works and what a good society looks like" better than DeLong does. Economists can be funny that way, sometimes.

Too bad -- because if they'd only listened to DeLong, they would have "materially improved the chances that Bush Administration economic policy would move in a positive direction...and aiding politicians whom you do by and large see as the best (or the least evil) alternative." But no... they didn't listen to DeLong because "The Bush Administration appears to be dominated by media affairs and political affairs people to a previously-unseen degree." Appears? How... because economists who signed the letter didn't listen to DeLong?

Finally, if it's not enough to make up the political affiliation and assassinate the characters of the economists who signed the letter, DeLong starts in on all the economists who didn't sign the letter. He's got a long list of people who should have signed the letter (according to DeLong -- just like Mankiw, Boskin and Feldstein should have insisted on DeLong's changes to the letter before they did sign it)... and the fact that they didn't sign it means there's something terribly wrong with the Bush plan. You see, when Republican economists do sign the letter it's because they're hacks and lobbyists, and when they don't sign the letter, there's something wrong with the letter. And in all this, there's not a single word about another letter, signed by 400 economists who oppose Bush's plan. Since there's not a single word about it, there's no opportunity for DeLong to call that one "The Democratic Economists' Letter" -- or to mention the fact that he, himself, did not sign it (must be something wrong with the letter).

Oh man... can you imagine being this guy's student, and being dependent on him for a grade? Well, thank goodness we're talking UC Berkeley here, where most of the tuition -- and, I suppose, DeLong's "influential Web site" -- is subsidized by the long-suffering California taxpayer.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:02 AM | link   


Tuesday, February 25, 2003

MY TRIVIAL IMMORTALITY    From the new 20th Anniversary edition...


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:13 PM | link   

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THE GRAY LADY DOTH PROTEST TOO MUCH  
New York Times Executive Editor Howell Raines must really be feeling the heat. He's lashing out at critics that a man of his prestige ought to be ignoring. Why? Not because Raines gives a damn about the critics -- he doesn't have to defend himself from Andrew Sullivan or Mickey Kaus... or even me. No... read between the lines and you'll see that Raines is justifying himself before his corporate masters. He's in trouble.

Why else would we witness the spectacle of a man at the top of the pyramid of American journalism accepting the Editor of the Year Award of the National Press Foundation and using the occasion -- that of all occasions! -- to lash out at his critics for "an exercise of, in [sic] disinformation, of alarming proportions. This attempt to convince the audience of the world’s most ideology free newspapers that they’re being subjected to agenda driven news reflecting a liberal bias."

If the endless cavalcade of the crusading editorials and the Bush-bashing op-eds and the slanted news stories isn't bias, then what is bias? Raines offers a definition:

"The most important development of the post-war period among journalists, American journalists, was the acceptance throughout our profession of an ethic that says we report and edit the news for our papers, but we don’t wear the political collar of our owners, or the government, or any political party. It is that legacy we must protect with our diligent stewardship."

But that's not "bias" -- Raines is talking about an entirely separate matter: the issue of independence from influence. He can't think that his critics are dumb enough to miss seeing him palm that card. We all know that just because you're independent doesn't mean you're not biased.

No, it's not the critics that Raines is talking to at all. He's talking to his boss, Times publisher and major stockholder Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr. That's the guy who hired Raines to be editorial page editor in 1992 because, according to Ken Auletta's June 10, 2002 portrait of Raines in the New Yorker,

"He knew that Raines, like him, took liberal positions on affirmative action, capital punishment, abortion rights, health insurance, welfare, the environment, and the role of an activist government."

That's the guy who had "the political collar of our owners" firmly around Raines's neck all those years before choosing Raines to be executive editor. According to Auletta,

"Sulzberger says he sometimes looked at draft editorials and maybe, once a month or so, 'made suggestions.' The publisher is being too modest, several members of the editorial board say. 'Arthur sometimes edited our pieces and Howell never told us,' one board member says, not in anger but in appreciation for Raines's diplomacy."

And that's the guy who has to be worrying that maybe the critics are right, and that maybe for the sake of pursuing "liberal positions" he's letting Raines systematically destroy the brand equity of a once-great newspaper. And the Sulzberger family's wealth along with it.

So it's not Andrew Sullivan or Mickey Kaus -- or even me -- to whom Raines is speaking from the podium at the National Press Foundation. He doesn't even know we exist. He's talking to the boss. He's trying to convince Sulzberger that the freedom to have an egregious liberal bias is a "legacy we must protect with our diligent stewardship." No matter how much it costs.

But hey, it's only money. And as Raines' hand-picked attack-dog Paul Krugman wrote last year,

"The influential dynasties of the 20th century, like the Kennedys, the Rockefellers and, yes, the Sulzbergers, faced a public suspicious of inherited position; they overcame that suspicion by demonstrating a strong sense of noblesse oblige, justifying their existence by standing for high principles."

How many billions will the Sulzberger family have to lose before they get tired of "justifying their existence" this way?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:51 AM | link   


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