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Unindicted co-counterconspirator-in-chief Donald Luskin will appear on CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Don will be talking about -- you guessed it -- politics, the economy, and the market.

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Friday, January 24, 2003

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DELONG'S FINGERPRINTS ON WSJ SCREW-UP   
Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that White House Council of Economic Advisors chair Glenn Hubbard is leaving the Bush administration, and a few hours later Reuters carried the story that Hubbard denies it.

Hubbard said, "They didn't talk to me." Indeed not. It isn't until the fourth paragraph of the Journal story that we are told that the source is only "administration officials," and not Hubbard himself. The story contains no statement from Hubbard, nor any statement by the reporters Bob Davis and Greg Ip that they lifted a finger to try to get one.

The only named source in the story is -- what do you know? -- none other than blogging UC Berkeley economics professor Brad DeLong. DeLong has made quite a name for himself the last couple weeks by using his "influential Web site" as a sniper's nest for character assassination aimed against Hubbard,  repeatedly accusing Hubbard of lapses in professional ethics just because his nuanced judgment of the real-world impact of the proposed Bush tax-cuts is different than the abstract formulas and idiosyncratic case-histories in his textbooks.

And -- what do you know? -- DeLong is already starting in on Greg Mankiw, the Harvard economics professor said in the story to be Hubbard's likely successor. DeLong is quoted praising Mankiw's fine work as a textbook author: "'He explains the principles of macroeconomics in ways that make them seem crystal clear, totally obvious and necessarily true,' Mr. DeLong said." And then comes the gotcha, straight out of DeLong's playbook:

"If he is selected, some of his past writings may prove embarrassing for the administration. He has written widely that higher budget deficits can harm the economy. The White House, on the other hand, is arguing that tax cuts, which would balloon the federal deficit, won't boost interest rates"

DeLong should be delighted to see his pudgy fingerprints all over this story, even it proved to be an erroneous embarrassment to the Journal. After all, DeLong himself argues that the only standard for the quality of economics reporting is the extent to which it gives space for his views. For example, it's not enough that a Washington Post story on Hubbard Tuesday quoted DeLong extensively, and said he and Paul Krugman think Hubbard is "sacrificing his sterling academic reputation with politically motivated but nonsensical economic utterances." DeLong complained on his "influential Web site" yesterday,

"Think of how much better--how more informative to the readers--the story would have been had it spent a few words on why Paul [Krugman] and I are annoyed...How do we create a press corps that will think that its business is to inform readers about economic policies... How do we create a press corps that will raise the level of the debate over economic policy in this country, rather than lower it? God only knows. I certainly don't."

DeLong knows full well that, while he may disagree with Hubbard's politics, there is absolutely no breach of ethics, nor hypocrisy -- nor even any intellectual conflict -- between Hubbard's purely scholastic views expressed in his textbook and his real-world views expressed in the political arena. One is simple theory, the other is complex reality.

DeLong himself presents a perfect example of this principle on his own "influential Web site" just yesterday. On Wednesday he had quoted as "deeply meaningful" Clinton administration Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers saying, "In the history of the world, no one has ever washed a rented car." Yep -- a great, if simple, abstraction about economic behavior. But then yesterday DeLong quotes many comments from his readers about how they had, in fact, washed a rented car. That's the complex reality.

So I have to draw my own very negative conclusions about DeLong's motives when he won't he understand how the same counterpoint of theory and reality could operate in Glenn Hubbard. Hubbard could, in the purely theoretical context of an economics textbook, offer a formula for how government deficits lead to higher interest rates. And at the same time, he could say that in the real world this relationship doesn't always hold (as, indeed, it is now not holding in the world's two largest economies -- the US and Japan -- both of which are running large deficits, and both of which have low and falling interest rates).

What's left to say about DeLong... all I can do now is to quote a voice from history, and challenge him to hear it:

"Let us not assassinate this lad further, Senator. You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:19 AM | link   


Thursday, January 23, 2003

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UN-FACT OF THE DAY: UNEQUAL INEQUALITY   
Today the Wall Street Journal reports on new survey of US income and wealth just published by the Federal Reserve.

"Despite the widely hailed creation of a new investor class over the 1990s, the fruits of the stock-market boom and the pain of its subsequent bust were felt mainly by a small group of wealthy households, a new report by the Federal Reserve shows...Just as the wealthiest disproportionately enjoyed the boom, the pain has also been concentrated among them."

The New York Times covers the same survey this way.

"Economic inequality increased markedly as the boom of the 1990's fizzled, even as incomes increased at almost every level, according to a detailed new survey by the Federal Reserve released today... The wealth of those in the top 10 percent of incomes surged much more than the wealth of those in any other group."

Not one word -- not one hint -- that people who made the most in the boom also lost the most in the bust.

Is this what Paul Krugman meant when he said that the New York Times "bends over backwards to find two sides to every story"?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 12:15 AM | link   


Wednesday, January 22, 2003

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THE BIG SUCK-UP   
You just gotta love the balls on Paul Krugman, former paid Enron advisory board member, New York Times columnist, and maximum leader of the "little people." In today's Howie Kurtz column, in which Krugman is celebrated as the man who dares to call President Bush a liar, here's a howler of his own -- and what a suck-up it is. Are you reading this, Howell? Enjoy.

"'...he says... 'The Times is actually -- it's clear the editorial page is mildly liberal and most of the staff must be mildly liberal. But in reporting on issues, most of the time it bends over backwards to find two sides to every story.'"


Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:06 PM | link   

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UN-FACT OF THE DAY: HE SAID, HE SAID   
My informant "Irrational Exuberance" points out this item from Reuters today.

"[European Central Bank council member Ernst] Welteke's comments on the next likely interest rate move by the ECB were given different emphasis by the two Financial Times publications.

"The FTD's headline from the interview said Welteke was against an interest rate cut while its sister publication, the Financial Times ran the interview under the headline 'Bundesbank chief signals ECB has scope to move on rates.'

"'In theory, there is still room to move (on rates),' Welteke told the Financial Times.

"'Whether the bank uses this room depends on the outlook for inflation,' he added.

"But he also warned of the consequences of a further cut in interest rates in the lead quotes emphasised by the FTD."

The Reuters report wraps up with,

"Welteke said he did not expect an ECB review of its monetary strategy in the first half of this year to lead to major changes.

"'I believe it will remain the same, with perhaps a refinement here and there.'"

As "Irrational Exuberance" puts it, "The conflicting Financial Times-affiliated newspaper headlines do not necessarily manifest deliberate media bias but do demonstrate the projection of ambiguous content from different perspectives as well as the precariousness of attempting to capture content with a recapitulating headline."

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:40 PM | link   


Tuesday, January 21, 2003

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CLASSLESS   
I guess it's supposed to be a joke, because it begins, "A liberal and a conservative were sitting in a bar." That's the way a lot of jokes begin, so this must be one. It continues,

"Then Bill Gates walked in. 'Hey, we're rich!' shouted the conservative. 'The average person in this bar is now worth more than a billion!' 'That's silly,' replied the liberal. 'Bill Gates raises the average, but that doesn't make you or me any richer.' 'Hah!' said the conservative, 'I see you're still practicing the discredited politics of class warfare.'"

What can I say? I just don't get it. This isn't a joke at all -- every word of it is true.

I'm not really sure what former paid Enron advisory board member Paul Krugman thinks he's accomplishing by starting his New York Times column with this putative joke today. I suppose it sets up a straw man he can demolish. And Krugman obviously thinks that if he himself brings up the subject of class warfare, he will somehow pre-empt his critics from accusing him of it. He does it in just about every column now.

But whatever Krugman's purpose, it reveals with stunning clarity the way this man of the "little people" sees the world. As far as I'm concerned, it's simply a fact that when a "big people" like Bill Gates enters any environment, he makes everyone around him wealthier in countless ways -- through the productivity his products add to their working lives, the value he creates for their investment portfolios, the public services his taxes pay for, and just the plain old inspiration of showing what superlative achievement looks like.

Bill Gates can come into my bar any time. I'm buying.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:43 PM | link   


Monday, January 20, 2003

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UN-FACT OF THE DAY: BRAD DELONG'S STRANGE TIMES   
Here's an interesting item from UC Berkeley economics professor Brad DeLong's "influential Web site."

In DeLong's curriculum vitae, you'll see this:

"Administrative and Editorial:

"Columnist, New York Times "Economic Scene" (March 2000-present)."

Now go to the New York Times archives and do this search for DeLong's byline from "March 2000-present).

The search results show that the first column was in March 2000, that much is true. The second column was in April 2000. The third and final column was in May 2000.

I guess it didn't work out. And May 2000 isn't exactly the "present," now is it?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:38 PM | link   


Sunday, January 19, 2003

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J-LO EARNED IT... BUT CAN SHE KEEP IT?   
If I had to state a single idea that would most help you to fight the conspiracy to keep you poor and stupid, it would be this:

You must believe it is fair and just for you to keep the wealth that flows from the honest work of your own labor and your own mind.

It sounds so simple, and so true --and indeed it is! Yet the politicians and the media harangue you endlessly and in endless ways to make you forsake it, playing to your guilt, your sympathy and even your greed.

How astonishing it is, then, to hear this idea spoken on the pages of the Sunday New York Times Magazine. Normally these pages are reserved for sermons about the plight of the impoverished, the greed of America's plutocrats, and the shame of conspicuous consumption. Considering that such sermons are sandwiched in between fashion features, full-page ads for luxury cars and jewelry, and classifieds for multimillion dollar estates and exclusive private academies -- and that the Times is owned by a company with a market value of $6.9 billion, of which at least 10% is owned by a single family -- I would say "it's about time."

In a commentary today, Rob Walker tells us "When Diamonds and Escalades Are O.K."  Follow the link and read the whole thing if you want (and wade through all the details about lifestyles and marketing strategies of rich and famous rappers), but I can summarize it in just a single sentence:

Singer/actress Jennifer Lopez deserves to be rich (and to flaunt it) because she earned it honestly through talent and hard work, but former Tyco CEO Dennis Kozlowski doesn't because he earned it dishonestly, through fraud.

Isn't that just the basic morality we absorbed through our skins when we were kids? You deserve it if you worked for it, but you don't deserve it if you stole it. It doesn't take a genius.

What does it tell you about the New York Times that they would consider this blinding glimpse of the obvious to be worthy of a column? It tells you that, to them, it's not obvious at all -- this is news... man bites dog! But at the same time it makes me wonder how something like this slipped by the editors, normally so eager to play their part in the conspiracy to keep you poor and stupid. Maybe they didn't really understand what they were printing -- after all, on the surface, it has all the New York Times signature elements: a few good swipes at a greedy CEO, and a "sophisticated exegesis of a sociological phenomenon" (i.e., salacious details about sexy pop-stars).

The idea that you deserve to keep what you honestly worked for is as subversive as it is simple. It means that the distribution of wealth in our society is fair and just provided only that it was arrived at honestly. Even if every penny of wealth ends up in just one guy's pocket -- that may be dysfunctional, but if he earned it fair and square, then no can say that it is unjust.

This completely flies in the face of most public commentary about the distribution of wealth, which looks only at the fairness or justice of the outcome, without regard to how that outcome was achieved. Think about it -- what do you ever hear on this subject but protests about the unfairness and injustice of the "maldistribution of wealth" or "the gap between rich and poor" or "income inequality" from politicians and the media? How often do you hear statistics, cited as though no justification were remotely possible, such as "annual compensation of the top 100 C.E.O.'s went from $1.3 million -- 39 times the pay of an average worker -- to $37.5 million, more than 1,000 times the pay of ordinary workers"? This quote comes from an 8000-word article by Paul Krugman in the New York Times Magazine itself, just last October.

The fact is that if you define fairness and justice in the distribution of wealth in terms of some desired outcome -- say, equality -- then you necessarily have to ignore the history of how the wealth was earned -- through creativity or crime? -- or how it got from the people who unequally earned it to the people who equally possess it -- through charity or expropriation? All that matters is that it ends up equally distributed at the end of day.

But think for a moment of what would be entailed in actually achieving the egalitarian outcome. Suppose someone like Paul Krugman could wave a magic wand and -- poof! -- all wealth were perfectly equally distributed. Within moments it would become unequal again. There'd be some Jenny from the block who'd turn out to be a great singer and dancer and actress, and people would happily choose to each give her a little bit of their wealth in exchange for watching her perform, and -- poof! -- after a year of that and she'd be "the rich." So how do we get back to a state of equality again -- simply seize Jenny's money and give it back to her fans? Force her to sing and dance and act for free in the first place?

Even if we manage to create a perfect socialist utopia, in which everyone pools their wealth according to their ability and draws from the pool according their need -- everyone has an equal share of everything -- what's to prevent someone from deciding to do without his entire ration of tofu that day and give some of it to Jenny so she would sing and dance and act in her spare time, after she was done with her day of tilling the soil on the commune? As the late philosopher Robert Nozick so ably put it in his masterpiece Anarchy, State and Utopia, to maintain equality "The socialist society would have to forbid capitalist acts between consenting adults."

To be sure, those who operate the conspiracy to keep you poor and stupid would be shocked -- shocked! -- to think that you misunderstood their noble efforts as necessitating such a deep invasion of your liberties. They've never talked about forcing you to do anything, or expropriating anything from you. No, all they've ever done is asked that you pay your fair share of taxes. What they don't want you to figure out, though, is that in their ideal world Jenny's "fair share" is precisely the amount required to return her wealth to the level that's equal with everyone else's (but without redistributing her wealth to anyone directly, of course -- it would be returned to them -- sort of -- in the form of valuable -- sort of -- government services funded by Jenny's riches).

Would people like Paul Krugman say that even that is not what they mean? Then what do they mean? If people like Krugman think that Jenny isn't entitled to keep her honestly earned wealth, and they don't intend to seize it in order to achieve the income equality they preach about, then what exactly are they saying? That there will be some sort of indefinite compromise in between, where Jenny will get to keep some of her excess wealth according to some decision process that someone -- perhaps Paul Krugman himself -- would be responsible for administering?

Wouldn't that be a wet-dream come true for Paul Krugman and the editors of the New York Times -- all the "little people" as Krugman describes himself -- to have Jennifer Lopez come to them as a supplicant, dependent for her wealth on their sophisticated exegesis? If you ever wonder what the people who operate the conspiracy to keep your poor and stupid are after, this is one of the answers. Don't pretend it's not.

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:45 PM | link   

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UN-FACT OF THE DAY: THE COLUMN-CUM-CLIFF NOTES  
It's Sunday... so what time is it, boys and girls? That's right, it's Gretchen Morgenson time!

This week, Morgenson's Sunday New York Times column is all about how overvalued the stock of Verizon is. But wait, it's not really Gretchen's column at all -- it has Morgenson's byline, alright, but virtually every single idea in it is attributed to an analyst, Susan Kalla of Friedman Billings Ramsey. So what's the value-add in this? Why not just staple a copy of Kalla's research to the New York Times Sunday business section and dispense with Morgenson altogether? Looks to me like all Morgenson did was insert "Ms. Kalla said" and "Ms. Kalla figure" every few sentences, in between the stuff that Ms. Kalla said and figured in the first place without any help from Morgenson. Why, of all the opinions of all the analysts covering all the stocks in all the world, did Morgenson pick this one as especially deserving for this particular column-cum-Cliff Notes this fine Sunday morning? Who knows -- Morgenson only says that Kalla is, for unstated reasons, "perhaps the sharpest person covering telecommunications at a brokerage firm today..." Which means, I suppose, that "perhaps" she isn't. We'll just never know which.

Actually -- sadly -- there's nothing unusual about this kind of investment non-commentary (although it's disappointing to see someone of Morgenson's Pulitzer Prize-winning stature stooping to it). A large portion of the investment commentary offered in print and on television is just like this -- nothing more than giving some analyst, portfolio manager, broker, whatever, the ink or the air to tell the public what he's telling his clients. I know this game well -- I'm one of those analysts, myself, and I play as often as they'll let me.

If the financial media had to actually develop this analytic content themselves, they'd go broke. So think of it as a barter deal. The analysts, portfolio managers, brokers, whatevers, give their content to the media, and the media gives them back what amounts to advertising. Unregulated. Untaxed. Sweet.

And if people thought this commentary actually came from reporters, who'd believe it? Remember Morgenson's tragically comical 1999 column in which she said that AT&T was "an internet stock for widows and orphans"? That howler was her idea -- there was an analyst quoted only incidentally in that column, cited in the manner of an authority to validate Morgenson's own opinion. That call turned out to be so embarrassingly wrong -- even wronger than Salomon Smith Barney's Jack Grubman's infamous AT&T buy rating that Morgenson made such a flap about -- that she lied about it to cover it up in a column late last year.

So Morgenson's learned her lesson. Picture her talking to herself in the mirror: "Gretchen, honey, you're just not paid enough to take the kind of career risks these analysts take. From now on, just quote the analyst! Hey -- if it turns out that the analyst is right, you can do your AT&T cover-up in reverse! If Verizon goes down, say how brilliantly right 'your' column was! What the hell -- you've already got your Pulitzer..."

What the hell, indeed. No one will remember anyway. Does anyone really think that Morgenson's column in anything more than the ink on the other side of the ad from AT&T or Verizon or Salomon Smith Barney?

Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:20 PM | link   


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